November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

It seems as though the affected area is CPK/LGA through SNE. Eastern PA as well.

I am in awe of how much snow the Delmarva region has been getting.

I remember growing up it seemed to be always warm/wet cold/dry. I would watch the weather channel (before internet lol) and they would use the phrase "its just a cold SNAP for the northeast, temperatures will rebound nicely......". The delmarva area did extremely well back then also. 

I grew up hearing "north and west of the city" in the 90s for like literally every storm it felt like. Very frustrating for a kid who loved snow. 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I grew up hearing "north and west of the city" in the 90s for like literally every storm it felt like. Very frustrating for a kid who loved snow. 

Was the theme of the 80's as well despite some very cold snaps-storm track was either well out to sea or inland.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I grew up hearing "north and west of the city" in the 90s for like literally every storm it felt like. Very frustrating for a kid who loved snow. 

86-87 was one of those years when the 45-“50” amounts went just to our south with the El Niño that year. 
 

Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	70.0
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	53.9
LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	53.3
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	48.1
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	47.3
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	47.3
POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW	COOP	46.1
OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR	COOP	45.5
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	45.4
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	44.8

[FPizz]

On 11/21/2025 at 10:43 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

I thought there was supposed to be a big cold snap around Thanksgiving?

Tanning oil out for TCC

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

The record is a fluke. JFK went over 4 inches twice in 2024, one of them being over 6 inches.

 

Yeah, sucks for CPK.  Vast majority of the subforum has had a 4" snowfall.  But here that is all you will read about.

[forkyfork]

25 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Tanning oil out for TCC

here's that map with a more honest color scheme

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

here's that map with a more honest color scheme

And?  Its colder than normal when if you look at his posts, he thought torch

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Tanning oil out for TCC

Models also had mild weather for this time. Thats why its hard to take the long range seriously. 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

here's that map with a more honest color scheme

Whats wrong with it 

[bluewave]

We haven’t had any real cold around Thanksgiving since 2018.

 

Data for November 22, 2018 through November 23, 2018
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	4
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	6
CT	OXFORD WATERBURY	WBAN	6
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	6
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	7
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	7
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	7
NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	7
CT	DANBURY	COOP	9
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	9
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	10
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	11
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	11
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	11
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	12
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	12
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	12
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	13
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	13
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	13
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	13
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	13
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	13
CT	GROTON	COOP	13
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	13
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	14
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	14
NY	MATTITUCK	COOP	14
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	15
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	15
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	15
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	15
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	15
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	15

 

Data for November 22, 2018 through November 23, 2018
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2
NJ	SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	5
NJ	SUSSEX AIRPORT	WBAN	6
PA	SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE	COOP	7
PA	EAST STROUDSBURG	COOP	7
PA	BELTZVILLE DAM	COOP	8
PA	LEHIGHTON 1SSW	COOP	8
NJ	BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	8
NJ	AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT	WBAN	8
NJ	HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	9
NJ	WERTSVILLE 4 NE	COOP	9
NJ	SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	9
NJ	NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	9
PA	BLUE MARSH LAKE	COOP	10
PA	GRATERFORD 1 E	COOP	10
PA	SELLERSVILLE	COOP	10
PA	BUCKSVILLE	COOP	10
NJ	FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	10
NJ	FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	10
NJ	BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	10

[SnoSki14]

I remember the 2018 Thanksgiving cold snap, that was some serious mid winter style cold 

[TheClimateChanger]

44 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Tanning oil out for TCC

 

10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

And?  Its colder than normal when if you look at his posts, he thought torch

I didn't say anything about a torch. Just asked a question as bluewave's map of the Euro weekly showed +1 to +3C across the East this week (11/24 to 12/1).

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I remember the 2018 Thanksgiving cold snap, that was some serious mid winter style cold 

stayed in the mid 20's here that day-had to move the annual high school game up a day which was a bummer.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

I didn't say anything about a torch. Just asked a question as bluewave's map of the Euro weekly showed +1 to +3C across the East this week (11/24 to 12/1).

Looks a little above average but noting too extreme like I pointed out in my original post.

