11/8-11/10 First Snow and Lake Effect Event

[Geoboy645]

With the issuing of WSW's for Chicago and the N IN lake effect belts, I figured that this event has become thread-worthy. The main storm system isn't that notable, with the warm ground leading to at most an inch or two of accumulation for some higher terrain areas away from the lake. However, after the main system passes through we could have a significant lake effect event for so early in the year, especially on Sunday night into Monday. LOT and IWX have highlighted for the potential of at least several inches of snow wherever a main band sets up for any length of time. Combined with wind and the fact that leaves are still on the trees from the previously very warm autumn, this could be a potentially significant early-season event. Especially considering the possibility that one of the bands may set up into downtown Chicago and points south of the city, and the fact that this really has only become a thing within the last 24 hours. 

[sbnwx85]

TV mets hanging onto the warm ground concerns which won’t be a factor at night with high rates. Lake snows have dropped 18” this time of year with less favorable synoptics. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Far nw Iowa got up to 4" of snow this morning.  It is accumulating a little in Ames.  It is too warm here as the precip is arriving at peak heating.

[mimillman]

Lol

[Chicago916]

Updated "expected" snow maps upped a lot in Illinois to 7" expected in Chicago now. Probably cuz ^ and 18z hrrr.

[ILSNOW]

LOT

[mannynyc]

Very pretty in Grinnell, Iowa at the moment. Hopefully the lake effect bands cash in. 

[KeenerWx]

2 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

LOT

This map is so goofy. I get the uncertainty with lake effect. And that this map is generated with probabilistic inputs. But while technically accurate, the labels for Elgin, Joliet and Kankakee just don’t make sense with the corresponding color regions. 

[cyclone77]

Looks like even out this way we may get a burst of decent wet snow later this evening.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a DAB+

[Sciascia]

Flakes in Poplar Grove. I won’t be in on the lake effect fun, but the first snow of the season is always enjoyable.

[donsutherland1]

Ottawa has a snowfall warming for 4"-8". Detroit to Toronto should also see measurable snowfall. Winter is getting off to a good start parts of the Great Lakes Region.

From Environment Canada:

4:00 PM EST Saturday 8 November 2025

Snowfall Warning in effect for:

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans

Significant snowfall expected Sunday. What: Snowfall amounts of 10 to 20 cm. When: Beginning Sunday morning and continuing into Sunday night. Additional information: A low pressure system will bring snowfall to parts of southern Ontario on Sunday. Areas near the St. Lawrence River may see snow mix with ice pellets or freezing rain at times Sunday evening, leading to reduced snowfall amounts in that area. Motorists should expect difficult winter driving conditions and adjust travel plans accordingly. Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays. Visibility will likely be reduced at times.

[cyclone77]

First flakes of the season here, as we now have wet flakes mixing in.  Temp dropped pretty quickly from near 40 to 35 in the past hour or so.

0.58" rain so far.

[sbnwx85]

At the Notre Dame game and snow is already mixing in with the rain.

[A-L-E-K]

p&c with real accums lakeside

[sbnwx85]

All snow now.

[cyclone77]

Ripping cotton balls right now. Ground has quickly whitened.

[sbnwx85]

It took a couple of hours but we finally started seeing accumulation. DAB+

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Snow is coating the grass rapidly here, God I've missed it 

[TheNiño]

Official first flakes here. Also “ greater than 3in per hour goddamn!” Hope someone here gets under a band (and shares pictures with the class of course). 

[KeenerWx]

Switch to snow was late but not denied. Surprisingly efficient at covering the ground thus far. First flakes & measurable snowfall booked 

Edit 1 Hour Later: This defo band is serious business. It is ripping. Complete coverage of ground and pavement. Would certainly accumulate better with more favorable antecedent conditions. But wow - exceeding my own expectations. 

[TheNiño]

“Impossible travel conditions” not sure I’ve seen that wording before lol 

[KeenerWx]

Results TBD, but the early morning AFD from LOT is…quite 

[KeenerWx]

Picked up 1.8” so far. We shall see how the rest goes. But here’s one of my cats enjoying a view as the intensity of snowfall started to increase. 
 

 

[Powerball]

The latest LOT AFD is insane. Apparently, this has potential to make the history books. 

In our lifetime, I'm struggling to recall a similar type of setup, especially so early in the season.

I hope you Chicago folks enjoy!

[A-L-E-K]

So this is happening huh

Need to dig in

[A-L-E-K]

Are they 4 real?

 

[King James]

Winter storm warning all the way down here in East Central IL for up to 10 inches lol. We’re back boys!

[sbnwx85]

1.5” from the system. Hopefully it doesn’t all melt before the lake effect kicks in.

[sbnwx85]

27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Are they 4 real?

 

Potential for historic snows in the city! The mesolow looks to come ashore out here in Indiana (which keeps me in the game for a potential big dog) but it will be what dramatically shifts the main band into Chicago. Considering how deep the cold air is and how warm the lake is, expect at least 3” per hour rates. This is an extraordinary set up, so 6-8” per hour isn’t out of the question at times. I’ve only experienced 4” per hour snows once in my life and it was bonkers. It’s exciting but be ready to have your heart broken. This is Game 7 of the World Series, tied at 4-4 in extra innings. It could be glory or it could be nothing. The band and mesolow will ultimately do what they want but this is as good of a setup for Chicago as I’ve ever seen. I’m hoping the band shifts back east and holds together for a few more inches on Monday.

[sbnwx85]

Oh and quite a snippet from the LOT AFD

By the time the lake effect ends on Monday, total snow amounts
will vary considerably across short distances. Where the snow
bands are most intense, total snow accumulations of 12 to 18
inches are expected with a ceiling of 2 to 4 feet if snow bands
end up stationary. This threat appears to be most pronounced
over Cook county, but may extend to Lake County Illinois and
Lake County Indiana, as well.