September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[SACRUS]

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Newark has reached 80F (26.7C) for the 100th time this year. That is tied with 2017 and 2019 for the 21st highest number of days. 50% of Newark's years with 100 or more such days have occurred since 2000. 

 

If you eliminate duplicate years it's 16th place and 18 behind 2015.

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 80 °F
2015	1	118
2024	2	117
2021	3	116
1994	4	114
2016	5	113
1993	5	113
1991	5	113
2011	6	111
2010	6	111
2023	7	110
2022	8	109
1959	9	108
2007	10	106
2005	11	105
2002	12	104
1990	13	103
1957	13	103
1983	14	102
1906	14	102
1989	15	101
1986	15	101
1949	15	101
1908	15	101
2019	16	100
2017	16	100

[SACRUS]

 

80 / 63 here 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

If you eliminate duplicate years it's 16th place and 18 behind 2015.

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 80 °F
2015	1	118
2024	2	117
2021	3	116
1994	4	114
2016	5	113
1993	5	113
1991	5	113
2011	6	111
2010	6	111
2023	7	110
2022	8	109
1959	9	108
2007	10	106
2005	11	105
2002	12	104
1990	13	103
1957	13	103
1983	14	102
1906	14	102
1989	15	101
1986	15	101
1949	15	101
1908	15	101
2019	16	100
2017	16	100

I didn't use dense ranking. But yes, it would be tied for 16th most using dense ranking.

 

[Big Jims Videos]

Sitting and sweating outside in the yard under a pure blue sky. Water temps still in the 70s. Endless summer rolls on.  

☀️☀️

[cleetussnow]

22 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's also why mass migrations happen, especially if it's connected to famine and starvation.

 

I was talking about like, the middle of the Sahara desert, the south pole, top of the Himalayas, bottom of the atlantic.  Wasnt a climate remark.  
 

most famines in the last 100 years are caused by wars and other types of political unrest such as happened in China after Mao took over.  Not commonly due to weather, not anymore. Famines are less common now than the last say, the last 200,000 years of human history thanks to technology.  

[donsutherland1]

Islip has now reached 80° for the sixth time during the second half of September. That ties 1970 for the fourth highest total. The three consecutive days is the first such streak after September 15th since October 6-8, 2007.

[donsutherland1]

Newark has now reached 86°. The last time Newark had at least five days with highs of 86° or above during the second half of September was 2019.

In addition, Islip has reached 82°. That breaks the daily record of 80° from 2015. Newark has reached 88°, which breaks the daily mark of 87° from 2014.

[SACRUS]

 

86 / 61 

[Sundog]

Major torch today. Made it to just under 85 degrees, now a "cooler" 81. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

It was hot at the farm out east today. Summer hot. 

[winterwarlock]

87 today

 

6th day in a row 80 and above

[Sundog]

20 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It was hot at the farm out east today. Summer hot. 

I did apple picking off the trees one October out east like 10 or 12 years ago and there was a miserable heat and totally killed the Halloween mood. 

[nycwinter]

worst september in along time for being very uncomfortable with the warm temps i am looking forward to cool down this upcoming week can finally wear the hoodie again..

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine and deep blue skies, parts of the region saw near record and record warm temperatures. High temperatures included:

Hartford: 85°
Islip: 84° (old record: 80°, 2015)
New York City-Central Park: 83°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 85° (old record: 84°, 2014)
Newark: 89° (old record: 87°, 2014)
White Plains: 85° (old record: 84°, 2014)

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be a bit cooler on account of increased cloud cover. Nevertheless, above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of September. 

The start of October could see the arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season, but temperatures will likely quickly moderate, rising to above normal levels.

The guidance and historical experience following a second half September mean temperature of 70° or above suggest that October will be warmer than normal in the New York City area. The two most recent Octobers with a cooler than normal first half like 2025 and a second half with a mean temperature of 70° or above were: 2017 (October mean temperature: 64.1° and October 2019: October mean temperature 59.9°).

