Tracking the tropics - 2025

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not surprising but quite a shift.

Once we start to get something a bit more organized we should get a better idea. The "center" has been jumping like crazy over the last day, particularly since last evening. Once concern I have though is potential for RI if this

1) gets its act together quickly 

and

2) If it tracks within the zone of higher OHC

Doesn't mean anything for us but I would be watching extremely closely anywhere from the northeast Florida coast up to coastal NC. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Once we start to get something a bit more organized we should get a better idea. The "center" has been jumping like crazy over the last day, particularly since last evening. Once concern I have though is potential for RI if this

1) gets its act together quickly 

and

2) If it tracks within the zone of higher OHC

Doesn't mean anything for us but I would be watching extremely closely anywhere from the northeast Florida coast up to coastal NC. 

 

There will be a window for significant intensification but idk how long it’ll be open for. You have near record warmth near the Bahamas and critically this should establish a nice outflow channel with a ULAC over the region and cutoff to the west. It’ll be in near ideal conditions.

However, nearing the coast southerly shear could impart dry air and the immediate coastline has cooler SSTs.

Folks should remember that major EC strikes are rare. Since 1990 it’s only been Andrew ‘92, Fran ‘96, and Jeanne ‘04. 

[Nova737]

I know I should be thankful that there is no longer a direct threat to us from whatever 94L becomes, but boy was I hoping for it. :/

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Nova737 said:

I know I should be thankful that there is no longer a direct threat to us from whatever 94L becomes, but boy was I hoping for it. :/

This is more long range speculation, but I do wonder if there’s a chance of remnants or something if the vorticity gets pushed back OTS after the original landfall. 00z euro and 12z gfs hint at it, but obviously that’s weenie range. 

[Sn0waddict]

This is going to be a really tricky forecast for the SE. Hurricanes can do some real funky things when they are as close to each other as these models depict. The difference between the GFS and CMC shows this.

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Effing gyre ftl.

Only in New England.

[kdxken]

 

[Hoth]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Effing gyre ftl.

Mmmm, gyros. 

[ineedsnow]

18z GEFS has some interesting Humberto members

[ineedsnow]

escape route seems to be shutting a bit.. and some members are forced back west as the high builds in

[ineedsnow]

we watch!

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

we watch!

 

[ineedsnow]

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Its coming 

[MJO812]

[WxWatcher007]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pig ridge stretching from International Falls to Iceland?  

[Diggiebot]

This pattern reeks of surprises and changes to come in the models. So many moving parts but the big high over the top gives opportunities 

[WxWatcher007]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is more long range speculation, but I do wonder if there’s a chance of remnants or something if the vorticity gets pushed back OTS after the original landfall. 00z euro and 12z gfs hint at it, but obviously that’s weenie range. 

Showed up again at 18z and especially at 00z. Again, fantasy range and speculative but maybe worth watching as the ridge breaks down and a trough scoops up whatever remnants there are. Humberto is and was always gone. 

[Chrisrotary12]

I was 10 months old when Bob came through. Will I go my whole life without a hurricane?

[Cyclone-68]

59 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I was 10 months old when Bob came through. Will I go my whole life without a hurricane?

I haven’t been in a legit storm since Gloria in ‘85. Bob was a complete non factor for me in interior eastern MA. Forty years without even a minimal storm is crazy.