October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[wdrag]

 

From early yesterday partially reiterated: No chatter yet on the impact of the block the rest of the month?  While the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month.  That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms.  

Not sure if anyone saw the ECMWF OP CF-squall line 45-60 MPH gusts, cycle to cycle since 06z/15, different target areas from NJ/e PA/srn NYS early Monday.  Could be a few power outages/branches down. 

No thread for us but bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains.  

Latest 06z/16 EC cycle has the surface low driving the CF across the area predawn Monday then redeveloping the deepening sec low s of LI late Mon? Unsure whether this can happen. 

I'll be curious as to the drought outlook changes eastern NJ/se NYS/CT when it posts this morning. 

[Brian5671]

CMC and GFS show a cold front passage Monday while the Euro is much more wound up with a storm

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the highs beating guidance yesterday JFK moved into the top 5 again for 70° days.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
216 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025

...................................

...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 15 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         70    153 PM  82    1975  65      5       60       
  MINIMUM         53   1159 PM  37    1999  50      3       46       
  AVERAGE         62                        58      4       53     

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	167	0
2	2015	160	0
3	2021	158	0
-	2010	158	0
4	1985	157	0
5	2025	155	77
-	2007	155	0

Lucky 70 for JFK. Even LGA maxed at 69. Must have been the northerly wind.

[Snowlover11]

 low of 38F this morning.

[dmillz25]

45 for the low here

[SACRUS]

48  / 35 off of 39 low.  Sunny and cool low 60s for most, some mid 60s in the warmer spots.   Cool night - some frosts inland possibly.  Nice stretch Fri - Sun with this weekend looking dry and nice with the warmest on Sundaty low - mid 70s in the warm spots.  Front Monday and back and forth bias near / slightly above normal through the 23rd.  Trough into the northeast next weekend 10/25.  Beyond there overall near normal.

 

[SACRUS]

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1958)
NYC: 87 (1897)
LGA: 82 (1958)
JFK: 79 (2008)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1944)
NYC: 34 (1876)
LGA: 39 (2009)
LGA: 39 (2006)

Historical:

1781: A storm of "unknown character" struck Virginia. The Earl of Cornwallis, at Yorktown, was trapped by the French Fleet and the Patriot Army, under the command of George Washington. The Earl decided to flee to the north to Gloucester Point under the cover of darkness. A "furious storm" doomed the plan to failure, as seas ran high and every boat was "swamped". He sent forward his flag of truce and surrendered, thus ending the battle (Chapman). (Ref. Storm of 1781)

1880: Very early blizzard in Dakotas ends and precedes severe winter. Earliest blizzard in Minnesota. Struck western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas especially hard. Over a foot of snow in western counties. Railroads were blocked. Damage done to Great Lakes shipping. Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft formed in the Canby area lasted until the next spring when flooding occurred across the Minnesota River Valley. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1913 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco soared to 101 degrees to equal their record for October. (The Weather Channel)

1937 - An unlikely winter-like storm produced as much as ten inches of snow in Minnesota and Iowa.

1944: The 1944 Cuba – Florida hurricane, also known as the Pinar del Rio Hurricane, struck western Cuba on this day as a Category 4. This storm killed an estimated 300 people in Cuba and nine in Florida. This hurricane is currently the 7th costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricane, with an estimated $46.9 billion (2015 USD) in damages.


1962: Severe weather across northwestern Oklahoma resulted in a 5-inch hailstone collected in Woodward County. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1987 - Ten cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Augusta GA marked their third straight morning of record cold. A cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to parts of the central U.S. Lightning struck a bull and six cows under a tree near Battiest OK. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Late afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado north of Nappanee IN which caused half a million dollars damage. Six cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 100 degrees at Red Bluff CA was the latest such reading of record for so late in the autumn season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988: An F2 tornado carved a 6 mile long, east-northeast path through a mostly rural area of north-central Indiana. The extremely slow-moving tornado touched down 1.5 miles north of Nappanee, just 300 yards north of a high school, and shortly after that moved through a subdivision where 11 homes sustained damage.

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the foothills of Colorado. Up to three inches was reported around Denver. Echo Lake was buried under nineteen inches of snow. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the eastern and south central U.S. Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 84 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1998: One of the costliest hail storms to ever hit metro Denver caused an estimated $87.8 million dollars in damage to homes, buildings and vehicles. The hailstorm, rare for so late in the season began over portions of Arvada, Wheat Ridge and northeast Denver where mostly pea sized hail accumulated up to a depth of 6 inches near I-70. Snowplows had to be called out to clear several streets and many accidents were reported. The storm intensified as it moved to the east into the Denver and Aurora areas. Hail up to two inches in diameter pelted the Denver metro area and one inch diameter hail in northern Aurora. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1990: Temperature reached 90 °F for 136th day in Tampa, FL. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1992: 60+ middle school football players were on the Dueitt Middle School football field (Spring, TX) when lightning hit during a light drizzle. 34 students/coach taken to a hospital for observation/treatment, fortunately; no one was killed. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1999: Hurricane Irene moved across the Florida Keys producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high waves. A gust 102 mph was reported in Big Pine Key.

