December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

Ya… ya know, typical for Nina? FFS…

Clippers can happen in any ENSO state, I believe. It has just been over a decade since the last one hence my sarcastic "A CLIPPER?" If you look at it again, my statement was not about those but about the kind of outcome that happens with bigger storms in ninas with the NS and SS phasing too late and creating the kind of precip distribution that particular model run showed

...I was not referring to clippers when I said that.

[Wxdavis5784]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Clippers can happen in any ENSO state, I believe. It has just been over a decade since the last one hence my sarcastic "A CLIPPER?" If you look at it again, my statement was not about those but about the kind of outcome that happens with bigger storms in ninas with the NS and SS phasing too late and creating the kind of precip distribution that particular model run showed

...I was not referring to clippers when I said that.

I know what you meant. We all read your insufferable banter daily... 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The Dolphin Storm. Or maybe Platypus.

Dolphin is catchier...but it does kinda look like it's about to lay an egg out west (if we're talking about the duck-billed one, that is )

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just one run of course, but 6z gefs never gets the ridge to roll over all the way to the east coast. And now has another well defined trough swing through around the 18-19th. EPS has that trough around the 18th also, but not as deep and focused a little to our west. If the WPO ridge shifts west and weakens, I would make sense for us to go more zonal, but that can keeps getting kicked.

Interesting look on Cfs2 lately for January and February. 

500mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Precip

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

P.s. March may be acceptable too.

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

I know what you meant. We all read your insufferable banter daily... 

Yeah I kinda figured you knew and you were complaning about me in general. Why don't you just use the ignore feature? Very easy. I have behaved myself better than I used to but yeah last week I fell off the wagon...so what? But again, you can hit ignore. Why you and others don't I have no idea.

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Interesting look on Cfs2 lately for January and February. 

500mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Precip

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

P.s. March may be acceptable too.

+TNH. It wouldn’t surprise me. 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

+TNH. It wouldn’t surprise me. 

Fantasy 6z gfs fired the first warning shot..... Return of the -NAO as well... lol

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker.

Still a good track. Solid 1-3/ 2-4.

I sign up for that

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Still a good track. Solid 1-3/ 2-4.

I sign up for that

Hope the gfs jumps on board at 12z. I’d take a little 2-4” storm in a heart beat. 

[TSSN+]

Idk what this was going to result in but, 6z euro also had some thing moving towards us at the end of the run.

 

 

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hope the gfs jumps on board at 12z. I’d take a little 2-4” storm in a heart beat. 

If it quiets @Maestrobjwa down i would take an inch. 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO for late week

The 13th is Wreaths Across America. Would love this.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Idk what this was going to result in but, 6z euro also had some thing moving towards us at the end of the run.

 

 

It'll change at 12z, but putting the 5H anomalies in motion, the ridge to our east was building, so I would wag it comes through too warm.

[mitchnick]

6z Euro AI had the Sunday system that looks more like a colder version of last Tuesday, but a slightly different evolution. AI changes a lot, so we'll see what happens at 12z. Probably a SC/NC bullseye as it corrects to the seasonal trends. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Alright lets clear the air of this thread with an actual meteorological post! Looking forward to next Friday and our first potential northern crew non-skunk storm. As we know the NS is an absolute hot mess this week with vorticity flying around everywhere so the forecast is nowhere near set in stone. However, we can still try to pick out what to watch for! So lets start off with what goes right on the Euro which manages to snow over some of us. 

We can see our embedded vorticity max diving south over the central plains. The first thing that would help us out is a more pumped PNA ridge in order to have it become more amplified and further south (this is more important for me than most posters). However, we can also see that amplifying our vorticity in any way will help out! Compare this to the GFS

Our shortwave never had a real chance. Look at that line of vorticity over NoVa and the bigger lobe above our shortwave acting as a squashing force due to its W-E orientation vs the Euros N-S. So, we should look for that line of vorticity to appear like the Euro as weaker and more out of the way. Additionally, we should look for a stronger shortwave with the lobe above it interacting positively via a N-S orientation.

TDLR: We need less confluence ahead of the wave and good orientation of the lobe above the wave. Though, considering the amount of interactions no idea what will actually happen!

[mitchnick]

Icon hoped on board with Friday/Saturday 

[clskinsfan]

12Z Icon has the Fri/Sat thing. Looks good for NOVA and north. 

Ninja'd

[Benjamn3]

NWS Blacksburg, VA

 

 

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon hoped on board with Friday/Saturday 

Come to papa. Gfs get on board please. 
 

 

[Benjamn3]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Come to papa. Gfs get on board please. 
 

 

Let’s bring it south 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said:

Let’s bring it south 

There wasn’t anything on gfs so it just needs to exsist this run would be a good start. 

[Benjamn3]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

There wasn’t anything on gfs so it just needs to exsist this run would be a good start. 

I agree, just making a joke. Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

GFS looks tried to have it but still shredded it...Closer look than last time though

[TSSN+]

Gfs is a fart in the wind. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

GFS looks like it's gonna have it.

Not even close 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is a fart in the wind. 

Baby step toward euro. Sharper vort and less confluence. Has some light precip west of the mountains.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Not even close 

Edited to say it looked closer to having it this time...confluence appeared to be weaker. If that trend continues at Happy Hour it may have it?

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Baby step toward euro. Sharper vort and less confluence. Has some light precip west of the mountains.

Hope it keeps stepping 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hope it keeps stepping 

We got some time unlike whatever small north trend happened on today’s VA storm 

[T. August]

Honestly feels good to have the icon show it - it seems like it’s always the first model of the cycle to show a whiff/be bone dry.