weatherwiz Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not surprising but quite a shift. Once we start to get something a bit more organized we should get a better idea. The "center" has been jumping like crazy over the last day, particularly since last evening. Once concern I have though is potential for RI if this 1) gets its act together quickly and 2) If it tracks within the zone of higher OHC Doesn't mean anything for us but I would be watching extremely closely anywhere from the northeast Florida coast up to coastal NC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Once we start to get something a bit more organized we should get a better idea. The "center" has been jumping like crazy over the last day, particularly since last evening. Once concern I have though is potential for RI if this 1) gets its act together quickly and 2) If it tracks within the zone of higher OHC Doesn't mean anything for us but I would be watching extremely closely anywhere from the northeast Florida coast up to coastal NC. There will be a window for significant intensification but idk how long it’ll be open for. You have near record warmth near the Bahamas and critically this should establish a nice outflow channel with a ULAC over the region and cutoff to the west. It’ll be in near ideal conditions. However, nearing the coast southerly shear could impart dry air and the immediate coastline has cooler SSTs. Folks should remember that major EC strikes are rare. Since 1990 it’s only been Andrew ‘92, Fran ‘96, and Jeanne ‘04. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 I know I should be thankful that there is no longer a direct threat to us from whatever 94L becomes, but boy was I hoping for it. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 4 minutes ago, Nova737 said: I know I should be thankful that there is no longer a direct threat to us from whatever 94L becomes, but boy was I hoping for it. :/ This is more long range speculation, but I do wonder if there’s a chance of remnants or something if the vorticity gets pushed back OTS after the original landfall. 00z euro and 12z gfs hint at it, but obviously that’s weenie range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 This is going to be a really tricky forecast for the SE. Hurricanes can do some real funky things when they are as close to each other as these models depict. The difference between the GFS and CMC shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Effing gyre ftl. Only in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Effing gyre ftl. Mmmm, gyros. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 18z GEFS has some interesting Humberto members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 escape route seems to be shutting a bit.. and some members are forced back west as the high builds in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 we watch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: we watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pig ridge stretching from International Falls to Iceland? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 This pattern reeks of surprises and changes to come in the models. So many moving parts but the big high over the top gives opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is more long range speculation, but I do wonder if there’s a chance of remnants or something if the vorticity gets pushed back OTS after the original landfall. 00z euro and 12z gfs hint at it, but obviously that’s weenie range. Showed up again at 18z and especially at 00z. Again, fantasy range and speculative but maybe worth watching as the ridge breaks down and a trough scoops up whatever remnants there are. Humberto is and was always gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I was 10 months old when Bob came through. Will I go my whole life without a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 59 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I was 10 months old when Bob came through. Will I go my whole life without a hurricane? I haven’t been in a legit storm since Gloria in ‘85. Bob was a complete non factor for me in interior eastern MA. Forty years without even a minimal storm is crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 AI models are interesting for next weekend.. we watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 10 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: I haven’t been in a legit storm since Gloria in ‘85. Bob was a complete non factor for me in interior eastern MA. Forty years without even a minimal storm is crazy. Agreed except Irene took down a shitload of trees in my woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 18z Euro stays offshore heading SSE at hr 144 and starting to restrengthen.. might have a been a interesting run if it went out further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 nothing looks remotely interesting for anywhere near SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, Torch Tiger said: nothing looks remotely interesting for anywhere near SNE look at the 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I don't have it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z Euro stays offshore heading SSE at hr 144 and starting to restrengthen.. might have a been a interesting run if it went out further SSE is always a great direction for a LF in SNE. Heading in from Lake Ontario? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I don't have it yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Looks ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: that looks miserable, unless its like a D10 ordeal lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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