December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know the mood is in the gutter and the pattern is literally shit with little or no signs of recovering, but weak nina winters tend to be very volatile and I would not at all be surprised to see the cold east making a big comeback mid Jan through early Feb. 

So its officially this season now?

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know the mood is in the gutter and the pattern is literally shit with little or no signs of recovering, but weak nina winters tend to be very volatile and I would not at all be surprised to see the cold east making a big comeback mid Jan through early Feb. 

I hope so...to get to the more optimistic totals we're gonna have to jam in some events over those 3 weeks, and hope to get a little something in March.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro weeklies had blue from Like Jan 8 to the rest of the month

They correctly picked up hints of a colder pattern before the real cold came first half of Dec. Same thing happened last Jan. While I take weeklies with a grain (heap) of salt, they may be onto something here. An extreme -PNA doesn’t usually last, it’ll revert to at least neutral if not positive. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hope so...to get to the more optimistic totals we're gonna have to jam in some events over those 3 weeks, and hope to get a little something in March.

I think the totals submitted in the contest thread are mostly too optimistic. I stayed below climo, but to even hit my own predictions we need a couple of hits in Jan or Feb. 

[bncho]

Went from the highest of highs two days ago to the lowest of lows today. Welcome to AmericanWX!

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

and hope to get a little something in March.

Last time DCA got more than an inch in December the following March had measurable snow.

[Benjamn3]

Man, the emotional roller coaster. Some things never change, from the eastern/AccuWeather days to now. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Went from the highest of highs two days ago to the lowest of lows today. Welcome to AmericanWX!

That’s how we roll! 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Man, the emotional roller coaster. Some things never change, from the eastern/AccuWeather days to now. 

Things tend to be like that when everyone here loves winter and the models are basically saying "welcome to spring 2026. Hopefully you enjoyed your three day winter this season."

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 hrs ago we un-punted late Dec thru mid Jan. Now we re-punted and are shitting the blinds? Cool, normal mid Dec stuff around here  

[baltosquid]

GOOFUS may be flirting with an entry for the digital snow thread for new year’s lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

ENSO thread has effectively cancelled the cold shots for the last few days of the month and are advertising January to play out like it did in 2020 and 2023.

[baltosquid]

I didn’t know the ENSO thread had weather influencing capabilities

[RIC_WX]

The 2005/6 analog continues to look favorable to how this season is unfolding.  If this continues...

-Feb will not be a wall to wall torch

-We will achieve near climo snowfall

-We are likely out of business through at least mid January

-The coldest anamolies from normal are firmly behind us for the remainder of the entire season

I don't know if you draw positive or negative conclusions from this, its something for everyone.  The models will continue to be volatile day to day.  If anything, to my very untrained eye the pattern progression is moving pretty fast this year and perhaps suggests we wont be out of the game for weeks at a time.  

I sure do wish we could have timed a better pattern for the holidays.  Early December cold is mostly wasted for us.

[bncho]

11 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

There's a digital snow thread.

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

ENSO thread has effectively cancelled the cold shots for the last few days of the month and are advertising January to play out like it did in 2020 and 2023.

There's a panic room thread too! 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

They correctly picked up hints of a colder pattern before the real cold came first half of Dec. Same thing happened last Jan. While I take weeklies with a grain (heap) of salt, they may be onto something here. An extreme -PNA doesn’t usually last, it’ll revert to at least neutral if not positive. 

Analogs have been pretty consistent showing periods leading to cold and/or stormy stretches. Jan 2022, 2009, 2000, 2011 etc. Right now boxing day is showing up lol but I'm pretty sure that's only because of the NAO and not a legit storm threat inside of 2 weeks.

I agree about the dagger -pna. The persistence and duration is frustrating but it's not unusual/uncommon and it's also not a sign of extended disaster. The winter see saw in that region happens more often than not and when it flips it can be abrupt. Not the same thing as a zonal pac jet destroying hopes and dreams for months. 

