December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

You aren't getting snow in the city next week. High is retreating, low will cut west. Not enough cold out ahead of it either. 

It's a lost cause

Quite possible but its still close to watch it. 

[eduggs]

The surface features aren't driving this outcome. The position and strength of the surface highs and lows follow the upper levels.

The trend over the past 2 days is for the shortwave to not "dig" as far south. The vortmax that passes through the Great Lakes is becoming increasingly prominent. The path of this shortwave and vorticity advection ends up tracking pretty similarly to Sunday's wave that precedes it. That leads to a stronger surface reflection (primary) near Western PA and southeasterly low level flow that quickly changes snow to rain along the coastal plain.

The hope is that maybe guidance is keying on the wrong packet of vorticity and that the models will shift back towards a more favorable trof evolution. As of now this is transitioning towards a SWFE-type event that favors the interior, particularly New England. But it's still close to a wintry outcome... and highly trackable.