Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DocATL]

Euro is purgatory. We can just pray that these turd dusters are enough to offset sublimation.

[Baum]

7 hours ago, DocATL said:

I mean NYC metro got a nice hit. Nearly a foot in Central Park. Next weekends’ potential storm could be a hold-my-beer type step up from this last one. It’s a glorious east coast pattern.


.

I service 50 trucking Distribution sites for snow removal from Delaware up through Boston. And run operations for national snow removal firm. Very aware of who’s getting the goods and who’s not. Boston just took a big hit no doubt. Other areas pretty much a standard 6-10 across the board. But since it was east coast plenty of exaggeration. We move these type of snows here in Chicago like it’s nothing. They may get hit again. But can almost guarantee we will again as well. 

[DocATL]

I service 50 trucking Distribution sites for snow removal from Delaware up through Boston. And run operations for national snow removal firm. Very aware of who’s getting the goods and who’s not. Boston just took a big hit no doubt. Other areas pretty much a standard 6-10 across the board. But since it was east coast plenty of exaggeration. We move these type of snows here in Chicago like it’s nothing. They may get hit again. But can almost guarantee we will again as well. 

I’m sure you are right. Definitely nothing record setting or even remotely close. I remember when I was in medical school in Washington DC we had one season where it hardly snowed at all and another where they had 2‘ over 48 hours. Similar experiences in NYC as well. Lots of boom or bust.


.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Baum said:

I service 50 trucking Distribution sites for snow removal from Delaware up through Boston. And run operations for national snow removal firm. Very aware of who’s getting the goods and who’s not. Boston just took a big hit no doubt. Other areas pretty much a standard 6-10 across the board. But since it was east coast plenty of exaggeration. We move these type of snows here in Chicago like it’s nothing. They may get hit again. But can almost guarantee we will again as well. 

Detroit must take the case for salting lol. I mean theres been multiple plows too, but i heard some contractors are low on salt already.

[cyclone77]

Let's just skip to April please.

 

[A-L-E-K]

Riding it^

 

[Baum]

10 hours ago, DocATL said:

I’m sure you are right. Definitely nothing record setting or even remotely close. I remember when I was in medical school in Washington DC we had one season where it hardly snowed at all and another where they had 2‘ over 48 hours. Similar experiences in NYC as well. Lots of boom 

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit must take the case for salting lol. I mean theres been multiple plows too, but i heard some contractors are low on salt already.

Salt shortages everywhere. Same as last season. Not sure why. Won’t be long rivers will freeze up and can’t get shipments down river.

[mimillman]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Riding it^

 

The main focus during the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend remains on the potential for another round of
accumulating lake effect snow (potentially a long-duration
event) as another sprawling ~1050 mb arctic high descends out of
Saskatchewan and Manitoba late Thursday night into Friday. As
this occurs, 850 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to around
minus 20 C, which in turn will result in building inversion
heights over the lake. LES parameters certainly look sufficient
to support periods of more intense lake effect snow, with lake-
induced ELs nearing 9-10 kft at times, especially through Friday
with 850 mb temps forecast to warm through Saturday.

Initial LES looks to develop late Thursday night into early
Friday morning. It`s possible that this initial activity has a
somewhat difficult time organizing given some degree of wind
shear in the boundary layer as a synoptic scale trough pivots
southwest out of the Upper Great Lakes. By later Friday night
and Saturday, however, guidance depicts generally lessening
shear as the bulk of the atmospheric flow shifts northeasterly.
Guidance then depicts LES organizing into a single dominant band
during this time as low-level convergence maximizes down the
long axis of the lake. During this time, ELs are forecast to
fall a bit as 850 mb temps warm, which may have a bit of a
modulating effect on LES intensity. That said, given the progged
increasing convergence, even 6-7 kft ELs will be more than
sufficient to support periods of heavier snowfall.

