Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Ya… ya know, typical for Nina? FFS… Clippers can happen in any ENSO state, I believe. It has just been over a decade since the last one hence my sarcastic "A CLIPPER?" If you look at it again, my statement was not about those but about the kind of outcome that happens with bigger storms in ninas with the NS and SS phasing too late and creating the kind of precip distribution that particular model run showed ...I was not referring to clippers when I said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Clippers can happen in any ENSO state, I believe. It has just been over a decade since the last one hence my sarcastic "A CLIPPER?" If you look at it again, my statement was not about those but about the kind of outcome that happens with bigger storms in ninas with the NS and SS phasing too late and creating the kind of precip distribution that particular model run showed ...I was not referring to clippers when I said that. I know what you meant. We all read your insufferable banter daily... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: The Dolphin Storm. Or maybe Platypus. Dolphin is catchier...but it does kinda look like it's about to lay an egg out west (if we're talking about the duck-billed one, that is ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just one run of course, but 6z gefs never gets the ridge to roll over all the way to the east coast. And now has another well defined trough swing through around the 18-19th. EPS has that trough around the 18th also, but not as deep and focused a little to our west. If the WPO ridge shifts west and weakens, I would make sense for us to go more zonal, but that can keeps getting kicked. Interesting look on Cfs2 lately for January and February. 500mb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 Temps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 Precip https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 P.s. March may be acceptable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 26 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: I know what you meant. We all read your insufferable banter daily... Yeah I kinda figured you knew and you were complaning about me in general. Why don't you just use the ignore feature? Very easy. I have behaved myself better than I used to but yeah last week I fell off the wagon...so what? But again, you can hit ignore. Why you and others don't I have no idea. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Interesting look on Cfs2 lately for January and February. 500mb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 Temps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 Precip https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 P.s. March may be acceptable too. +TNH. It wouldn’t surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: +TNH. It wouldn’t surprise me. Fantasy 6z gfs fired the first warning shot..... Return of the -NAO as well... lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: 6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker. Still a good track. Solid 1-3/ 2-4. I sign up for that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Still a good track. Solid 1-3/ 2-4. I sign up for that Hope the gfs jumps on board at 12z. I’d take a little 2-4” storm in a heart beat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago Idk what this was going to result in but, 6z euro also had some thing moving towards us at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Hope the gfs jumps on board at 12z. I’d take a little 2-4” storm in a heart beat. If it quiets @Maestrobjwa down i would take an inch. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago 7 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO for late week The 13th is Wreaths Across America. Would love this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Idk what this was going to result in but, 6z euro also had some thing moving towards us at the end of the run. It'll change at 12z, but putting the 5H anomalies in motion, the ridge to our east was building, so I would wag it comes through too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 44 minutes ago Share Posted 44 minutes ago 6z Euro AI had the Sunday system that looks more like a colder version of last Tuesday, but a slightly different evolution. AI changes a lot, so we'll see what happens at 12z. Probably a SC/NC bullseye as it corrects to the seasonal trends. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago Alright lets clear the air of this thread with an actual meteorological post! Looking forward to next Friday and our first potential northern crew non-skunk storm. As we know the NS is an absolute hot mess this week with vorticity flying around everywhere so the forecast is nowhere near set in stone. However, we can still try to pick out what to watch for! So lets start off with what goes right on the Euro which manages to snow over some of us. We can see our embedded vorticity max diving south over the central plains. The first thing that would help us out is a more pumped PNA ridge in order to have it become more amplified and further south (this is more important for me than most posters). However, we can also see that amplifying our vorticity in any way will help out! Compare this to the GFS Our shortwave never had a real chance. Look at that line of vorticity over NoVa and the bigger lobe above our shortwave acting as a squashing force due to its W-E orientation vs the Euros N-S. So, we should look for that line of vorticity to appear like the Euro as weaker and more out of the way. Additionally, we should look for a stronger shortwave with the lobe above it interacting positively via a N-S orientation. TDLR: We need less confluence ahead of the wave and good orientation of the lobe above the wave. Though, considering the amount of interactions no idea what will actually happen! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 minute ago Share Posted 1 minute ago Icon hoped on board with Friday/Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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