September Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies for September.  Looks like more perfect fall weather, although we need rain.

[Weather Will]

Pretty sparse late week rain  chances on the WB 12Z globals.

[Jebman]

Look I apologize for posting this stuff in the modeling long range thread. But I need a real meteorologist like Millville Wx, high risk, WxUSAF or wxmeddler to explain this nomenclature to me. My fields are software engineering and AI engineering, not these apparently statistical terms.

This paragraph is from today's AFD for AUS.

The rainy and cloudy weather will support cooler temperatures
beginning this weekend. With a thermal trough in our area during
this period, showers and storms could be more effective at producing
rain-cooled air. The approaching front may also contribute some
cooler air depending how far south it gets, though given the time of
year, most of the cooler temperatures will probably be rain and
cloud driven. This introduces significant uncertainty in
temperatures as illustrated by 7 to 10 degree interquartile ranges
in NBM QMD maximum temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Given the
large uncertainties, the current temperature forecast is aligned
with the NBM, featuring highs in the 80s to low 90s Sunday and
Monday before gradually warming back up into midweek after the
active weather pattern passes.

 

What I would like a meteorologist to do for me here is to please explain to me in 4th grade terms, what interquartile means. This stuff is WAY above my paygrade as well as centuries above my IQ level too. lmao

 

Thanks in advance, I am sorry for posting this in the long range thread BUT I need a real Met to try and explain this term to me.

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

Look I apologize for posting this stuff in the modeling long range thread. But I need a real meteorologist like Millville Wx, high risk or wxmeddler to explain this nomenclature to me. My fields are software engineering and AI engineering, not these apparently statistical terms.

This paragraph is from today's AFD for AUS.

The rainy and cloudy weather will support cooler temperatures
beginning this weekend. With a thermal trough in our area during
this period, showers and storms could be more effective at producing
rain-cooled air. The approaching front may also contribute some
cooler air depending how far south it gets, though given the time of
year, most of the cooler temperatures will probably be rain and
cloud driven. This introduces significant uncertainty in
temperatures as illustrated by 7 to 10 degree interquartile ranges
in NBM QMD maximum temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Given the
large uncertainties, the current temperature forecast is aligned
with the NBM, featuring highs in the 80s to low 90s Sunday and
Monday before gradually warming back up into midweek after the
active weather pattern passes.

 

What I would like a meteorologist to do for me here is to please explain to me in 4th grade terms, what interquartile means. This stuff is WAY above my paygrade as well as centuries above my IQ level too. lmao

 

Thanks in advance, I am sorry for posting this in the long range thread BUT I need a real Met to try and explain this term to me.

I just a stoner but I think they are saying that if it rains it will be cool. If there's no rain and sunshine that temps will be hot due to the front itself not bringing in actual cooler air. It sounds like they still aren't sure what will happen so stay tuned. Go on a Jebwalk if it rains. The temps should be cooler if it rains.