mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 1 minute ago, Ji said: Who is Bamwx. Is he legit? Private forecast company out of the Midwest. Indiana I believe. Yes, legit. They were spot on last year with their calls of cold despite models when they were trying to break down the cold. But past performance is.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 February is the snowiest month in DC on average is it not? It’s not even January what is this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 34 minutes ago, konksw said: February is the snowiest month in DC on average is it not? It’s not even January what is this lol A lot of our stinkers in recent years have been Februaries that are no shows. 2017, 2020, and 2023 had multiple 70 degree days and in the latter example an 80+ day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 5 hours ago, bncho said: EPS trend for 12/29 @ 12z. Look at that trend towards colder weather. And some are already cancelling winter. May be the beginning of models moving toward analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Well we’ve had cold shots in crap patterns that are followed by much above average temps 5 days later.That’s not just a cold shot though. That’s a 500mb map with a clear trend toward a stronger, more west based ridge (+PNA) and a trough forming in the east. Block is establishing etc. That being said… still very far out so it’ll change 50x. Grain of salt yada yada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 0z Euro and GFS are advertising some ZR for our northern crew on 12/26-27. It has ticked south a lot over the last 24 hours... maybe they can tick again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Would've loved to see more of the 0z Euro... but it almost alludes to what BAM said regarding the big storm for the first week of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 3 hours ago, bncho said: 0z Euro and GFS are advertising some ZR for our northern crew on 12/26-27. It has ticked south a lot over the last 24 hours... maybe they can tick again? That system is getting pushed south over the last couple of runs. I have some weenie hope the push south continues. If central and southern VA can get 5-10" in early/mid December, no reason we don't have a shot at that system getting far enough south to much of this forum for snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 That system is getting pushed south over the last couple of runs. I have some weenie hope the push south continues. If central and southern VA can get 5-10" in early/mid December, no reason we don't have a shot at that system getting far enough south to much of this forum for snow.Woah gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 So it went from 68 degrees to 32 and winter storm for Boxing Day in 24 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Foot for Mitch and 2 inches of sleet for dc area lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Woah gfs. Seasonal trends baby! Of course, that means ultimately we get nothing and Chill gets a foot+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Seasonal trends baby! Of course, that means ultimately we get nothing and Chill gets a foot+. That’s probably the most insane Change I’ve ever seen in modeling over 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 2 minutes ago, Ji said: That’s probably the most insane Change I’ve ever seen in modeling over 24 hours The block is legit, but you and I have been screwed so many times over the years with 150hr+ storms and blizzards to not be surprised. It's just different IF this time it works in our favor. But, it is the Gfs, so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 So 60s and sunscreen or cold and a mixed bag for the end of the week?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 The block is legit, but you and I have been screwed so many times over the years with 150hr+ storms and blizzards to not be surprised. It's just different IF this time it works in our favor. But, it is the Gfs, so...Euro had it too to a degree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro had it too to a degree It did and consistent with the Euro's tendency for slow run-to-run changes. So I can see we'll all be running to the bathroom to check our phones at Christmas gatherings. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It did and consistent with the Euro's tendency for slow run-to-run changes. So I can see we'll all be running to the bathroom to check our phones at Christmas gatherings. Lol If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas I am the one encouraging it. Meanwhile, the guests would be wondering why I keep sending him with half full bags of trash to the garage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Where is the torchmas? WB 6Z GFS... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Where is the torchmas? WB 6Z GFS Man...looks like i bought myself 2' of sleet for my new house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas Meh...my wife with has a long list of things of things to be pissed off about with me if this doesn't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 I think it is going to be a wild ride this winter....it may not work out but it will be fun to find out! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 25 minutes ago, kristia said: I am the one encouraging it. Meanwhile, the guests would be wondering why I keep sending him with half full bags of trash to the garage He is lucky to have you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: He is lucky to have you! At least someone gets to get away. Social gatherings are exhausting. I host Christmas so I get the home team advantage. Thankfully, we have very few friends and they rarely have parties 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 So no way right? This would be a time I would be thankful for the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Nevermind CWG just posted warming trend through the weekend...the geese and Webb were right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 57 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas What happens when you’re the wife running off to check the models?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 What happens when you’re the wife running off to check the models?? You become closer to your weenie friends than your own spouse during winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Nevermind CWG just posted warming trend through the weekend...the geese and Webb were rightI think half of CWG posts are written 12 hours out and then get scheduled to post during certain high fb traffic times 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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