E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion

[simbasad2]

Is it too early to start looking at December? Unfortunately it seems like strong east coast ridging will kick off meteorological winter for us. Still far away, but most long range ensemble guidance supports temps reaching the 50s-70s. Thankfully short lived though as a really cold air mass will advect eastward by around December 5th. EPS Weeklies support a weak SER around this time, so maybe some overunning events next month?

 

 

[Nodriveslow]

12 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I'm in a "townhouse" so basically a "row" ("attached" on both sides).  It got down to about 64 and once the heat was on, within a few days, and after the cold dry air after fropa, the humidity plunged to 22% (perfect for the expected static electricity zaps and nosebleeds).    Humidifiers were finally set up and i got the downstairs up to ~36% (with the upstairs ~40%, where the rain helped).  That 35% - 40% (max) range is good for me.  That central air heat can be a bear.

That's pretty impressive. I live in a twin and I'm exposed to the West/Northwest, so get blasted by the cold winds. Small house so doesn't take long to hear up. Normally nerd humidifier on in Jan and Feb.

 

[ChescoWx]

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

[ChescoWx]

Some additional details on White Christmas history and probabilities across Chester and SE Berks Counties including the storm dates and snow amounts on the ground both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

[ChescoWx]

After a frosty start in spots, we should see sunny skies with temperatures not too far from normal for both today and tomorrow. Rain chances increase by Tuesday afternoon with some spots seeing the potential for up to 0.50" of rain before it ends on Tuesday night. Wednesday looks like our one warmer day before we turn back to well below normal temperatures for the Thanksgiving Holiday and weekend.

[Albedoman]

  Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus  snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs  but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area..  Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event  and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle.

The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck.  If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast.  The lows  south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time  as it  appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too.  The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us  this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

I basically want a 2-4 in  long duration three day rain event asap  to get the trees feet wet before the ground freezes and to get runoff back into the soon to be dry  streams. Trout fishing and landscaping  this spring will be severely hampered too if you do not get some significant rains in the next 2-3 weeks.  When LCA declares a drought watch folks,its pretty serious. I have USGS gauging stations in my backyard for the Little Lehigh and if this stream dries up, the businesses  will be greatly affected too throughout PA