 

2007: A blinding sandstorm in the high desert north of Los Angeles wreaks havoc with local traffic causing a highway pileup involving dozens of vehicles. Two people die, and 16 are injured as a result of the storm, which reportedly raised dust to 1000 foot high.

 

2015: A well-defined waterspout was visible from Marquette, Michigan.

[steve392]

45 degrees this morning feels great. 

Driving my kid to school, 13 years old logic,no hoodie or sweatshirt just t-shirt with 45 degree temps but wears either when it's 80 plus. Smh lol

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Lucky 70 for JFK. Even LGA maxed at 69. Must have been the northerly wind.

Yeah, JFK and several spots in NJ and Eastern PA made it to 70° on the offshore flow. Looks like areas in NJ will be favored for more 70s this weekend. But probably too much onshore flow at places like JFK.

 

Data for October 15, 2025 through October 15, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

DE	WILMINGTON AIRPORT	WBAN	73
DE	GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT	WBAN	72
PA	PHILADELPHIA INTL AP	WBAN	72
NJ	ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	72
NJ	MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	71
NJ	SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	70
NJ	SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	70

 

Data for October 15, 2025 through October 15, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	72
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	70
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	70

 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

 low of 38F this morning.

Same for me.

[wdrag]

I could benefit from greater u understanding on what went into this lack of reclassifcation downward in NNJ.  The yellow stripes e-w across NNJ? 

Did River flows influence, or local drought reports?

Maybe someone can post the radar analysis or whatever went into the evaluation to support the drought monitor.

This will help me curb my enthusiasm for expectation.  Thank you. 

 

[mgerb]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I could benefit from greater u understanding on what went into this lack of reclassifcation downward in NNJ.  The yellow stripes e-w across NNJ? 

Did River flows influence, or local drought reports?

Maybe someone can post the radar analysis or whatever went into the evaluation to support the drought monitor.

This will help me curb my enthusiasm for expectation.  Thank you. 

 

I can't reveal too much, as the final decisions lie with the national author. But from the state climate office side, we suggested mostly status quo (no change) this week, aside from removing some lingering D0 in eastern Ocean (warranted with the heavy rain from the nor'eater). They also eased up a bit in Bergen and eastern Passaic, which is fine too given the 1.50"-2.00" rainfall there, as we were on the fence about recommending improvement there or waiting. 

As for the areas of degradation in the western parts of the state, it's really just slight expansions of existing D0 (in Burlington) and D2 (in the far northwest), which we didn't explicitly suggest, but have no problem with given the continued dry conditions and relatively low totals from the weekend storm. Very minor changes overall. 

If you haven't yet, I'd recommend checking out the comparison slider, as it nicely shows the specific category changes from last week to this week. You can zoom into NJ:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ComparisonSlider.aspx

 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, mgerb said:

I can't reveal too much, as the final decisions lie with the national author. But from the state climate office side, we suggested mostly status quo (no change) this week, aside from removing some lingering D0 in eastern Ocean (warranted with the heavy rain from the nor'eater). They also eased up a bit in Bergen and eastern Passaic, which is fine too given the 1.50"-2.00" rainfall there, as we were on the fence about recommending improvement there or waiting. 

As for the areas of degradation in the western parts of the state, it's really just slight expansions of existing D0 (in Burlington) and D2 (in the far northwest), which we didn't explicitly suggest, but have no problem with given the continued dry conditions and relatively low totals from the weekend storm. Very minor changes overall. 

If you haven't yet, I'd recommend checking out the comparison slider, as it nicely shows the specific category changes from last week to this week. You can zoom into NJ:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ComparisonSlider.aspx

 

Hi Matt, I appreciate your honesty!  Therefore the thanks for your post.  

 

I am now a little more concerned about process. Seems to me this is human interpretation of objective data sets, of which I'm still unclear and can't find that listed in the drought monitor.  I like objectivity supplemented with observed impact truths.

River flows,  reports from reservoirs, farmers, and evaporattion rates. I think there is a brand new  graphic available somewhere on evapotranspiration.  Any link?

Also concerned about overall transparency but that ties with everything in life.

Drought here in nw NJ seems to be relatively superficial... when considering acquire recharge. I'm Unskilled at this but not sure what this attached map suggests today.

I think those on this forum very much appreciate your shares

 

 

[wdrag]

Als, ifs anyone is checking... 06z EPS vs GEFS starkly different on digging short wave trough Sun-Monday.  Is the EPS far too amped?  Think this may be worth keeping an eye on.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

With the highs beating guidance yesterday JFK moved into the top 5 again for 70° days.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
216 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025

...................................

