December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

18z GFS was pretty skimpy on the qpf for here Friday.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It is a permanent issue. With a record warm west pacific year after year, that supercharges the pacific jet and/or southern stream and nothing is ever able to phase properly. Back in the 2010s, there would be bowling balls traversing CONUS and anywhere east of the Rockies would do well. Aside from 2021, that has been absent for most of the country. 2020, 2023, and 2024 were very good out west thouhh, with 2023 and 2024 having record snows for Rockies through upper Midwest and Great Lakes (even 2020 and 2019 to some extent.) But the northeast has been the loser time and again, and that’ll continue for as long as the west pacific remains very warm. Climate change will only exacerbate this. Welcome to the new normal. 

We crushed it here for a couple decades…it was bound to change. Other parts of the country getting their turn the last 4-5 yrs.
 

While we were pulling 12-16 inchers out of our ass Constantly, other parts of the country were baking, and drying out.  It happens. It happened before.   Just gotta roll with it.. it will change.  But until it does, we take it on the chin.
 

NNE just crushed it the last 3 weeks..best start in history perhaps.?  And Virginia and Delaware and NC doing real well too…we stuck In between. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z GFS was pretty skimpy on the qpf for here Friday.

We like that…let’s keep you guys and the county in the snow. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lot of hyperbole amidst kernels of truth. 

For sure. Silly folks. 

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It is a permanent issue. With a record warm west pacific year after year, that supercharges the pacific jet and/or southern stream and nothing is ever able to phase properly. Back in the 2010s, there would be bowling balls traversing CONUS and anywhere east of the Rockies would do well. Aside from 2021, that has been absent for most of the country. 2020, 2023, and 2024 were very good out west thouhh, with 2023 and 2024 having record snows for Rockies through upper Midwest and Great Lakes (even 2020 and 2019 to some extent.) But the northeast has been the loser time and again, and that’ll continue for as long as the west pacific remains very warm. Climate change will only exacerbate this. Welcome to the new normal. 

The climate has always been changing. Probably why we had shitty ass winters in the 80s and some amazing ones after... and before that. NO one can say this is permanent, and likely isn't. Pattern will continue to morph as it always has, it's the outcome and downstream changes we have no idea about. 

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

We like that…let’s keep you guys and the county on the snow. 

I think the places to the NW and up into Northern Maine should hang on.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This has been one of the most boring “active patterns” ever and the fact that we have the cold air has been a bit maddening.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The cutter on Friday sucks, but at least the weather will be a little bit interesting that day.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This has been one of the most boring “active patterns” ever and the fact that we have the cold air has been a bit maddening.  

If you were 60 miles north, or 700 miles south(VA, NC, DE)..you’d have alot of snow the last few weeks. That’s the funny part. 

[H2Otown_WX]

50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing is a permanent issue. Will seems to think there will be plenty of shortwaves careening through in this flow…just whether or not we are on the right side of things.  
 

And I asked that of Will, because yesterday he said he expected some changes coming over the next few days in modeling due to the volatility of the projected pattern…so I was not confused. 

I'm just messin with you with the confused emoji. I guess time will tell. It doesn't look like an overly promising pattern but perhaps we end up just far enough north or south to benefit. Weird to see shortwaves getting shunted south on the GFS in what's supposed to be some epic warm pattern at least for the central US.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The cutter on Friday sucks, but at least the weather will be a little bit interesting that day.

Not to me. No interest in rain and overhyped wind gusts of a pedestrian magnitude.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to me. No interest in rain and overhyped wind gusts of a pedestrian magnitude.

This is going to be nothing special really, I mean gust to 40 mph happens here a lot.

[TheMainer]

51 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think the places to the NW and up into Northern Maine should hang on.

I'm praying for a 18z GFS scenario, almost all other guidance has us well over 1 inch of QPF. Maybe it'll have a clue. We can survive 0.75, our snow is light and fluffy and will compact and we'd be back in business with another 6-8 inches.

Riding from the house tomorrow afternoon for a quick 70 mile loop with some buddies in case Friday goes real sour. 

[brooklynwx99]

the 23rd and 26th are both pretty interesting as vorts come over the top of that C US ridge. could be some WAA thumps

[dryslot]

Just now, TheMainer said:

I'm praying for a 18z GFS scenario, almost all other guidance has us well over 1 inch of QPF. Maybe it'll have a clue. We can survive 0.75, our snow is light and fluffy and will compact and we'd be back in business with another 6-8 inches.

