August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

On 8/7/2025 at 6:34 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Euro has all-time mid-August heat in the forecast. Just using Newark as a reference point, it gets places like Newark to 102°. That ties for the warmest ever recorded for this time of year. You can also see that Central to Northern Queens could reach 100°.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures August 11th through 20th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2005-08-20	102	0
-	1949-08-20	102	0
-	1944-08-20	102	0
2	2002-08-20	100	0

actually that's not true Chris, on August 7, 1918 Newark hit 105 and NYC hit 104

August 2001 gets honorable mention for hitting 103.

We have a long way to go to match the kinds of heatwaves we had back then.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/6/2025 at 8:38 PM, Sundog said:

Looks like the models have the bigger heat a hair inland as I see lots of southerly winds next week. 

It's also not that hot, some days are not hot at all. 

Good news for big heat haters. 

No those southerly winds are much worse, if we get a westerly wind we will get nice 100 degree dry heat, which is much better than 75 degree dew points

 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

actually that's not true Chris, on August 7, 1918 Newark hit 105 and NYC hit 104

August 2001 gets honorable mention for hitting 103.

We have a long way to go to match the kinds of heatwaves we had back then.

 

 

EWR Top August temps

 

1918: 105
2001: 105
1948: 103
1948: 102
1953: 102
1949: 102
1944: 102
2005: 102

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Officially the coolest start to August since 2013 which was a nice break from the wall to wall heat since late June. Hoping the 0z Euro has a clue about the more onshore flow and the 100° heat misses to the north in Maine. But the GFS still has more westerly flow and gets the warm spots to 101° on Wednesday. We are one of the parts of the country where a small shift to more southerly flow can make the difference between 90s and low 100s.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ August 1-7 Average Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-08-07	74.5	1
2024-08-07	81.7	0
2023-08-07	75.6	0
2022-08-07	83.1	0
2021-08-07	75.6	0
2020-08-07	78.7	0
2019-08-07	77.9	0
2018-08-07	82.2	0
2017-08-07	74.9	0
2016-08-07	75.8	0
2015-08-07	79.1	0
2014-08-07	75.9	0
2013-08-07	73.2	0
2012-08-07	80.4	0
2011-08-07	80.6	0
2010-08-07	79.9	0

The cool start was even more impressive in other parts of the area:

Bridgeport, Central Park, Newark: Coolest since 2013

JFK: Coolest since 1996

LGA: Coolest since 1985

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR Top August temps

 

1918: 105
2001: 105
1948: 103
1948: 102
1953: 102
1949: 102
1944: 102
2005: 102

Tony, how hot was the August 2001 heatwave at both EWR and NYC, did we come close to having three straight days of 100+? I know JFK never made it to 100 in 2001 but they hit 98 on one day and 99 the next day I think?

I was looking for your 8-7-2001 historic records post but could not find it.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR Top August temps

 

1918: 105
2001: 105
1948: 103
1948: 102
1953: 102
1949: 102
1944: 102
2005: 102

1944 had 3 100+ days at both NYC and EWR, 1948 had three in a row at both NYC and EWR and 2 in a row at JFK, I think that might have been our  most extreme August heat, although 1953 definitely needs to be mentioned as having our longest heatwave on record.

 

[SACRUS]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony, how hot was the August 2001 heatwave at both EWR and NYC, did we come close to having three straight days of 100+? I know JFK never made it to 100 in 2001 but they hit 98 on one day and 99 the next day I think?

I was looking for your 8-7-2001 historic records post but could not find it.

Almost 4 at EWR

2001:

 

EWR:

 

8/5 : 88 / 69
8/6: 97 / 73
8/7: 100 / 77
8/8: 101 / 82
8/9: 105/ 77
8/10: 99 / 76


NYC:

 

2001:

8/5: 90 / 70
8/6: 94 / 75
8/7: 99 / 78
8/8: 99 / 79
8/9: 103 / 82
8/10: 97 / 75


JFK:

2001:

 

8/5: 83/ 68
8/6: 86 / 71
8/7: 96 / 75
8/8:  99 / 80
8/9: 98 / 76
8/10: 90 / 74 


LGA:

2001:

8/5: 89 / 72
8/6: 93 / 77
8/7: 99 / 81
8/8: 98 / 81
8/9: 104 / 82
8/10: 98 / 77

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Down to 54 here-feels like fall. Unfortunately short lived. 

