Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Superstorm]

I liked seeing this posted yesterday in the Mid Atlantic region thread.

Good for Lakes Region. Could see some significant LES.

Not good climo period for us. We will probably be on warm side after that period 3 to 4 week period, as climo improves.


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[ChescoWx]

Some sun this morning, but showers are possible almost anytime today and tonight. We could see between 0.15" to 0.25" of rain by late tonight. Today will be our last mild day with temperatures a couple of degrees above normal with low 60's in the valleys. A strong cold front moves through late tonight and we fall back to near 40 degrees by morning. Our high temperature tomorrow will occur at midnight tonight with temperatures only rising a couple of degrees tomorrow morning before falling to freezing by tomorrow evening. Tuesday will likely see the higher spots remaining in the 30's for high temperatures. We will moderate a bit by Wednesday but temperatures for the rest of the week will remain well below normal for mid-November with highs struggling to escape the 40's through the week.

[Itstrainingtime]

Very heavy thunderstorm in progress.

[Itstrainingtime]

0.54" from that storm.

[canderson]

Sun is poking out in Manhattan. Hope the rain here is just light ….

[Mount Joy Snowman]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

0.54" from that storm.

Looks like I’m up near three quarters of an inch already. Was not expecting nearly this much. 

[canderson]

Chicago is about to get hammered by a huge winter storM. Holy crap. Feet of snow possible.  

[Itstrainingtime]

54 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Looks like I’m up near three quarters of an inch already. Was not expecting nearly this much. 

Thoughts on Grunkemeyer? 

I'm pleased with his progress over 3 starts, especially given who he's faced.

[Superstorm]

Chicago is about to get hammered by a huge winter storM. Holy crap. Feet of snow possible.  

Is it lake enhanced?


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[Blizzard of 93]

26 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Is it lake enhanced?


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Lake event, their Warning is impressive.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1121 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

ILZ103>105-108-100330-
/O.CON.KLOT.WS.W.0001.251110T0300Z-251110T1800Z/
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Eastern Will-
Including the cities of Oak Lawn, Park Forest, Beecher, Orland
Park, Cicero, Northbrook, Schaumburg, Crete, Lemont, Palatine,
Evanston, Oak Park, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Des Plaines, La
Grange, Peotone, and Chicago
1121 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerous to impossible travel conditions due to intense
  lake effect snow expected. Snow rates in excess of 3 inches per
  hour, localized total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches, and
  northerly wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are expected.

* WHERE...Central Cook, Eastern Will, Northern Cook, and Southern
  Cook Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Snow rates in excess of 3 inches per hour will cripple
  travel, including during the Monday morning commute. Strong
  northerly wind gusts in excess of 30 mph will lead to greatly
  reduced visibility, especially near the Lake Michigan shoreline.
  Periods of thundersnow will occur, as well.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow is often very localized,
  with conditions varying from safe to dangerous across just a few
  miles. Snow totals in the Winter Storm Warning area may vary
  considerably from one location to the next.

 

[Voyager]

Forget what I said about the Tempest station being a good unit. We had a good heavy rain here today, and every station around me recorded at least a half inch including the USGS gauge. The local readings ranged from .46" to .82" with one a block away from me reading .66"

My station recorded only .21"

Even the wind seems wonky. I'm learning that my location is just not going to see many gusts over 20 due to the nearby homes and mountains. Not sure how I got that 38 mph reading a couple months ago, but I don't think it actually happened.

I think I'm going to go back to a traditional station, hopefully by the end of the year.

[Yardstickgozinya]

On 11/6/2025 at 7:37 AM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes MU mentioned how they and LNS experienced this. Talked about how compressional warming can often be maximized right ahead of a cold front. 

Thanks, Snowman.  I missed your reply the other day. I didn't want to sound to crazy with  the numbers, but I believe it was actually more than eight degrees in a few minutes. I was working right at the east foot of South Mountain  in Dillsburg. I'm familiar with mixing, compressional warming, and forcing but what I experienced at the foot of south mountain was exceptionally extreme from what i've experienced outdoors in my lifetime and i've experienced a lot. I wonder how many times i've experienced compressional warming compared to other surface warming dynamics ? Based on what I experienced the other day, I would have to say not much. It definitely feels different.I'll recognize it next time, if that's what it was. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Fantasy digital snow tracking season has begun thanks to the 12z Euro.

[canderson]

We missed being out in all the rain in the city thankfully! 

[pawatch]

13 hours ago, Voyager said:

Forget what I said about the Tempest station being a good unit. We had a good heavy rain here today, and every station around me recorded at least a half inch including the USGS gauge. The local readings ranged from .46" to .82" with one a block away from me reading .66"

My station recorded only .21"

Even the wind seems wonky. I'm learning that my location is just not going to see many gusts over 20 due to the nearby homes and mountains. Not sure how I got that 38 mph reading a couple months ago, but I don't think it actually happened.

I think I'm going to go back to a traditional station, hopefully by the end of the year.

I would set up a manual rain gauge, just to see how they compare. Rainfall totals a mile away can vary.

currently 43 degrees.

[ChescoWx]

Most of the area received some beneficial rains with between 0.30" and 0.50" falling since last night. Here in East Nantmeal we have already recorded our high for today at midnight at 53.1 degrees. Temperatures have fallen off to the low 40's across the area and will only rise a degree or two this morning before we see temperatures slowly fall this afternoon. We should reach the 30's by late afternoon and fall below freezing early this evening. Tomorrow will be the coldest day with highs not too far from 40 degrees. We should see well below normal temperatures continuing for the rest of the week with highs mainly in the upper 40's to low 50's.

[Itstrainingtime]

Rainfall total yesterday was 0.64". Last week at this time it seemed destined we would be in the 60s, perhaps 70s later this week. No more. 

[Itstrainingtime]

21 hours ago, canderson said:

Chicago is about to get hammered by a huge winter storM. Holy crap. Feet of snow possible.  

As of 7am this morning, O'Hare has picked up 1.6" of snow. Higher totals closer to the shoreline, but the big totals didn't materialize in and around the city proper. Evanston reported 3.5" this morning. Parts of Indiana have seen 6-12" with Touchdown Jesus covered in 6". 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 41 here with .74" of rainfall.  Looks like my first hard freeze hits tonight.  @Itstrainingtime I'll respond with some thoughts on Grunk later.

5 hours ago, pawatch said:

I would set up a manual rain gauge, just to see how they compare. Rainfall totals a mile away can vary.

currently 43 degrees.

I second this, nothing beats the official cylinder gauge.  I have both manual and the automated gauges and my Accurite station consistently under-measures rainfall by ~5-15%.

[pawatch]

Some snow flurries