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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


wdrag
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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we used to have the old Alden Difax machine back at college in the mid 80s. Sometimes we would come into the weather lab after the weekend and all the maps would be stuck inside. Even when the machine was working correctly, the model graphics weren’t very high detail. 

yep, remember the "stuck" issue well.  That auto roller on the back of the machine was only good enough to roll 10-12 hours of maps after that it was a guaranteed jam.  How many times you cut yourself replacing that sharp metal helix?

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Dont think this will miss but will wait til the 06z/8 cycles are in tomorrow morning to start a thread for 1-4" of rain NJ/LI and less north with G 50-60 MPH coast Monday.  

ECAI I think will go back solid hit by tomorrow morning. If it does not, then will leave this as a general 0.1-1.5" rain and no thread. 

I think a clue to further N is the 12z/7 GEFS showing the closed 5H low starting in the Great Lakes Sat night and then it may become the dominant driver instead of further S.  Something I'm watching but not yet completely sold.

I'm prepared for periods of rain here in nw NJ 18z Sun-18z Tue...something like that.

gotta run and cut the summer cone flowers.

 

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

There is some data going back to 1779-1780  when we had over 95” here on the CT Shoreline. . The cold and snow that winter set the benchmark for coldest winter of the last several hundred years. So the 1995-1996 winter was only the snowiest in modern times.

https://www.nps.gov/morr/learn/historyculture/hard-winter-news.htm

William Smith (a loyalist living in New York City) records in his diary that on January 16, 1780, people were walking across the frozen Hudson River from New York to Paulus Hook (today Jersey City) New Jersey.
A Hessian soldier, Johann Dohla recorded in his diary on January 30, "The North (Hudson) and East rivers are frozen solid. The ice was checked and found to be eighteen feet thick. All ships were frozen in, and it was possible to cross over the North (Hudson) River on foot, riding or driving, without fear." Later, (on February 22) Dohla wrote "Today the North River ice began to break, after having been frozen for nearly seven weeks." A German officer, Major Baurmeister wrote, "The severe winter covered the North River with ice early in January; even where the current of the river is swiftest, the ice was eleven feet thick, in spire of the fact that it is 1800 yards wide between Fort George (today Battery Park, New York City) and Powles Hook."
February 1780 seems to have been even colder: On February 10, William Smith mentions in his diary that a few days earlier a "24 Pounder" (that is, a cannon that fired a solid ball weighing 24 pounds - the entire cannon weighed three tons) was rolled across the Hudson River to Paulus Hook (today part of Jersey City, New Jersey.) Smith goes on to say that even a heavy load as this it made no impression on the ice. On the night of February 10th, Smith heard that four to five hundred British cavalry rode their horses across the river.
 

MANY ACCOUNTS MENTION UNPRECEDENTED CONDITIONS

A teacher in Yale College (New Haven, Connecticut) recorded approximately twenty days with snowfall, and a total of 95 inches of snow that winter. People walked across the Sound from Stanford, Connecticut to Long Island. Others walked from Rhode Island mainland to Block Island. Chesapeake Bay and the York River in Virginia froze over for the first time since Europeans settled there. Many people mentioned in letters that they could not remember a winter as bad.

Wow is this the famous Laki winter that George Washington wrote about when stationed in Morristown NJ and experienced over one dozen blizzards and the ink in his pen froze? Was the -16 temperature in Manhattan recorded in January 1780?

 

 

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Water conservation measures announced in some localities as the reservoir levels get down to 70%. This has been a top 10 driest fall to fall period across the region. Nantucket has been one of the driest spots with the coastal storms getting suppressed to our south.
 

https://www.wfsb.com/2025/10/03/bristol-mayor-announces-water-restrictions-amid-drought/?outputType=amp

IMG_4861.thumb.jpeg.b593622143c07a7437af722fb7b57a4e.jpeg
 

 

Even drier than the 1965-66 period Chris??

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The taste of late summer that has prevailed for the past four days will be coming to an abrupt end.

A strong cold front will move across the region tonight into tomorrow. The frontal passage will likely bring some heavy showers or thundershowers. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.00" of rain in the region. A shot of much cooler air will follow. Central Park will likely see its first lows in the 40s this season.

Temperatures will moderate during Friday through Sunday.

A potential nor'easter will need to be watched for late in the weekend to early next week. This storm could bring some showers and gusty rain to parts of the region, with the highest rainfall amounts and strongest gusts likely for the Jersey Shore and parts of Long Island. Coastal flooding is possible. Suppression south and east of the area still remains a plausible scenario.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +8.31 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.007 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.3° (1.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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