I wish we had this for the Perseid meteor shower next week (and no interference from the moon).

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Almost 4 at EWR

2001:

 

EWR:

 

8/6: 97 / 73
8/7: 100 / 77
8/8: 101 / 82
8/9: 105/ 77
8/10: 99 / 76

wow this has to be the greatest August heatwave that I lived through, do you have the same list for NYC and JFK too? I think they came close to 100 on more than one day too.

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow this has to be the greatest August heatwave that I lived through, do you have the same list for NYC and JFK too? I think they came close to 100 on more than one day too.

Added it above to the main post.  

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Added it above to the main post.  

 

Thanks Tony!!

Wow, the skies are so deep blue, I could live with this weather forever.  Screw summer, screw winter, just have this weather 24/7/365 lol

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Almost 4 at EWR

2001:

 

EWR:

 

8/5 : 88 / 69
8/6: 97 / 73
8/7: 100 / 77
8/8: 101 / 82
8/9: 105/ 77
8/10: 99 / 76


NYC:

 

2001:

8/5: 90 / 70
8/6: 94 / 75
8/7: 99 / 78
8/8: 99 / 79
8/9: 103 / 82
8/10: 97 / 75


JFK:

2001:

 

8/5: 83/ 68
8/6: 86 / 71
8/7: 96 / 75
8/8:  99 / 80
8/9: 98 / 76
8/10: 90 / 74 


LGA:

2001:

8/5: 89 / 72
8/6: 93 / 77
8/7: 99 / 81
8/8: 98 / 81
8/9: 104 / 82
8/10: 98 / 77

what I find ironic is that JFK's 99 was actually on the day prior to the hottest day in the other locations.

LGA and EWR set the monthly records with their 104 and 105 and NYC was only one degree off with their 103.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Almost 4 at EWR

2001:

 

EWR:

 

8/5 : 88 / 69
8/6: 97 / 73
8/7: 100 / 77
8/8: 101 / 82
8/9: 105/ 77
8/10: 99 / 76


NYC:

 

2001:

8/5: 90 / 70
8/6: 94 / 75
8/7: 99 / 78
8/8: 99 / 79
8/9: 103 / 82
8/10: 97 / 75


JFK:

2001:

 

8/5: 83/ 68
8/6: 86 / 71
8/7: 96 / 75
8/8:  99 / 80
8/9: 98 / 76
8/10: 90 / 74 


LGA:

2001:

8/5: 89 / 72
8/6: 93 / 77
8/7: 99 / 81
8/8: 98 / 81
8/9: 104 / 82
8/10: 98 / 77

NYC came extremely close to having three days of 100+ which is outrageous in this era of foliage blockage and the fact that this happened in August, not July.  It still did not match August 1948's three straight days of 100+ but this was the closest we've gotten to since then for three straight 100+ days at NYC in August.

 

Tony could you post the 100+ days in August 1948 at all of these locations please-- I think this was the first month that the sensor at JFK came into operation.

[SACRUS]

August 1948 Newark Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
August 24	90	64	0.00	0.0
August 25	96	70	0.00	0.0
August 26	103	73	0.00	0.0
August 27	99	73	0.00	0.0
August 28	102	75	0.00	0.0
August 29	97	77	0.00	0.0
August 30	88	71	0.00	0.0

 

August 1948 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
August 24	84	69	0.00	0.0
August 25	95	72	0.00	0.0
August 26	103	78	0.00	0.0
August 27	101	79	0.00	0.0
August 28	100	78	0.00	0.0
August 29	95	78	0.00	0.0
August 30	87	73	0.00	0.0

