December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MANDA]

Latest (12Z/30) EURO OP is locked, loaded and ready to discharge a bitter cold Arctic outbreak into the Mid-West / Lakes and Northeast starting next weekend.  Still time to work out the details on who gets how cold but reasonable confidence it is coming.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Probably our best bet for first accumulations of the season 

Colder airmass to start so yes I agree though similar setup to Tuesday with high escaping. Will depend on storm track 

Unfortunately think majority of snows occurs NW of our region. SNE and north will do really well. Borderline for NYC

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Snow Friday?

Looks like another interior event. Who could have guessed

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Looks like another interior event. Who could have guessed

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Looks like another interior event. Who could have guessed

 

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

Its a week away. Models have been horrible.

[MJO812]

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

looks pretty meh for the first two weeks

[Cobalt]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

looks pretty meh for the first two weeks

but I thought..

On 11/15/2025 at 10:59 AM, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm in the East starting Thanksgiving week

 

[psv88]

Thursday night looks very cold. Teens for many. 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, WX-PA said:

For the coast that is..inland does well, which is climo for early December

It’s climo for recent gradient patterns no matter what winter month it is. We warm up enough for mostly rain near the coast with amped systems. This was the case last February. But since February is colder we were able to get a little more snow on the front end before the changeover. 

[EastonSN+]

23 hours ago, WX-PA said:

For the coast that is..inland does well, which is climo for early December

Completely agree. I posted earlier this has a similar track as December 5/6 2009 with rain and white rain on the coast and snow inland. 

Unfortunately I had to witness this over and over again growing up in the 80s and 90s lol. Warm wet/cold dry. Good setup for the Middle Atlantic and great lakes though! 

[SACRUS]

37 / 24 mainly clear.  Dec opening cold and continuing at least the first 7 - 10 days.  Overall colder to much below normal through the 11th (at least).  Trough into the east with deeper cold Dec 4 - 9th.  Perhaps one sub freezing day even to the coast on Fri/Sat.  Would be surprised to not get above normal Dec snowfall this month.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2006)
NYC: 70 (2006)
LGA: 71 (2006)
JFK: 68 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 15 (1976)
NYC: 8 (1875)
LGA: 19 (1976)
JFK: 18 (1967)


Historical:

 

1831 - The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)

1896 - The temperature at Kipp, MT, rose 30 degrees in just seven minutes, and 80 degrees in a matter of a few hours. A thirty-inch snow cover was melted in half a day. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - A six day front range snowstorm began. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver CO. (David Ludlum)


1925: An extremely rare late November hurricane began to affect the west coast of Florida as it strengthened during the day. The storm made landfall very early on this date south of Tampa Bay, weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed central Florida, and exited around St. Augustine. The storm regained Hurricane strength off Jacksonville later in the day. Heavy rain continued over northeast Florida on the 2nd. Gale force winds were reported from the Keys to Jacksonville and over 50 people lost their lives, mostly on ships at sea. Damage along the coast south of Jacksonville was heavy and excessive rain and wind seriously damaged citrus and truck crops.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962: An upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley brought record high temperatures from the northern Plains, Midwest to the Ohio Valley and New York. The following locations reported their warmest December temperatures: Hatfield, WI: 64 °F, Decorah, IA: 63 °F and Charles City, IA: 62 °F. See other daily record high temperatures for the date included on reference link:  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1964: On this date through the 2nd, a severe windstorm hit the Canadian Maritimes packing winds gusting to 100 mph. Three fishing vessels and 23 lives were lost. Total damage due to high seas, wind and flooding was estimated at over $1 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1966: (1st-2nd) Helped by a Lake Erie temperature of 45 degrees, lake-effect snows deposited 55 inches in Mayville and 60 inches in Copenhagen, NY. Amazing snowfall rates on 2nd in Copenhagen: 6 inches/hour for 30 minutes, then 12 inches/hour between 2-3 p.m. today. Visibility reduced to 50 feet. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

 

1970: Four tornadoes impacted east-central Wisconsin during the morning hours. The strongest tornado, an F3, formed at 10:15 AM near Medina in Outagamie County.  The twister moved northeast at 50 mph and destroyed twenty barns and five houses. 

1978: A small tornado cut a path 6 miles long near Zephyrhills, FL. Three mobile homes were destroyed and 17 others were damaged. Five brooder houses were also destroyed, resulting in the death of about 3,000 chickens. A powerful winter storm began to produce heavy snows across mainly the Nebraska panhandle. By the time it ended the next day, Bridgeport, NE reported 15 inches and Scottsbluff, NE reported 11.5 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1982: 6.6 Inches snow in Washington, DC is only above average snow for December in the last 12 years. (Ref. Washington Weather Records KDCA)

1985 - A storm produced more than six inches of snow from the Northern and Central Plains to parts of Michigan, with 36.4 inches reported at Marquette MI. Many roads were blocked by snow. A family was stranded for 25 hours south of Colome SD. Drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Nebraska. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm hit the northwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cape Disappointment WA, and reached 94 mph at Cape Blanco OR. Thunderstorms in western Washington State produced wind gusts to 60 mph, and dime size hail at Hoquiam. Stevens Pass, in the Cascade Mountains of Washington, received seven inches of snow during the morning hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced up to a foot of snow in Ashtabula County OH, up to ten inches in Erie County PA, and up to a foot of snow in western New York State. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, with 12 inches reported at the Angel Fire Ski Basin. Strong northerly winds ushering cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Devils Lake ND. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Kodiak Island. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - Heavy lake effect snow fell downwind of the U.S. Great Lakes. Buffalo, New York reported 16 inches of snow, with thundersnow reported late in the afternoon. While the eastern U.S. experienced much colder than normal temperatures on December 1, much of Alaska was basking in above average warmth. Many daily temperature records were set across this region through the beginning of the month.

