December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

Ya… ya know, typical for Nina? FFS…

Clippers can happen in any ENSO state, I believe. It has just been over a decade since the last one hence my sarcastic "A CLIPPER?" If you look at it again, my statement was not about those but about the kind of outcome that happens with bigger storms in ninas with the NS and SS phasing too late and creating the kind of precip distribution that particular model run showed

...I was not referring to clippers when I said that.

[Wxdavis5784]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Clippers can happen in any ENSO state, I believe. It has just been over a decade since the last one hence my sarcastic "A CLIPPER?" If you look at it again, my statement was not about those but about the kind of outcome that happens with bigger storms in ninas with the NS and SS phasing too late and creating the kind of precip distribution that particular model run showed

...I was not referring to clippers when I said that.

I know what you meant. We all read your insufferable banter daily... 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The Dolphin Storm. Or maybe Platypus.

Dolphin is catchier...but it does kinda look like it's about to lay an egg out west (if we're talking about the duck-billed one, that is )

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just one run of course, but 6z gefs never gets the ridge to roll over all the way to the east coast. And now has another well defined trough swing through around the 18-19th. EPS has that trough around the 18th also, but not as deep and focused a little to our west. If the WPO ridge shifts west and weakens, I would make sense for us to go more zonal, but that can keeps getting kicked.

Interesting look on Cfs2 lately for January and February. 

500mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Precip

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

P.s. March may be acceptable too.

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

I know what you meant. We all read your insufferable banter daily... 

Yeah I kinda figured you knew and you were complaning about me in general. Why don't you just use the ignore feature? Very easy. I have behaved myself better than I used to but yeah last week I fell off the wagon...so what? But again, you can hit ignore. Why you and others don't I have no idea.

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Interesting look on Cfs2 lately for January and February. 

500mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Precip

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

P.s. March may be acceptable too.

+TNH. It wouldn’t surprise me. 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

+TNH. It wouldn’t surprise me. 

Fantasy 6z gfs fired the first warning shot..... Return of the -NAO as well... lol

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker.

Still a good track. Solid 1-3/ 2-4.

I sign up for that

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Still a good track. Solid 1-3/ 2-4.

I sign up for that

Hope the gfs jumps on board at 12z. I’d take a little 2-4” storm in a heart beat. 

[TSSN+]

Idk what this was going to result in but, 6z euro also had some thing moving towards us at the end of the run.

 

 

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hope the gfs jumps on board at 12z. I’d take a little 2-4” storm in a heart beat. 

If it quiets @Maestrobjwa down i would take an inch. 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO for late week

The 13th is Wreaths Across America. Would love this.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Idk what this was going to result in but, 6z euro also had some thing moving towards us at the end of the run.

 

 

It'll change at 12z, but putting the 5H anomalies in motion, the ridge to our east was building, so I would wag it comes through too warm.

[mitchnick]

6z Euro AI had the Sunday system that looks more like a colder version of last Tuesday, but a slightly different evolution. AI changes a lot, so we'll see what happens at 12z. Probably a SC/NC bullseye as it corrects to the seasonal trends.