December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just get me a GD inch 

TWSS

[SouthCoastMA]

Don't sleep on 12/8 yet? Long shot, but vort has trended a bit sharper/further south over New England on 6z GFS/Euro.. Remains progressive but maybe some can score an inch or two. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Don't sleep on 12/8 yet? Long shot, but vort has trender a bit sharper/further south over New England. Remains progressive but maybe some can score an inch or two. 

I saw that especially on gfs, but euro is a sheared out mess. I guess give it a day or so. 

[weatherwiz]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

One good part about this pattern is that it looks very active in the flow. Sometimes we’ll get cold patterns and then have to wait days and days to see even a decent shortwave show up in the flow but this is not one of those looks. It doesn’t mean we get buried but you always want to increase your odds. 
 

Getting a bit out in clown range, but it looks active even after any potential reload mid-month. 

Mid-month is very interesting. As tip alluded to yesterday, that 500mb features lots of shortwaves digging and amplifying slightly south of Long Island...you keep feeding a constant supply of shortwaves and something is bound to give. I will say though and I know this leads to debate, but I would feel MUCH better if we had some southern stream involvement. If there was some southern stream feeding energy we could probably say the odds are almost certain something would happen.

[MJO812]

SOI value this morning. 

-43.70

Tanking

[Sey-Mour Snow]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw that especially on gfs, but euro is a sheared out mess. I guess give it a day or so. 

Euro OP has been horrendous lately it seems, let's hope GFS has a clue.. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SOI value this morning. 

-43.70

Tanking

(Southern oscillation index?)…And what is the significance of that actually on the pattern?  If any? 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro OP has been horrendous lately it seems, let's hope GFS has a clue.. 

maybe both of them together can find a nut? 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SOI value this morning. 

-43.70

Tanking

I'd be careful just using a daily SOI value to assess. Not saying it isn't tanking (haven't looked lately) but those daily values can be heavily influenced by local weather phenomena and weather systems.