December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just get me a GD inch 

TWSS

[SouthCoastMA]

Don't sleep on 12/8 yet? Long shot, but vort has trended a bit sharper/further south over New England on 6z GFS/Euro.. Remains progressive but maybe some can score an inch or two. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Don't sleep on 12/8 yet? Long shot, but vort has trender a bit sharper/further south over New England. Remains progressive but maybe some can score an inch or two. 

I saw that especially on gfs, but euro is a sheared out mess. I guess give it a day or so. 

[weatherwiz]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

One good part about this pattern is that it looks very active in the flow. Sometimes we’ll get cold patterns and then have to wait days and days to see even a decent shortwave show up in the flow but this is not one of those looks. It doesn’t mean we get buried but you always want to increase your odds. 
 

Getting a bit out in clown range, but it looks active even after any potential reload mid-month. 

Mid-month is very interesting. As tip alluded to yesterday, that 500mb features lots of shortwaves digging and amplifying slightly south of Long Island...you keep feeding a constant supply of shortwaves and something is bound to give. I will say though and I know this leads to debate, but I would feel MUCH better if we had some southern stream involvement. If there was some southern stream feeding energy we could probably say the odds are almost certain something would happen.

[MJO812]

SOI value this morning. 

-43.70

Tanking

[Sey-Mour Snow]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw that especially on gfs, but euro is a sheared out mess. I guess give it a day or so. 

Euro OP has been horrendous lately it seems, let's hope GFS has a clue.. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SOI value this morning. 

-43.70

Tanking

(Southern oscillation index?)…And what is the significance of that actually on the pattern?  If any? 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro OP has been horrendous lately it seems, let's hope GFS has a clue.. 

maybe both of them together can find a nut? 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SOI value this morning. 

-43.70

Tanking

I'd be careful just using a daily SOI value to assess. Not saying it isn't tanking (haven't looked lately) but those daily values can be heavily influenced by local weather phenomena and weather systems. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will didn't vote, but I know he can only make the 13th. Let me put it this way...who plans to attend Saturday and would not be able to, or would not, do the 13th??

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

(Southern oscillation index?)…And what is the significance of that actually on the pattern?  If any? 

Correct, southern Oscillation Index. 

It's a measure of the SLP pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia which can in turn be used in conjunction with ENSO as one metric to assess how coupled the atmosphere/ocean are. SOI alone doesn't hold significance or weight on the pattern (at least in terms of influences here) but it can enhance the effects an ENSO event will have on the pattern across the PAC which could have some downstream bearing here. 

SOI (along with Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI)) can provide a more accurate assessment of the true strength of an ENSO event versus ONI alone.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I can't make this one, Ray - previous plans

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I can't make this one, Ray - previous plans

Hopefully a hot date with Heather Archambault!

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Correct, southern Oscillation Index. 

It's a measure of the SLP pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia which can in turn be used in conjunction with ENSO as one metric to assess how coupled the atmosphere/ocean are. SOI alone doesn't hold significance or weight on the pattern (at least in terms of influences here) but it can enhance the effects an ENSO event will have on the pattern across the PAC which could have some downstream bearing here. 

SOI (along with Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI)) can provide a more accurate assessment of the true strength of an ENSO event versus ONI alone.

So in layman’s terms, it’s really no big deal, right? We are in a Niña…does the SOI tanking mean the Nina is getting stronger, or again you have to measure it along with the other indexes you mentioned, to actually know anything.  
 

Sounds like a lot of mumbo jumbo that tells us very little in the end.  

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I can't make this one, Ray - previous plans

Boobs 4 days?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully a hot date with Heather Archambault!

Maybe the date can bring about a “changeable event” 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So in layman’s terms, it’s really no big deal, right? We are are in Niña…does the SOI tanking mean the Nina is getting stronger, or again you have to measure it along with the other indexes you mentioned, to actually know anything.  
 

Sounds like a lot of mumbo jumbo that tells us very little in the end.  

I'll have to go look at the latest SOI now but something about what he posted doesn't make sense. A prolonged period of negative SOI would typically coincide with EL Nino conditions while a prolonged period of positive SOI coincides with La Nina. 

A tanking SOI would imply either going towards EL Nino or an ongoing EL Nino event would be strengthening. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'll have to go look at the latest SOI now but something about what he posted doesn't make sense. A prolonged period of negative SOI would typically coincide with EL Nino conditions while a prolonged period of positive SOI coincides with La Nina. 

A tanking SOI would imply either going towards EL Nino or an ongoing EL Nino event would be strengthening. 

Wow..ok. Thanks for the info Paul. 

[kdxken]

So much for the snow melting. Got about an inch the other day and it hasn't even melted off the wood in the middle of the field. 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Don't sleep on 12/8 yet? Long shot, but vort has trended a bit sharper/further south over New England on 6z GFS/Euro.. Remains progressive but maybe some can score an inch or two. 

Actually, 6z euro looks better.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Richmond will have more snow season to date than Methuen MA. by later tomorrow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe the date can bring about a “changeable event” 

With any luck, a bit of "phasing"...and subsequent propagation.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow..ok. Thanks for the info Paul. 

Looking quickly, after peaking mid-November, the SOI seems to have been on a rapid decline but this could also be due to local weather patterns and system influencing Tahiti and Australia. But let's say that is not the case...based on SSTA trends, an argument could be made the La Nina has already peaked (at least for this season). But this is just a very quick, basic assessment. but not sure what point he was trying to make posting a daily contribution to the SOI value  

[CoastalWx]

I’m like Griswold’s boss on the phone right now.  “just give me something….anything!!”

[SouthCoastMA]

Oh how we pray that something akin to the 6z OP GFS pans out in the 12/15-12/21 timeframe. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking quickly, after peaking mid-November, the SOI seems to have been on a rapid decline but this could also be due to local weather patterns and system influencing Tahiti and Australia. But let's say that is not the case...based on SSTA trends, an argument could be made the La Nina has already peaked (at least for this season). But this is just a very quick, basic assessment. but not sure what point he was trying to make posting a daily contribution to the SOI value  

JB gets excited about the SOI. He has always said that watch out when the SOI tanks. Active weather will be on the way.