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Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 945 mb - NNE @ 17

BarryStantonGBP
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Predict her peak  

69 members have voted

  1. 1. Predict Erin’s peak

  2. 2. Will Erin landfall?

    • Yes (CONUS)
      10
    • Yes (Canada)
      10
    • Yes (Bermuda including brush)
      5
    • Yes (The Caribbean)
      2
    • No
      38

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olafminesaw
olafminesaw
MonumentalNole
MonumentalNole

Is it possible to restrict Barry's posting to the banter thread.  Has contributed literally nothing this entire time and has been clogging up the thread with nonsense.

DDweatherman
DDweatherman

When tracking season gets heavy we’re gonna need a muzzle for Barry

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dseagull

dseagull

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

People were saying this might hit as a major hurricane, the models were saying otherwise and the models won. 

"People were saying?"

 

Who?  At what point?   This was a well forecasted storm in terms of track and intensity.   While there were absolutely the same usual folks that would pull outlier tracks and intensity guidance from certain models, this was fairly well projected from most suites.  The western end of the envelope verification was still within margin of error. 

I don’t believe anyone has called for even a remote chance of lower 48 landfall in over 96 hours.   This is a win-win scenario for enthusiasts up and down the eastern seaboard.   We are afforded an opportunity to study a unique system, with hopefully minimal damage.   Trust me, damage is still being incurred as i type this.  

 

 

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Coach McGuirk

Coach McGuirk

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dseagull said:

"People were saying?"

 

Who?  At what point?   This was a well forecasted storm in terms of track and intensity.   While there were absolutely the same usual folks that would pull outlier tracks and intensity guidance from certain models, this was fairly well projected from most suites.  The western end of the envelope verification was still within margin of error. 

I don’t believe anyone has called for even a remote chance of lower 48 landfall in over 96 hours.   This is a win-win scenario for enthusiasts up and down the eastern seaboard.   We are afforded an opportunity to study a unique system, with hopefully minimal damage.   Trust me, damage is still being incurred as i type this.  

 

 

Youtubers and Redditers. 

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Maxwell03

Maxwell03

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Not so underwhelming here on ocracoke

Sorry, not my intention to downplay. We set the bar pretty high for an offshore storm. I saw storm reports and clips from earlier but it seems like I'm not finding much in realtime right now. I guess morning will tell the tale. 

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Coach McGuirk

Coach McGuirk

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Summey said:

Was just thinking about Dorian. Everyone forgot about it past the Bahamas but Ocracoke was decimated.   Hope it isn’t anything like that.  Godspeed. 

Dorian got up to 185 MPH, Trump made his cone through Florida and it went out to sea.  LOL.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 The Outer Banks had sustained TS force winds overnight through 8AM despite the center being 200 miles to the SE/ESE/E!

1. From 2AM NHC advisory:
“A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.”

2. From 5AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at 
Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).”

3. From 8AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).”

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 For the record, the NHC/model consensus were significantly too far east as recently as 96 hours out. For example, this is from the 11PM Fri 8/15 NHC discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.5N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.2N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 20.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 21.7N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.9N 67.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 24.0N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 25.6N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 28.9N  70.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

Link: 

 
 Erin’s center ended up going 180 miles west of 70.5W as it went to 73.7W! So, later at its closest pass, the center ended up ~half the distance from the OBs vs what was forecasted early last weekend. Had this 70.5W furthest W forecast verified well, there wouldn’t have been TS conditions on the OBs.

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 945 mb - NNE @ 17

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