Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Torch Tiger]

should ramp up a bit through Oct. 1., though obv not going out on a limb saying that.  Pretty dead overall

[Torch Tiger]

18z gfs gone wild 

[FXWX]

23 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

18z gfs gone wild 

If "gone wild" means continuing the theme of almost no chance of tropical threat, then I agree!

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, FXWX said:

If "gone wild" means continuing the theme of almost no chance of tropical threat, then I agree!

For here?  pretty much never, so we are (well, I'm) not discussing that.

For the overall tropical Atlantic? Things will heat up a bit.  Though I'm skeptical outside of GOM at this point, until there is a legitimate contender. 

[Torch Tiger]

Also; the main tropical thread was cleaned up some, much more readable now.

[FXWX]

12 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

For here?  pretty much never, so we are (well, I'm) not discussing that.

For the overall tropical Atlantic? Things will heat up a bit.  Though I'm skeptical outside of GOM at this point, until there is a legitimate contender. 

Just kidding... I would be very surprised if we didn't see an uptick heading in late month period.  We've got no where to go but up? Lol

[Torch Tiger]

20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Just kidding... I would be very surprised if we didn't see an uptick heading in late month period.  We've got no where to go but up? Lol

Ha, dummy bet.  Yet watch there be a BARREN basin of nothing 9/15-10/5 , beyond these posts  

[CoastalWx]

Glad we cancelled 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not sure what the science is in this area of TC genesis ... or if there's any correlation at all, but this current high ranked invest out in the MDR has a very large initial mass field envelopment.   I'm wondering if that presages a system that is also spatially larger than normal?   It is evolving westerly return flow along the equatorial side, as evidence by cloud material/satellite, but these initial stages of that evolution extends to an unusually vast distance SW and S, some 500 km ...

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/12/2025 at 8:12 PM, FXWX said:

If "gone wild" means continuing the theme of almost no chance of tropical threat, then I agree!

There's a strangeness about the local hemisphere ( along 30 N from west of California, east to the Sargasso Sea/N. Atl Basin ) where the ridges are perforated by all these pinch mid/u/a/ lows and/or TUTTs and such. 

That circumstance hugely limits the likeliness than any MDR TC would firstly be able to survive the increased shear quotient in the means.  Also, another likeliness killer is that steering fields are not west-->east along extended distances because these punched holes in the ridge offer too many more opportunities that encourage capture into early retirements. 

(hint, I know why that overall circumstance is happening, but the CC explanation rubs those that swear by not denying while denying any evidence that connecs to CC ... CC is real so long as it doesn't interfere with the prospect of d-drip potency, huh )

[klw]

While things are slow, I have a basic general question- Can someone explain to me why there is no discussion of the storm off Virginia as tropical or at least subtropical.   The analysis, if I am reading it correctly, seems to have it as having a symmetric warm core.  What is missing to at have this given a designation?

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/25091606/11.html

 

Edit: I see it being discussed on the main Tropical thread.

[ineedsnow]

I'm not so sure 92L is going to make the curve as quick as some models show

[Torch Tiger]

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm not so sure 92L is going to make the curve as quick as some models show

Pray for Bermuda

[WxWatcher007]

It’s curtains for anything in the tropical Atlantic developing out there and impacting the continental U.S.

That ship has sailed. Best chance would now come from the homebrew regions…which as we saw last year can still produce monsters.

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s curtains for anything in the tropical Atlantic developing out there and impacting the continental U.S.

That ship has sailed. Best chance would now come from the homebrew regions…which as we saw last year can still produce monsters.

Yeah it's getting there.  I'd never say never until early Oct. is gone but most likely.

[cleetussnow]

I was at an event thing last week in LA.  An accuweather presenter (I think their head met) there said they were sticking to 13 to 18 named storms.  But 13 storms aren’t walking through that door, much less 18.