Prismshine Productions Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 Looks like a mild/warm and dry start to the month Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 We welcome September with open arms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 HHH we salute you 1 final time, until Christmas 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Looks like we warm back up after this cooler stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Wednesday at 12:42 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 12:42 PM Ouch... All 3 ens means only average to about an inch of rain over the next two weeksSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 PM On 8/26/2025 at 9:34 AM, CT Valley Snowman said: Looks like we warm back up after this cooler stretch of weather. Just a reminder for the general audience: The correct interpretation of this chart above is 'there's a 60 to 70% chance for warmer than normal' Note, +.01 is warmer than normal. Frankly, if I'm asked ( which I am not ... understood ha ), after looking over the charts and indices therefrom I'm not seeing anything wholly convincing for warmth to be honest. Can it change? Obviously yes. We have to give a lot of latitude to the indicators and modeling trends at this time of year. As is typically the case, the flow behavior has become nebular in structure; it's not really easy to assess where the major forcing structures will be located in space and time, as model to model variation places that stuff inconsistently. In fact, that uncertainty is even more so than normal from what I am seeing. There's polar jet that keeps trying to orient into a winter like pattern up across Canada, replete with repeating model runs drilling diving jet through Ontario and killing any hope for warmth here through ...D10 or 11... Meanwhile, there's this weaker meandering S jet with nondescript wave signature rippling across 35 N... These two jet regions are challenged to find one another and sync up, as they should be at this time of year... It's basically a couple of hoses flopping around in the guidance. Once every 7 or 8 model cycles, they phase - like the 00z Euro with an autumn trough through the Lakes at 252 hours. Or the previous 18z GFS from yesterday, having a WAR like end of run... Neither of these are likely sustainable indicators though. They'll either disappear or morph so much the implications change. It looks likes like the first 10 days to two weeks of the month will be crushingly uneventful with exceptionally loud silence. haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted Wednesday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:00 PM 2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Ouch... All 3 ens means only average to about an inch of rain over the next two weeks Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Makes me wonder if CC is beginning to give us distinct wet and dry seasons, like most of the world. I think we're somewhat unusual in that historically we don't really have a whole lot of difference between our wettest and driest months (30% or so variation). We'd be joining the ranks of the West Coast...all locations within the annual ITCZ oscillation (tropics)...Mediterranean basin...South Asia...the list goes on. Maybe then we'd adopt more awareness and proactivity about water management and conservation, like West Coast folks who have had to factor water use into their planning for so many things in life. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Wednesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:39 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted Saturday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:43 PM So, we're just about to finish CoCgust. Now on to CoCtember and then CoCtober. Low dews and sunshine for all. Don't ask for rain, it ain't coming. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:46 PM No but warmth and some dews are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Sunday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:27 AM Septembrrrrrrrr 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted Sunday at 01:20 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:20 AM 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: No but warmth and some dews are Hopefully we get some, but we'll see. Love those nice warm Septembers and Octobers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Sunday at 02:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:20 PM Euro and AI are a torch toward mid month…EPS is AN, but a lot more tempered. GFS/GEFS continue the chamber weather. Either way, precip looks BN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 PM 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro and AI are a torch toward mid month…EPS is AN, but a lot more tempered. GFS/GEFS continue the chamber weather. Either way, precip looks BN. Wet weather Friday ?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Sunday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:33 PM 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro and AI are a torch toward mid month…EPS is AN, but a lot more tempered. GFS/GEFS continue the chamber weather. Either way, precip looks BN. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Sunday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:44 PM 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wet weather Friday ?? Maybe a little bit, but it still looks BN for the first half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 10:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:19 PM Pretty big signal of a WAN pattern setting up after the 10th for rest of month. Just when we don’t want it . 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago I had to laugh at how different the euro op was from the EPS and AI at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Happy meteorological Autumn 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago What the hell it's not going to be bright and sunny today? Hope this isn't a trend. Been spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Let’s get some rime ice on the summits. Whats the phrase? Shots across the bow? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago I think we’ve had 5 bow shots already. lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think we’ve had 5 bow shots already. lol I kept thinking it was the first sub-freezing 850s in New England for some reason. But yeah, trough parade continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Not after the 10th. Aifs and EPS in lock step on big warmth / ridging 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not after the 10th. Aifs and EPS in lock step on big warmth / ridging I don’t know if you’ve looked recently, it’s not super impressive. There’s some bagginess to the heights along the east coast into SE. Might be more over the top? Look at the 5-day 850mb temps showing it too… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not after the 10th. Aifs and EPS in lock step on big warmth / ridging EPS actually has slightly below 850mb temps on 5-day mean from 11th to 15th. That SE bagginess in the heights must be spoiling it? AIFS also has it along east coast. Sept 14th… warmth struggles to make it east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: EPS actually has slightly below 850mb temps on 5-day mean from 11th to 15th. That SE bagginess in the heights must be spoiling it? AIFS also has it along east coast. Sept 14th… warmth struggles to make it east. That might be wetness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Decent severe look for saturday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That might be wetness Yeah probably maritime taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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