At this point, it remains too early to hone in on specifics, but
guidance trends continue towards an impactful period of lake
effect snow in our area, including Chicago, parts of NE and
east-central Illinois, and NW Indiana from late Thursday night
through Saturday night, and possibly even through Sunday.
Guidance at this time does indicate the potential for quite a
bit of band wobbling, which in turn could limit residence times
and overall totals, but a more quasistationary north-south
oriented band is also advertised (CMC, UKMET for example).
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will have the
potential to exacerbate impacts due to a very light/fluffy snow
and lessened effectiveness of road treatments.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Baum said:

 

Thats just crazy. Lol and Detroit sits on a salt mine.

Plow/Salt contractors in SE MI have been on overtime every week since Thanksgiving with exception of 2 weeks (Christmas week and 2nd week of January).

[RCNYILWX]

The main focus during the end of the week and into the upcomingweekend remains on the potential for another round ofaccumulating lake effect snow (potentially a long-durationevent) as another sprawling ~1050 mb arctic high descends out ofSaskatchewan and Manitoba late Thursday night into Friday. Asthis occurs, 850 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to aroundminus 20 C, which in turn will result in building inversionheights over the lake. LES parameters certainly look sufficientto support periods of more intense lake effect snow, with lake-induced ELs nearing 9-10 kft at times, especially through Fridaywith 850 mb temps forecast to warm through Saturday.Initial LES looks to develop late Thursday night into earlyFriday morning. It`s possible that this initial activity has asomewhat difficult time organizing given some degree of windshear in the boundary layer as a synoptic scale trough pivotssouthwest out of the Upper Great Lakes. By later Friday nightand Saturday, however, guidance depicts generally lesseningshear as the bulk of the atmospheric flow shifts northeasterly.Guidance then depicts LES organizing into a single dominant bandduring this time as low-level convergence maximizes down thelong axis of the lake. During this time, ELs are forecast tofall a bit as 850 mb temps warm, which may have a bit of amodulating effect on LES intensity. That said, given the proggedincreasing convergence, even 6-7 kft ELs will be more thansufficient to support periods of heavier snowfall.At this point, it remains too early to hone in on specifics, butguidance trends continue towards an impactful period of lakeeffect snow in our area, including Chicago, parts of NE andeast-central Illinois, and NW Indiana from late Thursday nightthrough Saturday night, and possibly even through Sunday.Guidance at this time does indicate the potential for quite abit of band wobbling, which in turn could limit residence timesand overall totals, but a more quasistationary north-southoriented band is also advertised (CMC, UKMET for example).Temperatures in the teens and single digits will have thepotential to exacerbate impacts due to a very light/fluffy snowand lessened effectiveness of road treatments.

Nice signal on the 12z globals so far, particularly the UKMET, which did well with the weekend LE.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

[ILSNOW]

14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Nice signal on the 12z globals so far, particularly the UKMET, which did well with the weekend LE.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk
 

Alek= Lake effect king

[McHenrySnow]

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Let's just skip to April please.

 

We've been dry for months on end and have had dry conditions all but one summer in the past 5 with severe drought at times. Not sure why you think it'll be any different in April. 

[sbnwx85]

Just now, ILSNOW said:

Alek= Lake effect king

[Chicago916]

If the RRFS model run verifies, we riot

[A-L-E-K]

3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

We've been dry for months on end and have had dry conditions all but one summer in the past 5 with severe drought at times. Not sure why you think it'll be any different in April. 

Too true

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

If the RRFS model run verifies, we riot

Time 2 get nautical 

[Chicago916]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Time 2 get nautical 

Pretty sure there's ice there now since the ice shelf has expanded with the cold. Time 2 get skiing or snowshoeing? Jeb walk on the ice shelf incoming

[cyclone77]

39 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

We've been dry for months on end and have had dry conditions all but one summer in the past 5 with severe drought at times. Not sure why you think it'll be any different in April. 

Everyone knows I'm an eternal optimist. 

