donsutherland1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 1983 was one amazing summer (and September was part of that summer.) What did JFK hit, Don? I made it to 85 here. 86 (record was 90 in 1983). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 83 the high here today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 83.0 in Muttontown & 82.3 in Syosset for the high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Today was an unseasonably warm late September day. Preliminary highs included: Bridgeport: 84° Islip: 85° (tied record from 1983) New Haven: 84° New York Cty-Central Park: 84° New York City-JFK Airport: 86° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 83° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 84° Westhampton: 83° (tied record set in 1967 and tied in 2024) White Plains: 82° Cooler air will return overnight for the weekend. Temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 70s tomorrow through Monday. It will then turn warmer on Tuesday before another cool front crosses the region on Wednesday. The advancing front could trigger some showers or thundershowers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -4.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.972 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 85 today, same as Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 86 (record was 90 in 1983). 30C !!! The highest temperature for the rest of the year, Don ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was an unseasonably warm late September day. Preliminary highs included: Bridgeport: 84° Islip: 85° (tied record from 1983) New Haven: 84° New York Cty-Central Park: 84° New York City-JFK Airport: 86° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 83° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 84° Westhampton: 83° (tied record set in 1967 and tied in 2024) White Plains: 82° Cooler air will return overnight for the weekend. Temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 70s tomorrow through Monday. It will then turn warmer on Tuesday before another cool front crosses the region on Wednesday. The advancing front could trigger some showers or thundershowers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -4.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.972 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Nice to see JFK equal EWR, this is what I call true heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 30C !!! The highest temperature for the rest of the year, Don ??? I don't want to see anything above 20C until next April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, Sundog said: I don't want to see anything above 20C until next April thats too cold, 25C is okay I dont want to start my heating until November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 30C !!! The highest temperature for the rest of the year, Don ??? Probably. However, one can't completely rule out a later such temperature, even as it doesn't show up on any of the guidance right now. Just over 1-in-6 years in JFK's period of record saw 86° or above temperatures on September 20th or later. The most recent was 2019 with the epic 95° high on October 2. The last week of the month has some potential with the forecast drop in the PNA, though an even sharper drop would increase prospects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Made it to 85 today, it's probably not going to be this warm again until next year so savor it!! Fine with me. I'm missing the 40s and a cool drive to work already at 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago 37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Probably. However, one can't completely rule out a later such temperature, even as it doesn't show up on any of the guidance right now. Just over 1-in-6 years in JFK's period of record saw 86° or above temperatures on September 20th or later. The most recent was 2019 with the epic 95° high on October 2. The last week of the month has some potential with the forecast drop in the PNA, though an even sharper drop would increase prospects. Last year had widespread 80s in November, but I don't think it ever reached 85 did it Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 24 minutes ago Share Posted 24 minutes ago 10 hours ago, Sundog said: The snow season was also longer, the first few decades of snow records from NYC show about half of Novembers having accumulating snowfall, some of them with major numbers. To be fair though we were on the tail end of ther Little Ice Age and so the background state was just overall naturally cooler even without global warming. I don't think the Little Ice Age would be much of a factor. Perhaps @donsutherland1 could weigh in? But looking at proxy-based global temperature reconstructions, it would appear globally temperatures varied no more than about .5C over the preceding 2,000 years until the mid 19th century. And that temperatures by about the 1930s were decidedly warmer than at any time in the preceding 2,000 years. People often bandy around terms they don't understand. Even during the Holocene Thermal Optimum, mid-latitude winters were likely harsher than during the 19th century, as the earth would have been tilted at a greater angle away from the sun during wintertime. The summer warming is just a considerably larger impact, because that's when almost all of the solar radiation falls in the high latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Last year had widespread 80s in November, but I don't think it ever reached 85 did it Don? Newark has the warmest temperature last November (83°). