December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a bunch of melts over an op run lol. Everyone was feeling great like 3 hours ago until the gfs came out 

Anything post-Xmas needs to be taken a massive grain of salt right now around this part of the country. The only certainty is the middle of the country will blowtorch. 

[CoastalWx]

Teetering in Tolland 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anything post-Xmas needs to be taken a massive grain of salt right now around this part of the country. The only certainty is the middle of the country will blowtorch. 

You should see the melts in a text group with 3 well known Mets.after they saw the gfs.  I had to talk sense into them . Imagine that 

[CoastalWx]

Someone is nervously melting 

[Damage In Tolland]

You sure were. You’re welcome 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is still pretty nice for 12/23. Would be awesome to get that to trend a smidge further south to juice it up a little more. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is still pretty nice for 12/23. Would be awesome to get that to trend a smidge further south to juice it up a little more. 

Yeah agree. Luckily it’s cold to start out, but shift that south a bit.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is still pretty nice for 12/23. Would be awesome to get that to trend a smidge further south to juice it up a little more. 

Yeah I liked that signal a few days ago and I think we’re in good shape right now. We definitely need to bring that home. A few inches would put us closer to Dec climo with uncertainty about the post Christmas possibilities. 

[8611Blizz]

[weathafella]

Also, some of the torchy guidance has a Canadian high in a nice position.  The warmth seems at least partially suspect.  We’ll see.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

Also, some of the torchy guidance has a Canadian high in a nice position.  The warmth seems at least partially suspect.  We’ll see.

Been TTTE. They keep screaming wearing boxers outside on Boxing Day 

[weatherwiz]

Who the heck knows what to expect after Christmas. The signals are all over the place, especially with the structure and orientation of the pattern which will play a critical roll. If I had to be nervous about something post Christmas it would be shortwave moving into the West getting obliterated as they move across the Inter-mountain West...but there is really no sense of worrying about this nor any point to feeling confident or not confident. 

[CoastalWx]

Mild Christmas Day on euro. Just like the ones we used to know.

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mild Christmas Day on euro. Just like the ones we used to know.

 

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hopefully we’re locking into that 23rd period. Would be a nice festive snow for many. Solid chill locks in for the Christmas period immediately after.

[CT Rain]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You should see the melts in a text group with 3 well known Mets.after they saw the gfs.  I had to talk sense into them . Imagine that 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mild Christmas Day on euro. Just like the ones we used to know.

Yeah, everyone’s 1.5” from the clipper will be long gone 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mild Christmas Day on euro. Just like the ones we used to know.

Forever and always Looking to stoke the fire.
 

Good thing it’s 7 days out, and it’s the Op. 

[weatherwiz]

I still think there is room for something bigger in the 28th-31st time frame, but perhaps not in the classic sense of what you would want the pattern to look like. I think its been mentioned several times, but we easily could see something along the lines of a late bloomer. But what happens during this period will be a big influence on how we evolve moving through the start of January. If the blocking develops as advertised (I think this is what would help with bigger storm potential in the time frame mentioned) but this probably leads to an increased risk that we do undergo a period of above average warmth early in January as the southern ridging connects with the block. If the blocking doesn't materialize then maybe we just remain more zonal and probably more towards the cooler side of average but not particularly active. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, everyone’s 1.5” from the clipper will be long gone 

We knew you’d be in as soon as you saw a negative comment…as regular as clockwork. Nowhere to be found when the talk was about tuesdays potential..but right there when Scott stokes the fire. 

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Actually you will learn your memories keep you alive.

[CoastalWx]

One little change here or there is like a 30F difference for us lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

All this crying will be a memory by New Year's 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

One little change here or there is like a 30F difference for us lol. 

Yup..it’s very close. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup..it’s very close. 

Not sure what got into the 12z guidance, but vomit worthy today. Hope that changes. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure what got into the 12z guidance, but vomit worthy today. Hope that changes. 

Same shit last week…12z sucks, 6z good.  Laughable. 

[8611Blizz]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually you will learn your memories keep you alive.

As a caregiver for a dementia patient  believe me i know memories are the first to be distorted or altered.  

The point is whenever I see people discussing '96 or '15 I don't even  have to look at the models to know that things probably aren't going well in terms of snow.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure what got into the 12z guidance, but vomit worthy today. Hope that changes. 

Still amazing how modeling keeps us 4 to 5 degrees BN with above normal heights in the extended.  Strong signal for volatility. Peeps living and dying each op run are going to go crazy with a pattern like this. Oscillation city 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Still amazing how modeling keeps us 4 to 5 degrees BN with above normal heights in the extended.  Strong signal for volatility. Peeps living and dying each op run are going to go crazy with a pattern like this. Oscillation city 

Part of me is wondering if there is some scaling back in that regard due to climo. I agree that we certainly may end up below average as a whole, but unless we get some persistent HP to our north...we are going to be caked into a southwesterly surface flow. But the boundary is going to be very close by. It really can go either way 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

As a caregiver for a dementia patient  believe me i know memories are the first to be distorted or altered.  

The point is whenever I see people discussing '96 or '15 I don't even  have to look at the models to know that things probably aren't going well in terms of snow.

I teach acquired brain injury clients on regaining basic life skills so we are cut from the same cloth. Nah we always have the memories thrown in conversation usually waiting for the next model run. Thank you for what you do both my parents died with dementia.  Toughest times of my life. At any rate modeling isn't terrible at all smoothed out. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Still amazing how modeling keeps us 4 to 5 degrees BN with above normal heights in the extended.  Strong signal for volatility. Peeps living and dying each op run are going to go crazy with a pattern like this. Oscillation city 

Those runs were fairly mild though. I’m going to pretend 12z didn’t happen. It’s definitely volatile.