I was never bullish on snowfall this winter but I continue to expect enough action to keep this winter out of the turd category. A single lucky storm can tip those scales as well. Can't rule that out for a couple months.

[LP08]

Next few weeks really come down to the -NAO with the Pacific the way it is.  You can toggle runs from days ago today and see how extreme the solutions can differ.  Look at 12z post 240.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

There's a panic room thread too!

Which in spite of everything nobody is using...

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not the same thing as a zonal pac jet destroying hopes and dreams for months. 

I'm guessing that's the reason the cold is still in Canada and not Mongolia?

[bncho]

12z GFS is a valiant attempt but it's too warm

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

12z GFS is a valiant attempt but it's too warm

Too warm as in marginally or too warm as in "the only 20s on the map are the amount of degrees above normal it is"?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Too warm as in marginally or too warm as in "the only 20s on the map are the amount of degrees above normal it is"?

shortwave was in a decent spot but there's this weird blue blob under the NAO which kinda screws up things

[baltosquid]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GFS is a valiant attempt but it's too warm

Yeah strikingly similar to yesterday’s 06z but we just don’t have the Atlantic side of things as buttoned up as we did on that run. High was 10-15 hPa weaker. Need to get a good traffic jam going, and then the general shortwave progression (strong sw, perhaps big cutoff rolling through the southwest and central US) would have ended much better this time.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GFS is a valiant attempt but it's too warm

 

 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

 

I'm guessing that's the reason the cold is still in Canada and not Mongolia?

The mechanism to build continental cold is alive and well. We don't need cross polar flow or arctic express stuff for snowfall. All we need is Canada to produce high pressure in the lee of the rockies. Where we get into serious trouble is when the trop PV is pushed over on the other side of the pole and Canada is flooded with Pac maritime air. Which has happened multiple times in the last handful of years.

Right now the only serious problem is a persistent trough in the PacNW pumping up heights/ridging downstream in the conus. This bottles up cold high pressure to the north and storm track well to our NW. It's a crap pattern for snowfall here but it's also only one roll forward or retro move away from things being conducive for cold and/or snow possibilities becoming less hostile. For the time being it's a sit on your hands period and wait and see. It's not a multi step process to be back in the game. It's really just one step.

[baltosquid]

Also the AIGFS had a similar solution. It actually kept the storm under us and there’s a nice coastal but base state is still too warm, probably would be a mixy messy thing.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I’m not sure why LWX added a 40% chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday in my forecast today? Is any model even showing snow in this time frame?

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m not sure why LWX added a 40% chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday in my forecast today? Is any model even showing snow in this time frame?

Some light front end stuff has been shown for the storm that’ll roll through then. Accumulations doubtful.

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's really just one step.

As in one strong cutter dumping cold air behind it towards us and suddenly we’re tracking a follow up wave. Could really happen anytime, but I have that pegged in week 2/3 in Jan. Could be sooner. 

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Analogs have been pretty consistent showing periods leading to cold and/or stormy stretches. Jan 2022, 2009, 2000, 2011 etc. Right now boxing day is showing up lol but I'm pretty sure that's only because of the NAO and not a legit storm threat inside of 2 weeks.

I agree about the dagger -pna. The persistence and duration is frustrating but it's not unusual/uncommon and it's also not a sign of extended disaster. The winter see saw in that region happens more often than not and when it flips it can be abrupt. Not the same thing as a zonal pac jet destroying hopes and dreams for months. 

I was never bullish on snowfall this winter but I continue to expect enough action to keep this winter out of the turd category. A single lucky storm can tip those scales as well. Can't rule that out for a couple months.

Maybe I've asked this before...but given this I'm even more surprised surprised at your call for 18" in the contest thread. I mean my layman eyes saw that as a bit bullish for a nina, but what do I know? Lol

[Ji]

Euro had a pretty severe west based -NAO but not getting much help elsewhere to make it really work. This looks like a wonky look anyway