December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The way this system is currently modeled is pretty much on point with the way the last half decade has gone in SNE. If it’s not one thing it’s another.

 

a few days ago this was weak and well SE of the area. So that corrects positively and is no modeled as a stronger, closer storm. However, the high pressure is now retreating at record speed, so the end result is a cold rain for many, outside of CNE.

Man.... You are the most pessimistic guy I know LOL. I'm not saying that this outcome is not a possibility, but it's also not the final outcome. I think we have a great chance of staying wintry even if it's not all snow, anywhere 84 North

..... I didn't realize how East you are and close to the cape. Yeah, I think you're cooked.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

EDIT:  Just signed the contract.  Wasn't expecting to be doing that this morning!  Mattepoisett here we come.

Congrats. Next stop ACK?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna be tough for coastal and SE peeps. This isn’t their storm unless it threads the needle.  
 

I think interior SNE could do well though. 

I have zero expectations here. 12/2 isn’t our game generally.

 

Id say far interior, like out in western MA could do well if the modeling continues to look like this. I wouldn’t expect much inside of 495 if something like the ICON verifies

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I have zero expectations here. 12/2 isn’t our game generally.

 

Id say far interior, like out in western MA could do well if the modeling continues to look like this. I wouldn’t expect much inside of 495 if something like the ICON verifies

Yeah I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say if the most amped solution verifies, metrowest to 495 would have a lot of trouble getting accumulating snow. 
 

But there’s a plethora of solutions that are colder as well and this is likely to oscillate some on guidance until we are a bit closer. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say if the most amped solution verifies, metrowest to 495 would have a lot of trouble getting accumulating snow. 
 

But there’s a plethora of solutions that are colder as well and this is likely to oscillate some on guidance until we are a bit closer. 

Any chance we can get that high to lock in a bit more?

I feel like that aspect of this is fleeting, and that was our shot down here. 6z euro was probably closest to doing that.

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok so it’s not a true coastal on that depiction then?  Kind of a hybrid? 

That's what I'm thinking... A little bit of both, which adds to the complexity!  Fun times ahead... I just hope folks enjoy the action and don't get overly hung up and only MBY outcomes.

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS looks less amped 

[Baroclinic Zone]

High is pressing more on 12z GFS. Should come in a hair south/colder.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

High is pressing a bit more this run. Should make it at least a little cooler to start for most areas

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Any chance we can get that high to lock in a bit more?

I feel like that aspect of this is fleeting, and that was our shot down here. 6z euro was probably closest to doing that.

Yeah it could def come in a little better. I don’t think the fundamentals of the system are going to change drastically at this point (it will still be retreating during the event) but if the high holds a little stronger, then it would definitely make a difference. 

[weatherwiz]

Pretty solid ulvl divergence over the region. Love seeing where the 850 low begins to develop and track too. Would like to see a bit more consolidated vorticity field but I am intrigued and excited. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs is much colder. Nice hit for most of SNE

[ineedsnow]

SNE crushed

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is a great run for SNE/CNE….CNE would prob get some ML goodies even if modeled QPF is less. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Wow, that was a solid run for the area.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is a great run for SNE/CNE….CNE would prob get some ML goodies even if modeled QPF is less. 

The gfs just produced what we just talked about. That’s how it becomes a good event even here. High retreats slower and the storm is slightly weaker 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That’s a really solid shift SE on that run. You went from rain to NH to now rain confined for SE Mass

[Typhoon Tip]

This isn’t relaying off the eastern Pacific via a S route/split stream (along the 564) until ~ Sat morning … traversing the continent in 72 hrs in fast compression/progressive flow type. 

Those circumstances don’t lend to confidence even at this range. Still, at least the wave space actually existing in the field is higher confidence. Something’s there.  But smaller giga corrections are like .5 deg on golf ball swing ending up on the left or right side of the fairway at a 200+ yd drive  - it’s why fast flow bangs around model perf  

I’m also leery of model-biased amplitude —> correcting down post arrivals out of assimilation regions.  Once this relays into the denser sounding array, as we’ve observed more frequently than not … there’s been this recurring theme of correction toward less by 20some % … suggesting an over evaluation was taking place and running that out into mid range results in fantasy. 

[Layman]

33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

EDIT:  Just signed the contract.  Wasn't expecting to be doing that this morning!  Mattepoisett here we come.

Congrats and Happy Thanksgiving!

[ineedsnow]

CMC going to be good

[ineedsnow]

Crushed!

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC going to be good

Looks in-between icon and GFS. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The pattern recognition/suggestion/modulating favorably into the first week of Dec has been in the scaffolding of the outlook since at least two weeks ago. It’s not suddenly emerging thus challenging … that’s good. Perhaps even reassuring but I could see this robbing 20 someodd percent squeeze limiting things.  Interesting testing modeling perf this time vs that leitmotif 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks in-between icon and GFS. 

Definitely came in colder than 00z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

CMC still a mess, but definitely came in colder than 00z. Decent trends from non icon models so far 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The pattern recognition/suggestion/modulating favorably into the first week of Dec has been in the scaffolding of the outlook since at least two weeks ago. It’s not suddenly emerging thus challenging … that’s good. Perhaps even reassuring but I could see this 20 someone’s percent squeeze limiting things.  Interesting testing modeling perf

Vort def gets squeezed as it heads east. It’s the classic opposing forces we often see in these types of setups where the downstream WAA/ridge pumping is being offset by the confluence up in Quebec. 

[ineedsnow]

12z UKIE crushes!

[ineedsnow]

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

128 gradient 

[Typhoon Tip]

Perhaps too early to drill into details but a flatter wave correction toward middling low depth will tend to parallel the flow with the isobaric layout 

… basically an ENE vs a NNE/NE with cf genesis … that’s going mean snow tot headaches for eastern zones.