...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 15 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         70    153 PM  82    1975  65      5       60       
  MINIMUM         53   1159 PM  37    1999  50      3       46       
  AVERAGE         62                        58      4       53     

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec 70° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	167	0
2	2015	160	0
3	2021	158	0
-	2010	158	0
4	1985	157	0
5	2025	155	77
-	2007	155	0

This is nice, I consider 70 to be mild.

 

Here are my guidelines for the temperatures I like to see throughout the year :

January 40s/20s

February 40s/20s

March 50s/30s

April 60s/40s

May 70s/50s

June 80s/60s

July 90s/70s

August 90s/70s

September 80s/60s

October 70s/50s

November 60s/40s

December 50s/30s

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, JFK and several spots in NJ and Eastern PA made it to 70° on the offshore flow. Looks like areas in NJ will be favored for more 70s this weekend. But probably too much onshore flow at places like JFK.

 

Data for October 15, 2025 through October 15, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

DE	WILMINGTON AIRPORT	WBAN	73
DE	GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT	WBAN	72
PA	PHILADELPHIA INTL AP	WBAN	72
NJ	ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	72
NJ	MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	71
NJ	SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	70
NJ	SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	70

 

Data for October 15, 2025 through October 15, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	72
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	70
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	70

 

JFK can hit 70 at least on Sunday, could be mid 70s in NJ

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

Lucky 70 for JFK. Even LGA maxed at 69. Must have been the northerly wind.

Would have been 100 in June or July lol

 

[mgerb]

30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi Matt, I appreciate your honesty!  Therefore the thanks for your post.  

 

I am now a little more concerned about process. Seems to me this is human interpretation of objective data sets, of which I'm still unclear and can't find that listed in the drought monitor.  I like objectivity supplemented with observed impact truths.

River flows,  reports from reservoirs, farmers, and evaporattion rates. I think there is a brand new  graphic available somewhere on evapotranspiration.  Any link?

Also concerned about overall transparency but that ties with everything in life.

Drought here in nw NJ seems to be relatively superficial... when considering acquire recharge. I'm Unskilled at this but not sure what this attached map suggests today.

I think those on this forum very much appreciate your shares

 

There's definitely a subjective aspect to it, and one author may interpret the slew of objective data sets slightly differently than another. Aside from precip, ground water, river flow, a range of drought indices, and reports from the ground are all used to compile the product. 

In terms of how it's made, you might check out this short video (first below) and then a much longer and presumably much more detailed video below that (second). I think they'll be instructive in explaining how it all comes together. 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

With the highs beating guidance yesterday JFK moved into the top 5 again for 70° days.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
216 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025

...................................

...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 15 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         70    153 PM  82    1975  65      5       60       
  MINIMUM         53   1159 PM  37    1999  50      3       46       
  AVERAGE         62                        58      4       53     

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec 70° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	167	0
2	2015	160	0
3	2021	158	0
-	2010	158	0
4	1985	157	0
5	2025	155	77
-	2007	155	0

There's one day that's listed with a high of 72° (10/2) that actually had a high of 66°. I'm not sure how the 72° got into the climate record. Every other NYC area location ((BDR: 63, ISP: 67, LGA: 66, NYC: 66, EWR:68, HPN: 64)) + the hourly data shows < 70° for 10/2. During late September/early October, there were recurring issues at the JFK station.

 

[lee59]

58 the high here today.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow morning will again be very chilly. Lows in New York City will be in the middle 40s. 30s will be common outside the City with colder spots falling into the 20s. 

It will turn milder during the weekend. Partly to mostly sunny conditions should prevail.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +3.54 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.697 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow morning will again be very chilly. Lows in New York City will be in the middle 40s. 30s will be common outside the City with colder spots falling into the 20s. 

It will turn milder during the weekend. Partly to mostly sunny conditions should prevail.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +3.54 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.697 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

How much colder is this October than last year's October Don?

I like year to year comparisons.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

58 the high here today.

too cold, my heat is on

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How much colder is this October than last year's October Don?

I like year to year comparisons.

 

It was much warmer last October than is likely this time around. Last October had a mean temperature of 60.9° in New York City.

[Wannabehippie]

On 10/15/2025 at 3:43 PM, mgerb said:

Some of us definitely do. 

The fall colors on trees are muted this year due to this drought. We definitely can use the rain, but it will be too late to make those changing colors pop. 
Looking at the forecast models it doesn't look like much rain is in store for NJ in the next 5-7 days. One system will move to the west, in the Ohio River valley, up in to Canada. Maybe some showers overnight Sun in to Monday.

I  had hoped the system this past weekend would help change the pattern, but I guess not.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was much warmer last October than is likely this time around. Last October had a mean temperature of 60.9° in New York City.

I wonder if that has any implications for the winter.

I was getting used to not having any high temperatures in the 50s in October

High temperatures in the 50s are a trigger for me to turn on my heating.