December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[soadforecasterx]

Seems like models are leaning towards a type of overrunning event. This might be better than the coastal comming up the coast.

[TSSN+]

Icon way back north so I’m sure gfs will go south now lol 

[jayyy]

Nam and rgem come in colder at 00z

Well out of both of their ranges though. Grain of salt

[bncho]

we should probably create a storm thread tomorrow, at least for the NW folks

[NorthArlington101]

GFS looks south 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS looks south 

It is but I forgot how north the GFS was at 18z. More mix this run at least. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It is but I forgot how north the GFS was at 18z. More mix this run at least. 

It’s so warm compared to euro/cmc ukemt lol. Takes the 32 line up almost to New York/PA line 

[bncho]

CMC with it's usual ice storm, Euro with it's C-2" before rain and then maybe some back end snow, that's probably what will happen, you don't need to stay up, go to sleep now 

[TSSN+]

Difference in gfs and cmc at h5 by hr 72 is laughable 

 

[bncho]

it's another ice storm (to rain) from the cmc. same output for the last 4 model runs of that. Euro likely to do the exact same thing it did at 18z as well

[TSSN+]

Euroish 

[stormtracker]

It’s kinda clear that this is a N and W thing at this point. Oh well, not too sad. We were playing with house money anyway. 

[bncho]

GFS has the December 6-7 event.

[bncho]

Euro is approximately the same as 18z, maybe a little more precip and a little more north. But it also asks the lowlands to wait kindly for their turn.

[winter_warlock]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro is approximately the same as 18z, maybe a little more precip and a little more north. But it also asks the lowlands to wait kindly for their turn.

 I'd be flipping estatic if it wasn't 282 hours away lol but at least it's another one to track. And this one seem colder 

[mitchnick]

6z Euro and Eps

[WxUSAF]

Someone start a thread!

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Someone start a thread!

I nominate you good sir!

[frd]

I like this slow movement. 

 

 

[frd]

 

Paul Roundy  @PaulRoundy1

The west Pacific warm pool is changing shape.

 

Eventually it will allow for more convection near the Dateline, which can favor western N. America ridges.

Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1  38m

If the western ridge is far enough west, it can favor a central N. American trough and eastern ridge. 1997 Feb-Mar had eastern US ridging in spite of central Pacific convection.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

 I'd be flipping estatic if it wasn't 282 hours away lol but at least it's another one to track. And this one seem colder 

Don't stare at it too long, lol

[Heisy]

Here is today’s 12z gfs from 45 and 102 hours. Looks very similar, pattern repeating itself. It is decent just gotta take advantage of one of these waves. Cold source nearby.



Also, this might produce…




.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I think 12/10 is the one to watch.

[bncho]

Canadian/GEM also has the Dec 6 storm, then vodka cold afterwards

[mitchnick]

I knew I had seen the surface maps showing surface Highs moving off the coast to our east and NE. I found it. Looks like we may hve to get used to it for the winter if the Euro seasonal is correct. The link below is for the period of Dec-Feb. If you scroll forward to J-M, it's even stronger. As long as we get better cold into the area, we should still have our shots at snow. Next week's problem is only being 3-4 degrees too warm, which is more a function of the early season.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=NAME&base_time=202511010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202512020000

 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It did not lol 

Had a tease for the 6th. Does seem like that the 6th is another “real” window at least. All I can ask for at the start of the season is a few chances to keep me busy.