First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

We just don’t know!

There’s also a psychological element here likely arising from the social media era. 

Exactly! Our memories cherry pick the Euro nailing the key events of the last 20 years (2013, Sandy, etc.)

So you are saying that the forecasts you got today for Tuesday are more accurate than they were 15 years ago. People keep mentioning selective Cherry pickin memory . I suppose its better than no memory like some are exhibiting in this thread.

[Damage In Tolland]

Folks cocked up , high , Hammertime tonight 

[Ginx snewx]

The other item is 15 years ago some of the posters in here were like 15 yrs old without a real clue

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally disagree and pretty condescending as you have no idea why people think the model forecasts outside day 3 are not that much better, as to induce higher confidence in forecasts.  Thats a figment of imagination. 

I thought dope was supposed to make you mellow?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

 Hammertime 

What's Ryan say? 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So its bias flipped to overamped super deep highly convective POS and that's better.  I suggest here forecasters can't figure out the sensible weather biases anymore and it is infuriating. 

Idk what we’re even arguing anymore. I had been saying the GFS was likely overdoing the amplification the past couple days. But the gfs and ec were polar outliers and guess what? They’ve been slowly meeting in the middle. But I don’t recall the GFS being the NW extreme a common occurrence. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, kdxken said:

I thought dope was supposed to make you mellow?

Dope?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

What's Ryan say? 

He’s in Atlanta but siding with Nam 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dope?

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s in Atlanta but siding with Nam 

No surprise.  84 hr NAM lol Jesus 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The other item is 15 years ago some of the posters in here were like 15 yrs old without a real clue

Some of us were 45 years old 15 years ago.  Didn't have a clue then, don't have a clue now.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dope?

Argue with AI

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

So you are saying that the forecasts you got today for Tuesday are more accurate than they were 15 years ago. People keep mentioning selective Cherry pickin memory . I suppose its better than no memory like some are exhibiting in this thread.

No. I’m more on the side of the forecast I got today for Tuesday is different than the one I got 15 years ago in terms of the information at our fingertips.
15 years ago…. What model output did we have? Particularly from the ECMWF suite… 500 mb heights? MSLP?

We’d have to wait for one of the mets with a WSI membership to tell us what it showed. today…. We can all see it and infer our own takeaways. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, kdxken said:

 

Dope to me has always been Heroin Opium but I guess. 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I do wonder if it benefited from only being run 2 times a day. 

We benefited from it for sure.

Say you see 12z and a storm is tracking in location X…. then we have to wait until 00z and its only 30 miles north…  it seems like it’s making small movements.

What we didn’t see was 18z that was 50 miles south… then 80 miles north 6 hours later…now we see an intermediary run and think the model is all over the place.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Some of us were 45 years old 15 years ago.  Didn't have a clue then, don't have a clue now.

True me too but too much fun.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dope to me has always been Heroin Opium but I guess. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Idk what we’re even arguing anymore. I had been saying the GFS was likely overdoing the amplification the past couple days. But the gfs and ec were polar outliers and guess what? They’ve been slowly meeting in the middle. But I don’t recall the GFS being the NW extreme a common occurrence. 

I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. 
 

I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys

[Ginx snewx]

Here's my gig. This place gets very boring and repetitive so we try to stimulate convo and it works. Peeps get real deep thoughts not many fly by night "must be dope" posts. I am never angry but definitely always up for a debate.  Sometimes it's good to be contra

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally disagree and pretty condescending as you have no idea why people think the model forecasts outside day 3 are not that much better, as to induce higher confidence in forecasts.  Thats a figment of imagination. 

Condescend this  lol.

It’s all good Ginxy, I respect your opinion.  I just think we have too much info now and it skews our perception.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just please don’t let the NAM be right 

[UnitedWx]

45 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

OT but is the east side of Simsbury really low in elevation? I'm surprised you're < 200'

Quite a bit of variation through town. East side on the Bloomfield line can have a couple inches, and the west side of town have 4 times that

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We benefited from it for sure.

Say you see 12z and a storm is tracking in location X…. then we have to wait until 00z and its only 30 miles north…  it seems like it’s making small movements.

What we didn’t see was 18z that was 50 miles south… then 80 miles north 6 hours later…now we see an intermediary run and think the model is all over the place.

I don't think this is inherently true... more runs should provide smaller moves per run if the model is stable and the assimilation is consistent.  

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just please don’t let the NAM be right 

It will be and for the rest of the winter no matter what people will ride it.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Condescend this  lol.

It’s all good Ginxy, I respect your opinion.  I just think we have too much info now and it skews our perception.

The more info the more we should be able to assimilate the data instead you  claim the opposite.  That is contrary to scientific reasoning. 

[gonegalt]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dope to me has always been Heroin Opium but I guess. 

Weed is dope.

Been smokin dope since '70.

No one ever thought dope meant junk except Raymond Chandler readers.

 

[radarman]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. 
 

I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys

Has the AI Euro scored a coup yet?  I was really interested and watched it closely last year, not just here but across the CONUS, and my anecdotal take was that it sucked for east coast cyclogenesis and atmospheric rivers out west.  But maybe I missed something.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, gonegalt said:

Weed is dope.

Been smokin dope since '70.

No one ever thought dope meant junk except Raymond Chandler readers.

 

You see the doc and movie Dope Sick? Pretty sure that's not weed

[gonegalt]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

You see the doc and movie Dope Sick? Pretty sure that's not weed

I never use show biz as evidence of anything.

 

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

No. I’m more on the side of the forecast I got today for Tuesday is different than the one I got 15 years ago in terms of the information at our fingertips.
15 years ago…. What model output did we have? Particularly from the ECMWF suite… 500 mb heights? MSLP?

We’d have to wait for one of the mets with a WSI membership to tell us what it showed. today…. We can all see it and infer our own takeaways. 

True but it can be known now and shared some of us had the keys to WSI