December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[wthrmn654]

Side note just got home from work and I found 1 of the 2 great horned owls talking in front of my house.  While a fox is barking somewhere in the woods behind house. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a bit milder with temperatures returning to the lower 40s with another brief push of somewhat cooler air following for Monday. No exceptionally cold or warm weather appears likely for the first week of astronomical winter.

In terms of precipitation, light snow or snow showers are possible on Tuesday. 

The closing week of December could experience periodic warmer and cooler days. It now appears that the cooler anomalies will persist mainly in central and northern New England. 

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° has increased further. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +8.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.749 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[North and West]

I’ll be honest, maybe it’s just the pessimistic side of me, but I have 0 confidence in much snow at all this winter. After so many bad winters, I find it plausible that we can have almost a total shutout. I see a strengthening PV coming up after new years, and a -NAO block but no help on pacific side. Long range looks like hot garbage to me, at a time where we are prime for our most snow.  Looks terrible 

Don’t forget to remind friends and loved ones this Wednesday that Santa isn’t real.


.

[sussexcountyobs]

Clear. 26.8

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Remember the year with lots of snow on the ground until the 23 and gone by xmas? That was the ultimate kick in the balls. Lots of ice on the roads 31F

Yeah, Christmas 2020 was very rough for the ski resorts with the fastest loss of a near 40”+snowpack around BGM on record for late December.

Climatological Data for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY - December 2020

2020-12-17	22	15	18.5	-9.2	46	0	1.69	26.4	39
2020-12-18	22	8	15.0	-12.4	50	0	0.00	0.0	31
2020-12-19	24	3	13.5	-13.6	51	0	0.00	0.0	29
2020-12-20	31	21	26.0	-0.9	39	0	0.14	1.8	26
2020-12-21	36	29	32.5	5.9	32	0	0.02	T	25
2020-12-22	34	27	30.5	4.1	34	0	0.01	0.1	22
2020-12-23	36	22	29.0	2.8	36	0	0.00	0.0	20
2020-12-24	50	34	42.0	16.1	23	0	1.55	0.0	19
2020-12-25	53	20	36.5	10.8	28	0	0.80	0.8	1

 

Data for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1969-12-25	18	-8	0.16	2.4	14
1969-12-26	25	16	0.93	13.6	18
1969-12-27	21	16	0.14	4.9	32
1969-12-28	24	20	0.01	1.0	33
1969-12-29	26	16	0.00	0.0	29
1969-12-30	29	24	T	T	24
1969-12-31	27	9	0.31	2.5	20
1970-01-01	19	5	0.00	0.0	19
1970-01-02	17	1	T	T	18
1970-01-03	26	13	0.09	1.7	18
1970-01-04	20	9	0.01	0.3	18
1970-01-05	27	8	0.01	0.3	17
1970-01-06	24	17	T	0.1	18
1970-01-07	20	12	T	T	18
1970-01-08	12	-1	T	0.3	18
1970-01-09	5	-7	T	T	18
1970-01-10	17	5	0.06	2.1	19
1970-01-11	23	13	0.01	0.2	20
1970-01-12	22	14	0.15	2.3	21
1970-01-13	24	15	0.05	2.0	23
1970-01-14	15	7	0.02	0.6	24
1970-01-15	12	2	T	T	24
1970-01-16	35	7	0.00	0.0	23

[SACRUS]

34 / 31 clear - winter solstice at 10:02 AM ET today.  Low - mid 40s and sunny today, back colder Mon/Tue with the light snow/mix/rain on Tue PM.  Warmer overall Christmas Eve - Dec 28th, then a shot of cold 29 - 31 and next storm threat / track looks west/inlad but will see.  Warmer overall beyond then before turning colder by the 4-6th.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (2013)
NYC: 65 (2013)
LGA: 62 (2018)
JFK: 59 (2011)

Lows:

EWR: 0 (1942)
NYC: -2 (1871)
LGA: -1 (1942)
JFK: 12 (2004)

Historical:

 

1892 - Portland, OR, was buried under a record 27.5 inches of snow. (21st-24th) (The Weather Channel)

1929 - An exceptional storm produced snow from the Middle Rio Grande Valley of Texas to southern Arkansas. The storm produced 26 inches of snow at Hillsboro TX, 18 inches at El Dorado AR, and 14 inches at Bossier LA. (21st-22nd) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)


