December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Who is Bamwx. Is he legit?

Private forecast company out of the Midwest. Indiana I believe. Yes, legit. They were spot on last year with their calls of cold despite models when they were trying to break down the cold.  But past performance is....

[konksw]

February is the snowiest month in DC on average is it not? It’s not even January what is this lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

34 minutes ago, konksw said:

February is the snowiest month in DC on average is it not? It’s not even January what is this lol

A lot of our stinkers in recent years have been Februaries that are no shows. 2017, 2020, and 2023 had multiple 70 degree days and in the latter example an 80+ day.

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, bncho said:

EPS trend for 12/29 @ 12z. Look at that trend towards colder weather. And some are already cancelling winter.

May be the beginning of models moving toward analogs 

[jayyy]

Well we’ve had cold shots in crap patterns that are followed by much above average temps 5 days later.

That’s not just a cold shot though. That’s a 500mb map with a clear trend toward a stronger, more west based ridge (+PNA) and a trough forming in the east. Block is establishing etc.

That being said… still very far out so it’ll change 50x. Grain of salt yada yada

[bncho]

0z Euro and GFS are advertising some ZR for our northern crew on 12/26-27. It has ticked south a lot over the last 24 hours... maybe they can tick again?

[bncho]

Would've loved to see more of the 0z Euro... but it almost alludes to what BAM said regarding the big storm for the first week of January.