Tropical Storm Imelda

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
 
...IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS 
THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

[wthrmn654]

Idk if anyone can confirm/ verify but hasn't the icon been the most consistent with this nearly going up the florida coast before going east for many runs?  I may have my models mixed up but I can't remember

[NoCORH4L]

2 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

There are many examples of larger tropical cyclones absorbing a nearby smaller tropical cyclone. Pretty fundamental dynamic process

So we'll have a cat 10, cool.

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Idk if anyone can confirm/ verify but hasn't the icon been the most consistent with this nearly going up the florida coast before going east for many runs?  I may have my models mixed up but I can't remember

I‘m not sure exactly what you’re asking. But I do know that both the Icon and the UKMET on every single run going back to when they first had this on their runs 5+ days ago had this after moving it N to NNW hook sharply right OTS. They were absolutely stellar and were far better than any other non-JMA models with their essentially perfect records. I have the JMA as a clear 3rd as only its 12Z 9/23 run hit NC. All others hooked sharply right and OTS although two of them (12Z 9/25 and 12Z 9/26) combined with Humberto to make one storm. 
 All of this is still on Tropical Tidbits for those who are interested. They have runs back a full week. Check them out before it’s too late!

Edit: The 18Z 9/24 Icon, which goes out only 120 hours, didn’t go out far enough to be able to tell for sure. It had Imelda further N than most other runs and she was getting pretty close to FL when the run ended. But she was moving very slowly and could have easily hooked right had the run gone out further as that’s about the time the right hook would have started.

[amc]

On 9/28/2025 at 2:01 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

Feel VERY confident this has trended to just a rip current/beach erosion threat. Bermuda still needs to watch 

AI models picked up on this way before the conventional models…. I think its time to start giving way more stock to the ai models 

[WxWatcher007]

The wind field is still not particularly organized or strong, but the winds are gradually coming up as the satellite presentation continues to improve. 

The center is now under a developing CDO, with persistent deep convection we should see the pace of organization pick up over the course of the day. The pressure has continued to fall, with the latest center dropsonde showing a possible pressure below 990mb now. 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 13:23Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Imelda
Storm Number: 09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 10

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 29th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 26.6N 77.2W
Location: 108 statute miles (173 km) to the N (5°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080 ( About )
 

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level	Geo. Height	Air Temp.	Dew Point	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
1000mb	-93m (-305 ft)	This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
990mb (29.24 inHg)	Surface (Sea Level)	26.0°C (78.8°F)	25.5°C (78°F)	135° (from the SE)	20 knots (23 mph)
925mb	596m (1,955 ft)	23.8°C (74.8°F)	23.2°C (74°F)	145° (from the SE)	15 knots (17 mph)
850mb	1,337m (4,386 ft)	21.6°C (70.9°F)	20.3°C (69°F)	No Wind Report Available For This Level

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:13Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

[WxWatcher007]

Also, this is an extraordinary satellite image. About as close as you can get. Both in coastal impacts and two TCs interacting with one another. 

[MegaMike]

Just now, amc said:

AI models picked up on this way before the conventional models…. I think its time to start giving way more stock to the ai models 

Absolutely not. Maybe it performed well for this one event, but that doesn't mean it's better than traditional NWP. You really need to conduct a thorough evaluation at the surface and aloft (for forcing variables) to make such conclusions.

As an example, it's possible something can be right for the wrong reason. You wouldn't know unless you evaluated it... So, if AI did well with forcing, wrt NWP, over a duration of 1 year, then you can entertain the idea. This is just imo, but we're years, if not decades, away from this. We likely need to significantly improve data assimilation for this to occur.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, MegaMike said:

Absolutely not. Maybe it performed well for this one event, but that doesn't mean it's better than traditional NWP. You really need to conduct a thorough evaluation at the surface and aloft (for forcing variables) to make such conclusions.

As an example, it's possible something can be right for the wrong reason. You wouldn't know unless you evaluated it... So, if AI did well with forcing, wrt NWP, over a duration of 1 year, then you can entertain the idea. This is just imo, but we're years, if not decades, away from this. We likely need to significantly improve data assimilation for this to occur.

Agree with this. I will say that some of the AI models earned a little more respect with me this season, but to your point--it's going to take time to truly get a sense of how well it analyzes critical forecasting factors over the long term. Every forecast is different and every TC is a distinct entity. 

