O'Brother Septorcher

[Prismshine Productions]

Looks like a mild/warm and dry start to the month

 

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[WxWatcher007]

We welcome September with open arms. 

[NoCORH4L]

HHH we salute you 1 final time, until Christmas

[CT Valley Snowman]

Looks like we warm back up after this cooler stretch of weather.    

[Prismshine Productions]

Ouch... All 3 ens means only average to about an inch of rain over the next two weeks

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[Typhoon Tip]

On 8/26/2025 at 9:34 AM, CT Valley Snowman said:

Looks like we warm back up after this cooler stretch of weather.    

Just a reminder for the general audience:   The correct interpretation of this chart above is 'there's a 60 to 70% chance for warmer than normal'

Note, +.01 is warmer than normal.

Frankly, if I'm asked ( which I am not ... understood ha ), after looking over the charts and indices therefrom I'm not seeing anything wholly convincing for warmth to be honest.  Can it change? Obviously yes.  

We have to give a lot of latitude to the indicators and modeling trends at this time of year. As is typically the case, the flow behavior has become nebular in structure; it's not really easy to assess where the major forcing structures will be located in space and time, as model to model variation places that stuff inconsistently.   In fact, that uncertainty is even more so than normal from what I am seeing.  There's polar jet that keeps trying to orient into a winter like pattern up across Canada, replete with repeating model runs drilling diving jet through Ontario and killing any hope for warmth here through ...D10 or 11...  Meanwhile, there's this weaker meandering S jet with nondescript wave signature rippling across 35 N...

These two jet regions are challenged to find one another and sync up, as they should be at this time of year... It's basically a couple of hoses flopping around in the guidance.  Once every 7 or 8 model cycles, they phase - like the 00z Euro with an autumn trough through the Lakes at 252 hours.  Or the previous 18z GFS from yesterday, having a WAR like end of run...  Neither of these are likely sustainable indicators though. They'll either disappear or morph so much the implications change. 

It looks likes like the first 10 days to two weeks of the month will be crushingly uneventful with exceptionally loud silence.  haha

[MJOatleast7]

2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Ouch... All 3 ens means only average to about an inch of rain over the next two weeks

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Makes me wonder if CC is beginning to give us distinct wet and dry seasons, like most of the world. I think we're somewhat unusual in that historically we don't really have a whole lot of difference between our wettest and driest months (30% or so variation). We'd be joining the ranks of the West Coast...all locations within the annual ITCZ oscillation (tropics)...Mediterranean basin...South Asia...the list goes on.

Maybe then we'd adopt more awareness and proactivity about water management and conservation, like West Coast folks who have had to factor water use into their planning for so many things in life.

[kdxken]