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 14 minutes ago Share Posted 14 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't think the Little Ice Age would be much of a factor. Perhaps @donsutherland1 could weigh in? But looking at proxy-based global temperature reconstructions, it would appear globally temperatures varied no more than about .5C over the preceding 2,000 years until the mid 19th century. And that temperatures by about the 1930s were decidedly warmer than at any time in the preceding 2,000 years. People often bandy around terms they don't understand. Even during the Holocene Thermal Optimum, mid-latitude winters were likely harsher than during the 19th century, as the earth would have been tilted at a greater angle away from the sun during wintertime. The summer warming is just a considerably larger impact, because that's when almost all of the solar radiation falls in the high latitude. I understand the Little Ice Age quite fine. The northern hemisphere was affected more than the southern, so you can't just go by global averages. In addition to that, regionally the 1800s were quite cold in North America. And with a name like the Climate Changer you should know even a couple of C deviation is massive for a long term average, which was what was occuring during that time period. All I was saying is that since snow records begin in 1869 in New York, those first few decades were weening off the cooler overall regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't think the Little Ice Age would be much of a factor. Perhaps @donsutherland1 could weigh in? But looking at proxy-based global temperature reconstructions, it would appear globally temperatures varied no more than about .5C over the preceding 2,000 years until the mid 19th century. And that temperatures by about the 1930s were decidedly warmer than at any time in the preceding 2,000 years. People often bandy around terms they don't understand. Even during the Holocene Thermal Optimum, mid-latitude winters were likely harsher than during the 19th century, as the earth would have been tilted at a greater angle away from the sun during wintertime. The summer warming is just a considerably larger impact, because that's when almost all of the solar radiation falls in the high latitude. Volcanic eruptions might been a factor in some of those winters, but it doesn't explain the entire dataset of the 1800s being colder than what started happening during the 1930s either. The most notable volcanic episode was Laki in 1782-83, the winter that followed its eruption was likely the coldest and snowiest winter either North America or Europe has ever had. Washington kept quite the diary of that winter from Morristown NJ. I wonder what the temperature had to be to make the ink in his pen freeze? The lowest documented temperature from that winter that we have is -16 F from NYC just a degree colder than the -15 F that was recorded in February 1934. The 30s were a period of extremes.... Even more notable than the extreme cold was the over one dozen blizzards reported by Washington in our area in that historic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 6 minutes ago, Sundog said: I understand the Little Ice Age quite fine. The northern hemisphere was affected more than the southern, so you can't just go by global averages. In addition to that, regionally the 1800s were quite cold in North America. And with a name like the Climate Changer you should know even a couple of C deviation is massive for a long term average, which was what was occuring during that time period. All I was saying is that since snow records begin in 1869 in New York, those first few decades were weening off the cooler overall regime. Laki (1782), Tambora (1815) and Krakatoa (1886) also had something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago 18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't think the Little Ice Age would be much of a factor. Perhaps @donsutherland1 could weigh in? But looking at proxy-based global temperature reconstructions, it would appear globally temperatures varied no more than about .5C over the preceding 2,000 years until the mid 19th century. And that temperatures by about the 1930s were decidedly warmer than at any time in the preceding 2,000 years. People often bandy around terms they don't understand. Even during the Holocene Thermal Optimum, mid-latitude winters were likely harsher than during the 19th century, as the earth would have been tilted at a greater angle away from the sun during wintertime. The summer warming is just a considerably larger impact, because that's when almost all of the solar radiation falls in the high latitude. what causes changes in the tilt? is this a cyclic change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 4 minutes ago Share Posted 4 minutes ago 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: what causes changes in the tilt? is this a cyclic change? Milankovitch Cycles, small cyclical changes in precession, obliquity and eccentricity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 minute ago Share Posted 1 minute ago 22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't think the Little Ice Age would be much of a factor. Perhaps @donsutherland1 could weigh in? But looking at proxy-based global temperature reconstructions, it would appear globally temperatures varied no more than about .5C over the preceding 2,000 years until the mid 19th century. And that temperatures by about the 1930s were decidedly warmer than at any time in the preceding 2,000 years. People often bandy around terms they don't understand. Even during the Holocene Thermal Optimum, mid-latitude winters were likely harsher than during the 19th century, as the earth would have been tilted at a greater angle away from the sun during wintertime. The summer warming is just a considerably larger impact, because that's when almost all of the solar radiation falls in the high latitude. Snow seasons were longer in the past in the colder climate. The numbers were not wildly different, though. Below are the numbers for Central Park: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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