And at any rate...models are merely tools. So us laypeople should beware relying on any one as gospel in any situation. (not saying that anyone here is necessarily doing that)

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Honestly this storm had organized at a quick pace overnight with pressure falls and a the center under the CDO. Think pace of intensification quickens through the day 

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Honestly this storm had organized at a quick pace overnight with pressure falls and a the center under the CDO. Think pace of intensification quickens through the day 

The ragged eyewall does look like it collapsed per recon, but that's not really a surprise given IR last night. I do agree that the presentation has really improved and the pressure falls have been impressive. 

[WEATHER53]

10 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

But everything is out to sea. 

Quit whining like a child 

[NorthHillsWx]

Up to 60 mph at 11 am and now forecast to reach cat 2

[NorthHillsWx]

Wow, Melbourne radar shows a very well defined system with a partial eyewall. Continued strengthening is expected based on that look

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Up to 60 mph at 11 am and now forecast to reach cat 2

Nice visible loop.....on her way to Cat 2.  I'd venture to say Imelda reaches Hurricane status by 5pm based on radar and satellite over the past few hours.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop90.html

[NorthHillsWx]

Last thing I’ll say right now- track guidance is now tightly clustered on a solution that gives Bermuda direct impacts if not a rare landfall. This is not a “fish” storm and may actually be chaseable in Bermuda 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Nice visible loop.....on her way to Cat 2.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop90.html

Was not expecting it to look so symmetrical today. Very impressive loop and very clear it is getting its act together quickly 

[wthrmn654]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

I‘m not sure exactly what you’re asking. But I do know that both the Icon and the UKMET on every single run going back to when they first had this on their runs 5+ days ago had this after moving it N to NNW hook sharply right OTS. They were absolutely stellar and were far better than any other non-JMA models with their essentially perfect records. I have the JMA as a clear 3rd as only its 12Z 9/23 run hit NC. All others hooked sharply right and OTS although two of them (12Z 9/25 and 12Z 9/26) combined with Humberto to make one storm. 
 All of this is still on Tropical Tidbits for those who are interested. They have runs back a full week. Check them out before it’s too late!

Edit: The 18Z 9/24 Icon, which goes out only 120 hours, didn’t go out far enough to be able to tell for sure. It had Imelda further N than most other runs and she was getting pretty close to FL when the run ended. But she was moving very slowly and could have easily hooked right had the run gone out further as that’s about the time the right hook would have started.

Yeah you basically answered what I was saying lol

[WeatherFox]

In Orlando it’s coming down moderately in a far outer band cell!

[WxWatcher007]

New blow up of convection right over the center

[NorthHillsWx]

55 kts at 5 pm

[Floydbuster]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Probably on the cusp of hurricane status now. Recon in there now. 

[JakkelWx]

dews dropped from being 78-80 for the past 3 days to an astounding 74 this evening. KAMX radar shows a band of storms over the everglades near I-75 west. Clouds were moving fast today.

[hawkeye_wx]

Imelda has a great outflow channel to the north, but it appears to be fighting dry air.  Convection within the core is looking a bit ragged this evening.

[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Imelda has a great outflow channel to the north, but it appears to be fighting dry air.  Convection within the core is looking a bit ragged this evening.

Yeah not nearly as crisp a satellite presentation as even a few hours ago. FL winds continue to increase however. 

[Coach McGuirk]

I'm sure the models will be right but I hope they're wrong. 

[blueheels2]

Rain is hanging around this am in the Triangle.  I’m glad we needed it, hope it soaks all day.

[baldereagle]

9 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I'm sure the models will be right but I hope they're wrong. 

Because danger to and destruction of others’ property and lives gives you a thrill. Got it, and “whining like a child” when it stays ots. Sheesh. Barry GBP would be proud of you.

Right, Barry? Barry?

[NorthHillsWx]

60 kts at 5 am but dry air has really slowed intensification. Models are pretty aggressive over the next 48 hours and some peak this near major. It likely won’t be a “pretty” storm but Bermuda looks to be in the bullseye of a strong hurricane. I really wouldn’t be shocked if this makes a run at cat 3 near the island. A lot of upper level dynamics at play including a very strong sting jet progged across guidance as the storm approaches the island. Very interested to watch the evolution