 

[Sundog]

34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

here's that map with a more honest color scheme

You should let the people at Pivotal Weather know about honest color schemes. Temperatures in the 60s there look like a heatwave. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

You should let the people at Pivotal Weather know about honest color schemes. Temperatures in the 60s there look like a heatwave. 

Nice GFS run for mid-next week (weenie)  

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Nice GFS run for mid-next week (weenie)  

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Nice GFS run for mid-next week (weenie)  

Euro

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro

Same storm track pattern heading into December. Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. Plus we haven’t had a gradient pattern work for us in over a decade. 

[eduggs]

I'm rooting for this day 5 shortwave on the CMC. It gets closest to a wintry outcome in the mid-range. I always root for mid-range instead of long-range fantasy-land. There's not much support on the ensembles, unfortunately. The ICON and UKMET might get a few flakes to the area, but everything is north and/or weak.

I don't even want to consider day 10+. Too unreliable.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same storm track pattern heading into December. Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. Plus we haven’t had a gradient pattern work for us in over a decade. 

Thats not the point.  The point is that many were posting how mild it is going to be. We just saw on the 12z runs how different they are with the warmup for early December. They look good for early December.  How do you know what the storm track will be ? All we can do is track it but a favorable pattern is coming up as the mjo heads into 8 in December. 

Alot of doubters on here. Its fine but at least admit when posters claim its going to be warm but then it turns out cold. 

[Tatamy]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, missing data interrupts the streaks even though they continue.

The only time we had some relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet in recent years was in mid-February 2024. That was when that really narrow snowband in association with the record El Nino STJ streak occurred.

But since it was only a one week pattern in such a warm winter, there wasn’t sufficient time for follow up events to occur and end the NYC and LGA streaks. So it upped the odds of the streak continuing at spots like NYC and LGA.

 

The I78 Deathband event in PA, NJ, and parts of the city.  It was like a synoptic scale lake effect streamer.  The town south of me had 6” on the north end and 10” on the south end (5 minute drive).  Similar in parts of NJ.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm rooting for this day 5 shortwave on the CMC. It gets closest to a wintry outcome in the mid-range. I always root for mid-range instead of long-range fantasy-land. There's not much support on the ensembles, unfortunately. The ICON and UKMET might get a few flakes to the area, but everything is north and/or weak.

I don't even want to consider day 10+. Too unreliable.

Euro is also close. Need the PV to squash the heights. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thats not the point.  The point is that many were posting how mild it is going to be. We just saw on the 12z runs how different they are with the warmup for early December. They look good for early December.  How do you know what the storm track will be ? All we can do is track it but a favorable pattern is coming up as the mjo heads into 8 in December. 

Alot of doubters on here. It’s fine but at least admit when posters claim it’s going to be warm but then it turns out cold. 

The significant trend the models have been showing for early December is more of a Southeast ridge. Of course every run is going to show the departures on any given day being a little different when we are talking week 2 modeling. Some days the ridge will pulse up and others pulse down. But the continuing very fast Pacific flow will continue to limit or storm track options at least into early December.

[MJO812]

[TheClimateChanger]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the LGA daily record streak under 4” is continuing also. There may be a glitch in the program they use to calculate. Since it shows it ending last January 10th and there were no daily 4” snowfall totals after that date. But there were several daily 3.5” totals last winter.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2025-11-22
1	1077	2022-01-30 through 2025-01-10
2	1051	1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22
3	761	2018-11-16 through 2020-12-15
4	746	1950-02-14 through 1952-02-29
5	744	1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04
6	743	1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21
7	742	2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07
8	715	1972-02-24 through 1974-02-07
9	701	1975-02-13 through 1977-01-13
10	690	1941-03-09 through 1943-01-27

 

Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - January 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1165	845	-	-	1003	0	0.51	4.1
2025-01-01	52	40	46.0	9.9	19	0	T	0.0	0
2025-01-02	44	35	39.5	3.6	25	0	T	0.0	0
2025-01-03	40	32	36.0	0.3	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-04	34	29	31.5	-4.0	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-05	34	28	31.0	-4.4	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-06	32	23	27.5	-7.7	37	0	0.04	0.5	0
2025-01-07	34	20	27.0	-8.0	38	0	0.00	0.0	T
2025-01-08	31	24	27.5	-7.4	37	0	0.00	0.0	T
2025-01-09	34	24	29.0	-5.7	36	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-10	41	28	34.5	-0.1	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-11	36	29	32.5	-2.0	32	0	0.02	M	T
2025-01-12	43	31	37.0	2.6	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-13	44	34	39.0	4.8	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-14	36	26	31.0	-3.2	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-15	33	24	28.5	-5.6	36	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-16	31	25	28.0	-6.0	37	0	T	T	0
2025-01-17	44	27	35.5	1.6	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-18	46	36	41.0	7.1	24	0	0.11	0.0	0
2025-01-19	41	26	33.5	-0.3	31	0	0.18	3.6	M
2025-01-20	28	18	23.0	-10.8	42	0	T	T	2
2025-01-21	20	13	16.5	-17.3	48	0	0.00	0.0	2
2025-01-22	21	13	17.0	-16.8	48	0	0.00	0.0	1
2025-01-23	30	18	24.0	-9.8	41	0	0.00	0.0	1
2025-01-24	34	25	29.5	-4.3	35	0	0.00	0.0	1
2025-01-25	33	23	28.0	-5.8	37	0	0.00	0.0	1
2025-01-26	44	32	38.0	4.2	27	0	0.00	0.0	T
2025-01-27	42	33	37.5	3.6	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-28	42	33	37.5	3.6	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-29	53	32	42.5	8.5	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-30	38	26	32.0	-2.1	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-31	50	38	44.0	9.9	21	0	0.16	0.0	0

 

Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - February 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1174	827	-	-	810	0	2.61	7.7	-
Average	41.9	29.5	35.7	-0.6	-	-	-	-	0.3
Normal	42.7	29.9	36.3	-	804	0	2.93	9.8
2025-02-01	50	22	36.0	1.8	29	0	T	0.0	0
2025-02-02	32	18	25.0	-9.3	40	0	0.10	1.2	0
2025-02-03	49	31	40.0	5.6	25	0	T	T	T
2025-02-04	50	31	40.5	5.9	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-05	37	27	32.0	-2.7	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-06	40	29	34.5	-0.3	30	0	0.32	0.4	T
2025-02-07	45	30	37.5	2.6	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-08	36	27	31.5	-3.6	33	0	0.58	3.5	0
2025-02-09	36	31	33.5	-1.7	31	0	0.05	0.1	2
2025-02-10	38	31	34.5	-0.9	30	0	0.00	0.0	2
2025-02-11	36	27	31.5	-4.1	33	0	0.12	1.0	1
2025-02-12	36	31	33.5	-2.2	31	0	0.10	0.5	2
2025-02-13	47	34	40.5	4.6	24	0	0.18	T	T
2025-02-14	37	30	33.5	-2.6	31	0	0.00	0.0	T
2025-02-15	36	28	32.0	-4.3	33	0	0.37	0.6	0
2025-02-16	49	34	41.5	5.1	23	0	0.79	0.0	0
2025-02-17	38	27	32.5	-4.1	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-18	28	20	24.0	-12.8	41	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-19	31	18	24.5	-12.5	40	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-20	30	19	24.5	-12.7	40	0	T	0.4	0
2025-02-21	35	22	28.5	-8.9	36	0	0.00	0.0	T
2025-02-22	41	22	31.5	-6.1	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-23	47	35	41.0	3.2	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-24	49	34	41.5	3.5	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-25	57	43	50.0	11.8	15	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-26	57	43	50.0	11.6	15	0	T	0.0	0
2025-02-27	55	40	47.5	8.8	17	0	T	0.0	0
2025-02-28	52	43	47.5	8.6	17	0	T	0.0	0

The default setting is no missing days, so it treats any missing date as ending the streak. You have to allow some number of missing days to avoid that.

[forkyfork]

6 hours ago, Sundog said:

You should let the people at Pivotal Weather know about honest color schemes. Temperatures in the 60s there look like a heatwave. 

i didn't post a pivotal weather map though