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12th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest


RodneyS
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16 hours ago, RodneyS said:

 

Thanks.  I will wait until tomorrow to update. 

RIC snow has been finalized at 4.0 inches for December 8th, to bring the seasonal total there to 6.0 inches and shaking up our leaderboard.  We now have 13 negative departures at RIC, and @JenkinsJinkiescannot now catch @rjvanalsoverall. @LittleVillageWxis still in the lead, but a combined 1.1 inches of additional snow at RIC and DCA will make @rjvanalsthe new leader.

image.thumb.png.3abdf5daadca53535548e38fc84f9430.png

 

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On 12/9/2025 at 9:58 AM, RodneyS said:

RIC snow has been finalized at 4.0 inches for December 8th, to bring the seasonal total there to 6.0 inches and shaking up our leaderboard.  We now have 13 negative departures at RIC, and @JenkinsJinkiescannot now catch @rjvanalsoverall. @LittleVillageWxis still in the lead, but a combined 1.1 inches of additional snow at RIC and DCA will make @rjvanalsthe new leader.

image.thumb.png.3abdf5daadca53535548e38fc84f9430.png

 

Preliminary snow reports are in this morning for BWI (1.0 inches), DCA (0.3), and IAD (0.5). 

These amounts are not enough to change the leaderboard, but @rjvanalscontinues to inch closer to leader @LittleVillageWx 

I will update the table late this afternoon. 

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7 hours ago, RodneyS said:

Preliminary snow reports are in this morning for BWI (1.0 inches), DCA (0.3), and IAD (0.5). 

These amounts are not enough to change the leaderboard, but @rjvanalscontinues to inch closer to leader @LittleVillageWx 

I will update the table late this afternoon. 

DCA snow total today has been finalized at 0.4, and IAD snow total has been finallzed at 0.7. See updated seasonal totals below.  

image.thumb.png.51b601438246e91768716f7ac25de560.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Memo to snow gods ... don't need all my residuals tomorrow ... but do what you have to do!!!

(my airport predictions for 1/24-26 total DCA 5.5, IAD 8.2, BWI 8.8, RIC 3.7. ... I need about twice those amounts for the contest but let's be optimistic and say there will be more to come) Would be happy to get it all in this storm though. 

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5 hours ago, RodneyS said:

Based on current reports of 4.1 inches at BWI, 3.4 inches at DCA, 4.2 inches at IAD, and 1.0 inch at RIC, @rjvanalshas at last forged into the lead.  However, it appears that his reign will be brief after today's final numbers come in.

image.thumb.png.9978dabda94aef5e8b6ba90579bb687e.png

Finally RIC doesn't get more than us, lol

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59 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

Totals appear now to have been finalized for the Saturday-Sunday storm, and our new leader is @T. August

Fiftten of us have now been eliminated from winning (in red), :( and there are 39 negative departures at RIC.

 

image.thumb.png.4125c65f223e406da38bd26b0323e560.png

I will relish my 4th place status until i get eliminated with this weekends blizzard :)

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A hit at RIC (my residual is 3.0") combined with smaller amounts than I have left at the other three will knock out half to two-thirds of the remaining contenders no matter what happens later. I am the only one left with RIC snow to spare until you get way down into the big snow forecasts that will knock me out later I hope. -- except that Mappy also has 1.5" left and similar residuals elsewhere, so I guess together we couldl knock out all those others (residuals achieved = 2.0 x differential achieved). Our details on the other three are a bit different so mappy could survive a RIC 1.5 to 3.0 addition depending on how those break down. There are probably ways each of us could eliminate the other even if RIC goes past 3.0" additional. But that might be within a scenario where a larger set of forecasts eliminates both of us too.

Another well-placed RIC residual belongs to wxdude64 with 3.2" left ... if my other three numbers get overtaken by very much, wxdude64 is waiting to finish me off a few inches into the overdraft. The RIC component is worth 0.4" alone to wxdude64 (by the 2 to 1 rule). Basically I could be done halfway through any big storm that includes RIC, and before that if RIC is excluded. My best chance is a bunch of small events that nickel and dime towards my residuals and are generous to RIC. (once it goes past my residual, the 2:1 rule changes to 1:1 no advantage for further amounts against lower forecasts)

Exciting times, a contest with some suspense for the first time in several winters. 

With the pattern we have in place, some of the bigger numbers stand a chance but I like wxdude64's current situation and think that could be the favorite for bets right now.

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