December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Honestly that's pretty impressive. If that mean output would be anywhere close to verifying then many of us would have exceeded monthly snowfall climo by mid month. Yes please! I would be very, very happy to eat crow and see snow falling.

Forecast accuracy beyond D10 is generally 50%, or the flip of a coin esp. on details like precip amounts. Likely worse for snow. Don't get too excited based on any sensible outcome it depicts outside of a week would be my advice. Personally I only use it at long leads for general longwave pattern looks, over at least a few runs.

[simbasad2]

47 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

We will find out how good the AI EPS is with winter storms in the next couple of weeks.  Lot of big hits especially NW the next 15 days.

This feels suspiciously too high. It's worth mentioning I've noticed the AIFS-ENS has a tendency to show snowfall in areas that are just really heavy rain no matter the temp. For instance, I remember Jamaica had a 1-2" snowfall mean right before Hurricane Melissa made landfall. I'd personally stick to the traditional ensembles until they can fix whatever this issue is

[Eskimo Joe]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Forecast accuracy beyond D10 is generally 50%, or the flip of a coin esp. on details like precip amounts. Likely worse for snow. Don't get too excited based on any sensible outcome it depicts outside of a week would be my advice. Personally I only use it at long leads for general longwave pattern looks, over at least a few runs.

100% agreed. I do not get excited for acute threats until we're inside D3 anymore.

[JenkinsJinkies]

57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

100% agreed. I do not get excited for acute threats until we're inside D3 anymore.

I’ve seen rug pulls happen even closer to the event than 3 days before.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

100% agreed. I do not get excited for acute threats until we're inside D3 anymore.

Same should be said about doom and gloom posts about D15-30 patterns. 

[IronTy]

5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think you are gonna find out colleges don’t cancel easy - UVA had just a half day off during finals after Dec. 2018!

When I was a sophomore (2000 I think) at college in Flint,MI the night before my Digitals 2 and Calculus 4 final exams we got 16" of snow.  Whole college shut down and all the finals were canceled!  I can't remember how they ultimately calculated our grades but we were all pretty stoked about it.  

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think you are gonna find out colleges don’t cancel easy - UVA had just a half day off during finals after Dec. 2018!

when we closed for Hurricane Isabel back in 2003, the joke was UVA didn't even close for the Civil War etc.  They've gone soft!!

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is gonna scrape us with the storm on the 30th. Can’t see totals yet but some wintry precipitation in the area. 
 

T-1” if you are lucky

[NorthArlington101]

GFS at 141 is cooking something interesting up… I’m not daring enough to say the result 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS at 141 is cooking something interesting up… I’m not daring enough to say the result 

gonna be really close but very trackable regardless 

[Solution Man]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

gonna be really close but very trackable regardless 

Yeah it’s gonna be pretty good, but we’ve been burnt

[NorthArlington101]

Flipping hard from rain to snow at 159

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

gonna be really close but very trackable regardless 

Looks classic for some

[NorthArlington101]

Pounding at 162

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Pounding at 162

Time to get the gang back?

6”+ for many

[bncho]

@stormtrackerpbp time baby

[Solution Man]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Time to get the gang back?

Gonna start drafting up some paperwork Friday if this holds. Where’s Randy, please report by Friday 

[Ji]

Crazy run lol

[bncho]

@NorthArlington101 gets the honors for the snow maps

[mitchnick]

Gfs has been hitting hard on this 12/3 threat for days. That's often the sign of legit threats.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

@NorthArlington101 gets the honors for the snow maps

This should be about it 

 

10:1 for the truthers 

[mitchnick]

Trailing upper level low is the signature of a great storm too.

[pazzo83]

we're bringing back the early Dec snowstorm baby!!!

[bncho]

 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This should be about it 

NW folks get a nice storm. idc if i'm missing out on a foot, i'm taking 7 inches in early december ANY DAY 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This should be about it 

 

10:1 for the truthers 

Pivotal is very close to those maps too.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

 

NW folks get a nice storm. idc if i'm missing out on a foot, i'm taking 7 inches in early december ANY DAY 

[bncho]

everything to love about that run. great appetizer on the 30th, and then dec 2-3 snowfest. it obviously doesn't mean much, but the big takeaway is that the GFS has been showing this time and time again, so there's definitely a signal.

[Ji]

Pivotal is very close to those maps too.

Give us that and call it a winter

[NorthArlington101]

CMC is a gentle step in the right direction. Not sure I’ve got EURO energy tonight but we’ll see. 

[jayyy]

Sweet run for sure. Only 8 days to go… doubt much changes between now and then (KIDDING)

Nice to see a trackable threat show up early. GFS has been latched onto this general window for a few days now. Let’s keep our expectations in check this far out.