Imelda will approach the South Carolina coast but then turn out to sea avoiding U.S. landfall on account of Fujiwhara interaction with the stronger Humberto. Even without landfall, Imelda will bring some periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and pounding surf to coastal areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -14.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.108 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I did apple picking off the trees one October out east like 10 or 12 years ago and there was a miserable heat and totally killed the Halloween mood. 

October looks dry and way above normal

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

October looks dry and way above normal

I've noticed that in the long range (day 10+) the EPA always show above normal almost everywhere with minimal negative anomalies anywhere. 

But when we get closer you see more pronounced positive and negative anomalies in the northern hemisphere. 

I wish tidbits had more old runs because the effect is more pronounced. But here is the run from the 21st for October 6th:

[Sundog]

And here is today's run for the same date:

[Sundog]

My point is we don't know as we get closer if any negative anomalies will pop up. You can't say the whole month is going to be a torch from now. 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

If you eliminate duplicate years it's 16th place and 18 behind 2015.

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 80 °F
2015	1	118
2024	2	117
2021	3	116
1994	4	114
2016	5	113
1993	5	113
1991	5	113
2011	6	111
2010	6	111
2023	7	110
2022	8	109
1959	9	108
2007	10	106
2005	11	105
2002	12	104
1990	13	103
1957	13	103
1983	14	102
1906	14	102
1989	15	101
1986	15	101
1949	15	101
1908	15	101
2019	16	100
2017	16	100

Hot summers on that list include 1993, 1991, 2011, 2010, 2002, 1983, 1949

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, Sundog said:

My point is we don't know as we get closer if any negative anomalies will pop up. You can't say the whole month is going to be a torch from now. 

we can't reasonably forecast temperatures more than 7 days out.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine and deep blue skies, parts of the region saw near record and record warm temperatures. Preliminary high temperatures included:

Hartford: 85°
Islip: 84° (old record: 80°, 2015)
New York City-Central Park: 83°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 84° (tied record from 2014)
Newark: 89° (old record: 87°, 2014)
White Plains: 84° (tied record for 2014)

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be a bit cooler on account of increased cloud cover. Nevertheless, above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of September. 

The start of October could see the arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season, but temperatures will likely quickly moderate, rising to above normal levels.

The guidance and historical experience following a second half September mean temperature of 70° or above suggest that October will be warmer than normal in the New York City area. The two most recent Octobers with a cooler than normal first half like 2025 and a second half with a mean temperature of 70° or above were: 2017 (October mean temperature: 64.1° and October 2019: October mean temperature 59.9°).

Imelda will approach the South Carolina coast but then turn out to sea avoiding U.S. landfall on account of Fujiwhara interaction with the stronger Humberto. Even without landfall, Imelda will bring some periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and pounding surf to coastal areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -14.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.108 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

JFK also above 80, Don? I recorded 82 here at 2:30 pm

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It was hot at the farm out east today. Summer hot. 

saw lots of butterflies and dragonflies I love this weather with the clear deep blue skies

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

I was talking about like, the middle of the Sahara desert, the south pole, top of the Himalayas, bottom of the atlantic.  Wasnt a climate remark.  
 

most famines in the last 100 years are caused by wars and other types of political unrest such as happened in China after Mao took over.  Not commonly due to weather, not anymore. Famines are less common now than the last say, the last 200,000 years of human history thanks to technology.  

Sure, but some of the mass migrations we're seeing now are linked to failed harvests (like the one in Central America.)  There's a multiyear drought going on down there.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Sitting and sweating outside in the yard under a pure blue sky. Water temps still in the 70s. Endless summer rolls on.  

☀️☀️

the pure blue sky and no haze was the best part of today

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK also above 80, Don? I recorded 82 here at 2:30 pm

79 at JFK.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

79 at JFK.

That's sad, there wasn't any kind of breeze here today. Must have been right at the airport.

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 85F here. Currently 72.

[psv88]

83 today. Hot on the golf course

[uofmiami]

81.7 in Syosset & 81.2 in Muttontown.  Baseball field was scorching today.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs

 

TEB: 91
EWR: 89
New Brnswck: 87
LGA: 85
TTN: 85
PHL: 86
ISP: 84
BLM: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 82
JFK: 79