1942: Richmond Virginia had its earliest 0 °F day or lower minimum temperature in the winter on this date when the minimum was -1 °F. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)

1964 - A great warm surge from the Pacific Ocean across Oregon and northern California brought torrential rains on a deep snow cover resulting in record floods. (David Ludlum)

 

1967: Four tornadoes swept across Grant, Blackford, Wells, and Adams counties in Indiana, reaching F3 intensity in Grant and Blackford Counties. A tornado causing F4 damage killed 3 people and injured 52 others in Iron County, Missouri.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
An F2 tornado skipped along a 35-mi. path from Lithium, MO, to near Pinckneyville, IL. $5+ million damage at MO’s Perry County Airport where, amazingly, only 1 of 150 workers badly hurt. Near Percy, IL, a woman and baby were carried approx. 400 yards and survived.(Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1968: A record breaking snowstorm pounded portions of South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa through the 22nd. Heavy snows were accompanied by winds gusting over 50 mph producing widespread blowing snow. Drifts up to 10 feet deep across the area stopped traffic. Amounts piled up to 18 inches in southeast South Dakota, over 12 inches in southwest Minnesota, and 6 to 15 inches in northwest Iowa. The 24-hour total from this date through the 22nd of 16.6 inches at Sioux Falls, SD set the December one day snow total record. December snow total records were set at over 40 locations in Minnesota, thanks in part to this storm.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: An extremely bitter cold arctic air mass prevailed from the Midwest to the West Coast bringing numerous record low temperatures for the date including: Butte, MT: -43 °F, White Sulphur Springs, MT: -40 °F, Casper, WY: -37 °F, Livingston, MT: -33 °F, Valentine, NE: -32 °F, Boulder, MT: -31 °F, Townsend, MT: -31 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1987 - High winds continued along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. During the morning hours winds gusted to 64 mph at Cheyenne WY, and reached 97 mph near Boulder CO. Gale force winds prevailed across the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Seven cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Charleston SC with a reading of 78 degrees. A storm in the northwestern U.S. produced 22 inches of snow at Idaho City ID in two days, and up to two feet of snow at Happy Camp CA. Ski resorts in Idaho reported three to six feet of snow on the ground. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty cities in the north central U.S., including thirteen in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. Havre and Jordan, MT, tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 43 degrees below zero, and the temperature remained close to 40 degrees below zero through the daylight hours. Dickinson ND reported a morning low of 33 degrees below zero and a wind chill reading of 86 degrees below zero. The high for the date of 16 degrees below zero at Sioux Falls SD was December record for that location. (The National Weather Summary)

1990: Behind the front, a deep upper level low and trough brought brutally cold arctic air from the Rockies to the West Coast. Casper, WY set their all-time record low for December with -41 °F. Locations reporting daily record lows for the date included: Wisdom, MT: -49 °F, West Yellowstone, MT: -46 °F, Lincoln Ranger Station, MT: -42 °F, Stanford, MT: -40 °F, Ahead of the front several locations from the Ohio Valley and East Coast reported record high temperatures for the date including: Tampa, FL: 85 °F, Tallahassee, FL: 80 °F-Tied, Charleston, WV: 74 °F, Cape Hatteras, NC: 73 °F-Tied, Huntington, WV: 72 °F-Tied, Jackson, KY: 71 °F, Elkins, WV: 69 °F-Tied, Boston, MA: 62 °F, Islip, NY: 55 °F and Binghamton, NY: 52 °F-Tied.(Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)
Des Moines, IA, reported freezing drizzle with a temperature of -2. McAlester, Oklahoma, reported a thunderstorm with sleet and 1/2 inch hail while at 13. All the result of a shallow, bitterly cold air mass overrun by warm air.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1996: 60 inches of snow fell in 24 hours at Truckee and Echo Summit, CA as a strong western storm came onshore. These totals were very close to the 24 hour snowfall record for the state of California, which was 67 inches set at Echo Summit on 1/4-5/1982.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1998 - Cold air spread into the southern San Joaquin Valley of California. For the next four nights, temperatures in the agricultural portions of Fresno, Tulare, and Kern counties dropped below 28 degrees for several hours at a time. In some locations, temperatures dipped into the teens. The California citrus industry suffered more than $600 million in damages due to the extreme cold.

