Hurricane Erin: 160 MPH - 915mb - W @ 16

[yoda]

Impressive 

https://x.com/Sekai_WX/status/1956739362927841415

 

[Windspeed]

scheiße...

[hawkeye_wx]

Erin appears to be strengthening a bit again.  The ring around the center has become more uniform and the cloud tops have cooled.

[Windspeed]

I dare say Erin has continued to deepen merely looking at radar and satellite imagery. We may be looking at a sub 910 hPa Atlantic hurricane now. This eyewall has taken on Irma and Dorian visuals for that location of the Atlantic Basin.

[jconsor]

Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. 

Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues.  My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri.  Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack.  Thank you guys!
https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development

[WxFreak11]

Thankfully we can enjoy the absolute magnificence of Erin with no land masses affected. This would have been catastrophic if it hit land.


.

[wthrmn654]

Insane that the euro shifted west, icon is west and euro AI is west... of course there not tropical models but still insane

[hawkeye_wx]

I sure would love to have a plane in there right now.  The CDO is looking vicious.

[WxWatcher007]

Still impacts out there. The Virgin Islands are under a flash flood warning and are getting lashed by rain bands.

[Windspeed]

RE: US impacts, despite the westward adjustments, they overall will not change. The 500 dm heights of the WATL ridge may be slightly underdone versus modeling, and Erin may also be pumping the SW periphery at present due to its extreme intensity; however, the mid-latitudinal troughs are still coming with a dome behind them that is on a collision course with Erin by 70°W. Erin will go with the southerly flow as Azores ridging drops SW, hooking it N, then NE and swiftly out into the North Atlantic. Interestingly, Erin's deep transition combined with strong rebuilding of the Bermuda extension of WATL heights late next week may spell trouble for what might be down the pipeline, however. But we'll save that for the main seasonal thread.

[wthrmn654]

The eye is getting smaller atleast looking at a loop of it just now

[wthrmn654]

[USCG RS]

35 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. 

Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues.  My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri.  Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack.  Thank you guys!
https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development

What you linked is a great write up.