Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

0Z GEFS: 14 of 30 members with SE US landfall with one of those 14 a hurricane

Very interesting stuff. Long way to go…

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Very interesting stuff. Long way to go…

0Z EPS: 29 of 50 hit SE US with ~10-11 as hurricanes

Night night!

[WxWatcher007]

Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had.

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had.

Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls

[PackGrad05]

After looking at all the data and the runs, even though they are inconsistent, I still feel the most likely outcome is a slow approach to the SE coast and either making it inland or staying just off-shore, but then slowing down/stallings and dumping a lot of rain...
The big story is going to be the rain/flooding.

[Eskimo Joe]

Man 06z GFS op tries to bury 94L across interior South Carolina. Looks like a potent 850 and 700 mb  jet just pouring subtropical Atlantic moisture into the foot hills.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Man 06z GFS op tries to bury 94L across interior South Carolina. Looks like a potent 850 and 700 mb  jet just pouring subtropical Atlantic moisture into the foot hills.

Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point 

[WxWatcher007]

48 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls

It looks like they follow the op with substantial spread still in landfall point.

[olafminesaw]

I was looking for an Analog yesterday and couldn't find any TS/hurricane that originated near the Bahamas and took a left hook into the Bahamas. Model consensus vs climo, should be a fun showdown.

 

[GaWx]

 Hopefully Humberto overachieving increases the chance that 94L will be more influenced by it in a way that helps the SE US.

[olafminesaw]

Still more rainfall after this across NC

[WxWatcher007]

Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now. 

[NVAwx]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now. 

Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in? 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, NVAwx said:

Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in? 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
 

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi
 

There are other sites out there but I use these when recon is in the air. Expect consistent upper air and low level recon now.