[SACRUS]

 

sun rose at : 7:16 AM
Sun set : 4:32 PM  (1632) / 9:15:16 length 

 

 

[bluewave]

Really extreme swings in terms of snowfall and temperatures across the CONUS this month with California being a prime example.

 

[the_other_guy]

15 hours ago, North and West said:

Don’t forget to remind friends and loved ones this Wednesday that Santa isn’t real.


.

Can we get rid of this guy on here? This is supposed to be an intelligent weather forum. I have snowpiles on my lawn and I need to read this moron telling us on 12/21 that we are done with snow for the winter? Why are we tolerating posts like this?

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Can we get rid of this guy on here? This is supposed to be an intelligent weather forum. I have snowpiles on my lawn and I need to read this moron telling us on 12/21 that we are done with snow for the winter? Why are we tolerating posts like this?

There are a few others like him on here.

[Krs4Lfe]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are a few others like him on here.

As per my previous posts, there are legitimate reasons why I believe this winter will not be conducive for snowfall. Doesn't mean "winter is over" or anything like that. But there are reasons as to why I believe that this winter might not be a good one, along with some thoughts on how the pattern can change. In the 2025-2026 ENSO page, I outlined those thoughts last night. 

[WX-PA]

27 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Can we get rid of this guy on here? This is supposed to be an intelligent weather forum. I have snowpiles on my lawn and I need to read this moron telling us on 12/21 that we are done with snow for the winter? Why are we tolerating posts like this?

First of all winter is far from over.if we get a few inches Tuesday morning, ,might be enough for a white Christmas. Second with NAO and AO going negative...we will have several shots in the next few weeks..Models have not picked up on the -NAO....a few days Christmas day was forecasted to be in the 60's..now the 30's.Stop looking at the long range Euro or GFS..it's wrong.

[vegan_edible]

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

As per my previous posts, there are legitimate reasons why I believe this winter will not be conducive for snowfall. Doesn't mean "winter is over" or anything like that. But there are reasons as to why I believe that this winter might not be a good one, along with some thoughts on how the pattern can change. In the 2025-2026 ENSO page, I outlined those thoughts last night. 

damage control activated

[North and West]

Can we get rid of this guy on here? This is supposed to be an intelligent weather forum. I have snowpiles on my lawn and I need to read this moron telling us on 12/21 that we are done with snow for the winter? Why are we tolerating posts like this?

.

[the_other_guy]

dr

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

Not you. The guy you responded to haha

[wthrmn654]

You all risk upsetting  @BxEngineand being banned.

 

just a friendly reminder of his post the other day..

[bluewave]

Big guidance beat today with some spots sneaking in a 50° high so far.

 

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   50  21  32 W18G29    

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big guidance beat today with some spots sneaking in a 50° high so far.

 

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   50  21  32 W18G29    

Yeah I was surprised how warm it felt this morning, felt like Spring compared to the cold we've had recently. Webb seems to think we're in for a warm winter unless the pacific has a big shake up. 

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big guidance beat today some spots sneaking in a 50° high so far.

 

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   50  21  32 W18G29    

We spiked to 48.4 at 9:40 am and are down 2 degrees since. That's been happening a lot recently with the max, or at least a secondary max before 10am.  I have no explanation for why.  I noticed the same on a couple of other local sensors.

[SACRUS]

 

probably reached todays (shortest day) high of 49 as clouds have settled in from the SW

 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We spiked to 48.4 at 9:40 am and are down 2 degrees since. That's been happening a lot recently with the max, or at least a secondary max before 10am.  I have no explanation for why.  I noticed the same on a couple of other local sensors.

Edit: It's still sunny here at 11:45a

[uofmiami]

7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We spiked to 48.4 at 9:40 am and are down 2 degrees since. That's been happening a lot recently with the max, or at least a secondary max before 10am.  I have no explanation for why.  I noticed the same on a couple of other local sensors.

Only 46 at my stations (46.6 & 46.4), currently 45 at both. 

[wthrmn654]

Only about 45-46 here as well. Quite windy today though so there's quite the wind chill

[psv88]

48 here at 11 am, 47 now 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Eric Webb says winter is ovvvvvaaaa rover!