Riding from the house tomorrow afternoon for a quick 70 mile loop with some buddies in case Friday goes real sour. 

The pack should be able to absorb that amount, That's a good idea though going out tomorrow, Someone asked on FB if they thought trails would be good to come up and ride this weekend........lol, Stay the hell off of them after this storm and let them freeze back up.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 23rd and 26th are both pretty interesting as vorts come over the top of that C US ridge. could be some WAA thumps

6 and 8 days away respectively…so lots will morph and change over the next 4-5 days. But at least there’s some potential. 

[dryslot]

SWFE.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

The pack should be able to absorb that amount, That's a good idea though going out tomorrow, Someone asked on FB if they thought trails would be good to come up and ride this weekend........lol, Stay the hell off of them after this storm and let them freeze back up.

We’re hoping for a week from Friday…the 26th for St Agatha.  They’re grooming and in decent shape up there…but Friday is gonna be key.  And if they can grab something after Friday?  So the less rain the better way up there for our possible plans. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We’re hoping for a week from Friday…the 26th for St Agatha.  They’re grooming and in decent shape up there…but Friday is gonna be key.  And if they can grab something after Friday?  So the less rain the better way up there for our possible plans. 

Need to get thru friday and early saturday up there, But it looks like snow showers off and on thereafter for a couple days, Have to wait to see how things shake out next week, But i think up there some of these clippers or overrunning events are going to pan out .

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Need to get thru friday and early saturday up there, But it looks like snow showers off and on thereafter for a couple days, Have to wait to see how things shake out next week, But i think up there some of these clippers or overrunning events are going to pan out .

Right now…they’re calling for a half inch of rain up there…not overly horrible. But I’d love it to be even less than that. 

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Right now…they’re calling for a half inch of rain up there…not overly horrible. But I’d love it to be even less than that. 

.50" won't do squat to the pack, The temps and dews will do some damage though but its short lived, Clubs will be out panning and rolling the trails after but the best thing is for folks to stay off of them until they set back up.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The cutter on Friday sucks, but at least the weather will be a little bit interesting that day.

We’ve always said .. at least screamers bring exciting weather, damage etc. If you’re gonna lose pack .. at least have it come with some exciting weather 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

The pack should be able to absorb that amount, That's a good idea though going out tomorrow, Someone asked on FB if they thought trails would be good to come up and ride this weekend........lol, Stay the hell off of them after this storm and let them freeze back up.

Not with 50-60 gusts and high dews 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not with 50-60 gusts and high dews 

That's DE Maine, Not much snow there.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Aside from random piles, most of the snowcover will be gone by tomorrow here, and I'd imagine most of SNE. Hard to call the 19th cutter a grincher now, unless theres some damage to be done up north. 

Yeah it’s gone here, completely. 12/14/25-12/17/25. What a winter run

[WxWatcher007]

Some of what we’ve been talking about here. Odd pattern with potential that could cut sharply either way. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Some of what we’ve been talking about here. Odd pattern with potential that could cut sharply either way. 

As long as it remains cold to the pole and to our north. No sustained warmth ever gets into the NE. It’s happened all fall and should continue. Hopefully that brings snow/ ice opps because if it’s cold and dry like it’s been . Heaven help this place 

[Typhoon Tip]

there’s some angry denialism goin on in here tonight 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to me. No interest in rain and overhyped wind gusts of a pedestrian magnitude.

Yeah, it doesn't actually excite me, I just need something to happen.  Losing the snow suck tho'

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, TheMainer said:

I'm praying for a 18z GFS scenario, almost all other guidance has us well over 1 inch of QPF. Maybe it'll have a clue. We can survive 0.75, our snow is light and fluffy and will compact and we'd be back in business with another 6-8 inches.

Riding from the house tomorrow afternoon for a quick 70 mile loop with some buddies in case Friday goes real sour. 

 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

The pack should be able to absorb that amount, That's a good idea though going out tomorrow, Someone asked on FB if they thought trails would be good to come up and ride this weekend........lol, Stay the hell off of them after this storm and let them freeze back up.

 

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We’re hoping for a week from Friday…the 26th for St Agatha.  They’re grooming and in decent shape up there…but Friday is gonna be key.  And if they can grab something after Friday?  So the less rain the better way up there for our possible plans. 

This was Islanders Pond, VT yesterday. You don’t have to watch the entire video lol. Very nice for opening day. And I had to work