December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[moneypitmike]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's also into the holiday break period now, too....so folks may not be up at 6am.

And the Patriots last night.

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Scooter McGavin?

That’s pretty much it.  Hopefully the kid could talk him down. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a circle that had a major melt this morning . And I mean major 

I refused to even look at the texts…didn’t want to be influenced by the insanity…just came in here to see what went on overnight, and was pleased with the info. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree.. only a special storm for me will keep me up for euro 

well also the Euro of now ain't the Euro of old.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

well also the Euro of now ain't the Euro of old.

It is earlier now, so staying up for it as less of a challenge.

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he’s been on tilt…we’ll get him back if he can muster a decent event this week whether it’s Tuesday or Friday. 
 

As for the lack of posts on Friday mentioned by others…it’s kind of hard to speak intelligently on that threat since it’s been moving hundreds of miles within a couple cycles. It would be nice to see some stabilization on guidance. 

wouldn't be a shock if that got all of New England.

[brooklynwx99]

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Still great to see this upcoming period continuing to hold potential. The late weekend period has my eye

this is absolutely pitiful lmao next week could end up legit if that block keeps uptrending

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is absolutely pitiful lmao next week could end up legit if that block keeps uptrending

that final depiction looks perfect right now. great ridge position.  50-50 low not suppressive. southern stream off pacific?  great amplitude.  very good trouch position to go negative near us?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is absolutely pitiful lmao next week could end up legit if that block keeps uptrending

The trends have certainly been noteworthy, you've done a damn good job and highlighting these trends (and not just with this period) over the past few weeks. It's been great to see some trends moving in our favor as we get closer to an event versus the other way around, which has plagued us the last several winters. I am very intrigued moving into and through January.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I refused to even look at the texts…didn’t want to be influenced by the insanity…just came in here to see what went on overnight, and was pleased with the info. 

Not that group lol

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The trends have certainly been noteworthy, you've done a damn good job and highlighting these trends (and not just with this period) over the past few weeks. It's been great to see some trends moving in our favor as we get closer to an event versus the other way around, which has plagued us the last several winters. I am very intrigued moving into and through January.

yeah, would be nice to get Friday and then maybe some better potential next week

all I know is that if you get that strong and west based enough, dumb shit will happen. almost always does when you have a block that big. it isn't there yet, as the main vort tracks through the lakes, but it wouldn't take a lot to change that if you weaken that Pacific trough or retro it more

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, would be nice to get Friday and then maybe some better potential next week

all I know is that if you get that strong and west based enough, dumb shit will happen. almost always does when you have a block that big. it isn't there yet, as the main vort tracks through the lakes, but it wouldn't take a lot to change that if you weaken that Pacific trough or retro it more

Those retrograding blocks can really work in our favor and models can struggle with those. That's when you can see one run showing a 980 low tracking north of the Great Lakes and then two runs later is tracking 700 miles south lol. All in all...that trend is not bad looking. I also wonder what role that cutoff southwest of Baja would play...sometimes that can be beneficial to us and sometimes not. But it does seem to be assisting in those higher heights into the PAC NW. Still some room here but its encouraging to see at this stage

[40/70 Benchmark]

I certainly didn't expect big blocking late December...welcome deviation if that comes to fruition.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I certainly didn't expect big blocking late December...welcomed deviation if that comes to fruition.

Without it we’d be in shorts for weeks 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Without it we’d be in shorts for weeks 

I don't think so....not with the PV on our side of the hemisphere. We would get some warm days, but there would always be cold spells in the wake of storms. Would probably suck for snow, though.

[HoarfrostHubb]

MBY could be AN for December snowfall by Monday... that would be nice

10" so far... probably a couple more tomorrow.  then we see what happens

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll tell you what, I may have missed the mark on my first two-week KU window...I went with a slight chance Dec 1-15 out deference to 1981, but if I were to do it right now, I would tab about Jan 8-22, or 10-24th....others have mentioned this time frame, and I could see a phase-changer to herald in my +TNH regime. BAM tossed out Dec 30,2000 and Jan 7, 1996 (displaced north and probably not as excessive) as potential analogs and they were both seasons were in my package (the former is the main analog). 

[MJO812]

South shift on icon

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

South shit on icon

Yea, it certainly did shit on me...like most runs and storms.

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

South shit on icon

Shit or shift? Lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Shit or shift? Lol

Depends where you live. lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it certainly did shit on me...like most runs and storms.

I’ll tell you what. Heads are going to explode if this ends up getting crushed south. Everything rides over NNE or through NY and then the cold press shows up just in time to punt a good system down to the Mid Atlantic 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it certainly did shit on me...like most runs and storms.

i have big fingers. Sorry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ll tell you what. Heads are going to explode if this ends up getting crushed south. Everything rides over NNE or through NY and then the cold press shows up just in time to punt a good system down to the Mid Atlantic 

Just absolutely can not win....unbelievable. That said, I would be surprised if that actually ends up whiffing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It will probably end up like a situation where it will come back enough for CT, but I'll be bent over before the next MHT points north event hits.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just absolutely can not win....unbelievable. That said, I would be surprised if that actually end sup whiffing.

I agree. And I feel like I’ve seen mentioned here, these types of deals historically have ticked north in the last couple days.

The one real problem I see is the trajectory is pretty unfavorable the further east and NE you go. It’s a good look for CT, but not so much here

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will probably end up like a situation where it will come back enough for CT, but I'll be bent over before the next MHT points north event hits.

 

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I agree. And I feel like I’ve seen mentioned here, these types of deals historically have ticked north in the last couple days.

The one real problem I see is the trajectory is pretty unfavorable the further east and NE you go. It’s a good look for CT, but not so much here

Yup.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will probably end up like a situation where it will come back enough for CT, but I'll be bent over before the next MHT points north event hits.

I'd feel pretty good in most of SNE at this time.  I'm trying to talk off people in NYC/PHL that I don't think this can really get far enough south for them to be all or even mostly frozen.  Despite the block I don't like the upstream setup really to get this to be a northern MA event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I just want to open up my window, look up and scream at the top of my lungs, at this point.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just want to open up my window, look up and scream at the top of my lungs a scream at this point.

Therapy