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Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 945 mb - NNE @ 17


Predict her peak  

69 members have voted

  1. 1. Predict Erin’s peak

  2. 2. Will Erin landfall?

    • Yes (CONUS)
    • Yes (Canada)
    • Yes (Bermuda including brush)
    • Yes (The Caribbean)
    • No


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16 minutes ago, NC US Geological Survice said:

What model do we think Surfline uses for its wave height forecasts? It has maintained a peak of 30-35 ft waves at the beach---starting 3am tomorrow---in Frisco, NC, between Hatteras Village and Buxton. 

They have their own proprietary model called Lotus. 30-35’ is impossible on the east coast anywhere less then a mile offshore. The bottom is just too gradual and shallow. Basically anything bigger then 15’ just breaks further and further out. 

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33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They have their own proprietary model called Lotus. 30-35’ is impossible on the east coast anywhere less then a mile offshore. The bottom is just too gradual and shallow. Basically anything bigger then 15’ just breaks further and further out. 

Correct

no 30 foot onshore breaking but I do think 6’ in general and possibly up to 8 

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It hasn’t strengthened at all based on that first pass. Winds probably still a bit generous. Think the opportunity to regain 3 intensity is rapidly fading.

It does appear to be kicking east some. Based on buoy reports between the storm and hatteras I’m not certain tropical storm force wind will make it to land. I think the models may have overdone the western extent of TS force winds somewhat really unimpressive buoy reports anywhere near the coast

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2 hours ago: 

Unfortunately, Hurricane Erin's storm surge was too much for NC12 tonight. We will be CLOSING NC12 from Oregon Inlet to Hatteras Village at 6:30 p.m. Conditions are too unsafe for people to be driving in. If you come across any flood waters, turn around, don't drown. #ncwx

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Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 
day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again tonight. 
Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to 
remain a hurricane into the weekend.
 
Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up 
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). During the past few 
hours, NOAA buoy 41002, located west of the center, has reported 
sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph   
(115 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).
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6 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

Water energy from afar was always the focus with this storm. As long as wave heights and storm tide forecasts broadly verify I don't think we could call this a bust. But it does feel underwhelming thus far lol. 

Not so underwhelming here on ocracoke

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17 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

Water energy from afar was always the focus with this storm. As long as wave heights and storm tide forecasts broadly verify I don't think we could call this a bust. But it does feel underwhelming thus far lol. 

People were saying this might hit as a major hurricane, the models were saying otherwise and the models won.  Now we're talking about wave heights.

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 945 mb - NNE @ 17

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