[A-L-E-K]

kuchera maps spitting out 50"+ for southern MD with the east coast dog

[RCNYILWX]

Not overly optimistic for a shake up to a pattern more conducive to regional winter storms in this part of the subforum until out towards mid Feb. An improved clipper pattern may eventually evolve as the western ridge axis centers farther west up into AK late in the first week of February and reduces the amplitude of the +PNA.

As of the most recent available ensemble forecast teleconnection indices, signal is there for PNA to trend to at least slightly negative by or after the Superbowl. Since there's been headfakes regarding pairing -PNA with favorable teleconnection indices for cold (-EPO and -AO/-NAO), it's much too far out yet to get too excited.

The good news is that the pattern should remain persistently near to below normal temperature wise, so there should be some opportunities for a few bouts of light to moderate snowfalls (aside from LES potential) until pattern possibly becomes more conducive for a time by mid Feb. Wait and see approach.

Edit: Wanted to incorporate a bit of MJO here, but the CPC page isn't working well today. If anyone has MJO insights, interested in those thoughts as well.

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not overly optimistic for a shake up to a pattern more conducive to regional winter storms in this part of the subforum until out towards mid Feb. An improved clipper pattern may eventually evolve as the western ridge axis centers farther west up into AK late in the first week of February and reduces the amplitude of the +PNA.

As of the most recent available ensemble forecast teleconnection indices, signal is there for PNA to trend to at least slightly negative by or after the Superbowl. Since there's been headfakes regarding pairing -PNA with favorable teleconnection indices for cold (-EPO and -AO/-NAO), it's much too far out yet to get too excited.

The good news is that the pattern should remain persistently near to below normal temperature wise, so there should be some opportunities for a few bouts of light to moderate snowfalls (aside from LES potential) until pattern possibly becomes more conducive for a time by mid Feb. Wait and see approach.

Edit: Wanted to incorporate a bit of MJO here, but the CPC page isn't working well today. If anyone has MJO insights, interested in those thoughts as well.



 

Ive noticed the clipper pattern showing up on LR models.

[ILSNOW]

Chicago NWS on Lake Effect 

There has not been much change in the
recent guidance. High pressure will build across the northern
Plains Thursday night into Friday as an upper level low moves
across the local area Friday into Friday night. This will setup
convergence over Lake Michigan with a band of lake effect snow
developing Thursday night, possibly into northwest IN at first,
then spreading west into far northeast IL Friday morning, then
moving back east into northwest IN Friday evening and then
possibly moving back into northeast IL Saturday morning. While
these overall trends remain on track, the earliest snow would
begin is still 48+ hours away and while lake effect is
challenging, there can be even more uncertainty when its
pointed into northeast IL. While it remains a bit early for
specifics, if a lake effect band does develop, periods of heavy
snow will be possible across far northwest IN and far northeast
IL with several inches of snow possible.

[A-L-E-K]

salvaging what we can from the duster pattern

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not overly optimistic for a shake up to a pattern more conducive to regional winter storms in this part of the subforum until out towards mid Feb. An improved clipper pattern may eventually evolve as the western ridge axis centers farther west up into AK late in the first week of February and reduces the amplitude of the +PNA.

As of the most recent available ensemble forecast teleconnection indices, signal is there for PNA to trend to at least slightly negative by or after the Superbowl. Since there's been headfakes regarding pairing -PNA with favorable teleconnection indices for cold (-EPO and -AO/-NAO), it's much too far out yet to get too excited.

The good news is that the pattern should remain persistently near to below normal temperature wise, so there should be some opportunities for a few bouts of light to moderate snowfalls (aside from LES potential) until pattern possibly becomes more conducive for a time by mid Feb. Wait and see approach.

Edit: Wanted to incorporate a bit of MJO here, but the CPC page isn't working well today. If anyone has MJO insights, interested in those thoughts as well.



 

A sudden switch to Pacific flood pattern would put most of this sub on suicide watch.