2006: A winter storm produced more than 6 inches of snow along a 1,000-mile-long path from central Oklahoma to northern Michigan from November 30-December 1st. The storm also produced significant freezing rain, which impacted the St. Louis area. An estimated 500 or more homes and businesses were without power in the St. Louis area after this storm. 

2007 - During December 1-3, a powerful storm with hurricane force winds struck the Northwest U.S. The storm brought heavy rain and wind gusts over 100 mph, with the highest reading being 129 mph at Bay City, OR. The strong winds brought power lines down, and the heavy rain caused widespread flooding and triggered landslides (BBC News). According to reports, 8 fatalities were attributed to the storm and about 37,000 homes and businesses were left without power in Washington, Oregon, and northern California. President Bush declared a federal disaster in several counties in Washington and Oregon to provide recovery assistance (Associated Press).

2011 - Wind speeds as high as 102 MPH were measured in Centerville, Utah and surrounding cities. Damage was reported throughout Weber and Davis counties ranging from South Ogden down to Bountiful. More than 400 trees were down at the Davis Golf course alone due to the winds. Up to 54,000 residences were without power throughout the day and into the evening. Train service between Layton and Salt Lake City was suspended due to damaged train stations, debris on the train tracks, and power outages. Cleanup costs totaled $8 million in Centerville alone. No injuries were reported from the wind, but a number of injuries were reported from those helping with the cleanup effort.

[NEG NAO]

when is the weekend storm thread going to start ? LOL

[anthonymm]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

when is the weekend storm thread going to start ? LOL

Not gonna happen cause it went poof. Bluewave is right. We either get cutters/coastal huggers like Tues, or when the actual cold is in place like this weekend, suppressed tracks. The atmosphere in the 2020s is finding every way to not track a low up the benchmark when there's cold air around in the east. It's like a lesson in how to not get snow

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Not gonna happen cause it went poof. Bluewave is right. We either get cutters/coastal huggers like Tues, or when the actual cold is in place like this weekend, suppressed tracks. The atmosphere in the 2020s is finding every way to not track a low up the benchmark when there's cold air around in the east. It's like a lesson in how to not get snow

Its December 1 for crying out loud.

[Brian5671]

People expect too much-they see -NAO or this or that and think December 2003 is coming.   Those months are exceedingly rare.    It's simply too early for snow especially for 75% of this forum

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its December 1 for crying out loud.

I believe its a function of not living through the lean years prior to 2000. People expect the bonanza of snowstorms during that time and get frustrated when we regress back to the mean.

[psv88]

Still some hope that Friday/Saturday event gives us something 

[anthonymm]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its December 1 for crying out loud.

Sure. But we already see the pattern unfolding. huggers and suppressed, the dominant pattern since 2018.

[anthonymm]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

People expect too much-they see -NAO or this or that and think December 2003 is coming.   Those months are exceedingly rare.    It's simply too early for snow especially for 75% of this forum

The last few years is not the norm however either. We swung very hard in the other direction. 2022-2024 was the first central park saw back to back single digit " winters. It's unfortunate now that we can't get moderate yearly snowfalls in the 20"s like back in the 1980s. The default now is single digits or in the low teens" with rare exceptions like february 2021.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The last few years is not the norm however either. We swung very hard in the other direction. 2022-2024 was the first central park saw back to back single digit " winters. It's unfortunate now that we can't get moderate yearly snowfalls in the 20"s like back in the 1980s. The default now is single digits or in the low teens" with rare exceptions like february 2021.

Been beyond hideous outside of Jan 2022 and the winter of 20-21 that's for sure...

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Sure. But we already see the pattern unfolding. huggers and suppressed, the dominant pattern since 2018.

You can see into the future past this month? The MJO haven't even went into phase 8.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still some hope that Friday/Saturday event gives us something 

Its too early to give up on that one. Lets see what the models do once tomorrow's storm leaves.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too early to give up on that one. Lets see what the models do once tomorrow's storm leaves.

I think the look has gone more suppressive for sure in the 12/6-12/12 period.  I think after that the pattern could go active again but that period may be quiet across most of the country.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s climo for recent gradient patterns no matter what winter month it is. We warm up enough for mostly rain near the coast with amped systems. This was the case last February. But since February is colder we were able to get a little more snow on the front end before the changeover. 

I think people need to let go of the analogs of the past. We're in a completely different climate now. 

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The last few years is not the norm however either. We swung very hard in the other direction. 2022-2024 was the first central park saw back to back single digit " winters. It's unfortunate now that we can't get moderate yearly snowfalls in the 20"s like back in the 1980s. The default now is single digits or in the low teens" with rare exceptions like february 2021.

This is incorrect.

4 winters (40%) of the 1980s had below 20 inches of snowfall, the lowest 8.1 inches in 88/89.

[Krs4Lfe]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Been beyond hideous outside of Jan 2022 and the winter of 20-21 that's for sure...

I'd expect more of the same here. Even with cold air around, we get warmups during the storms and then cold/dry afterwards. Winter is exposing it's cards here. Good track, cold air around, but warmup during the storm. 

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is incorrect.

4 winters (40%) of the 1980s had below 20 inches of snowfall, the lowest 8.1 inches in 88/89.

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time.  NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters.  There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat.  88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89