 

 

August 1948 JFK Airport Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
August 25	94	71	0.00	0.0
August 26	100	76	0.00	0.0
August 27	101	76	0.00	0.0
August 28	98	77	0.00	0.0
August 29	96	78	0.00	0.0
August 30	90	72	0.00	0.0
August 31	83	63	0.00	0.0

 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

I briefly fell to 59 degrees this morning. Nice

For last month, zero electric bill, and just got my SREC check, $535.  I'm sure my electric bill would have been $400+ easily with the rates going way up.  So in one month, that was nearly +1k for me.  You really should look into getting panels if you can.  

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

For last month, zero electric bill, and just got my SREC check, $535.  I'm sure my electric bill would have been $400+ easily with the rates going way up.  So in one month, that was nearly +1k for me.  You really should look into getting panels if you can.  

the problem here is I don't know how long we'll be in the house-boys are 16 and this place is 4000 SQ FT.   Not sure I need all that for the time it would take to recoup my investment....some of the panels here actually look decent-beveled edges alot nicer that some of the early panels which were truly hideous on the front of the house

[FPizz]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the problem here is I don't know how long we'll be in the house-boys are 16 and this place is 4000 SQ FT.   Not sure I need all that for the time it would take to recoup my investment....some of the panels here actually look decent-beveled edges alot nicer that some of the early panels which were truly hideous on the front of the house

Yeah, for me I'm on year 12 of them and they are still producing big time.  Over the years they got a better looking than mine, but mine still aren't too bad.  I have 3900 or so sq feet including my basement and my kids are older than yours (17, 17, 19).  But, we are still a good 16 years from retirement, so we will be here for many more years.  If people know they are going to be in their homes for a while, I think they are totally worth it. I've mentioned before I didn't install them, I moved in here when they were 4 years old.  But with the savings and checks, these would have been paid off in less than 5 years (prior owner paid off up front).  The main issue, on year 9, I had a problem with an inverter box.  By then, the guys coming out to try to fix them acted like they were looking at a dinosaur and weren't trained on "old" systems.  Tech has jumped a ton over that period and it took around 20 months to finally find someone that knew what they were doing.  

[uofmiami]

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

actually that's not true Chris, on August 7, 1918 Newark hit 105 and NYC hit 104

August 2001 gets honorable mention for hitting 103.

We have a long way to go to match the kinds of heatwaves we had back then.

 

I was talking about the August 10-17 period in that post. Thankfully, we have not seen the kind of drought which drove those 103° to 105° August and September heatwaves.

All our 103°-105°+ heat since the record summer warmth began in 2010 has occurred in June and July. Those 40s and 50s heatwaves and a few earlier events occurred later in the season. 

Next week is looking like more of an over the top heat wave. Latest runs have more onshore flow. So both models showing 102° a few days ago for next Wednesday have cooled 3-4° down to a 98°-99° max. But it wouldn’t  take much for somebody at the usual warm spots to reach 100°.

So it continues to look like our peak heat in 2025 was back in June. With each succeeding heatwave moderating a bit as the season goes on. 

It’s impressive that both models have 98°-100° potential for parts of Maine and Canada. This is part of the record Canadian heat and drought resulting in the unprecedented wildfires in Canada. 

So with all this onshore flow in recent years, the JFK 32 days reaching 90° back in 2010 will be safe for another year.

 

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

I would venture to say that big August heat is tougher to achieve than June-lower sun angle/decreasing day length has to have some sort of effect 

[lee59]

42 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I would venture to say that big August heat is tougher to achieve than June-lower sun angle/decreasing day length has to have some sort of effect 

 

Also looks like the models are backing off some on the hot temperatures next week.

[BxEngine]

Storms off the carolinas look awesome from the atlantic. I dont wanna come home lol

[donsutherland1]

This morning, the temperature fell to 64° in Central Park. That was the third consecutive day with a low of 64° or below and the second such streak during the first 10 days of August. The last time that happened was way back in 1921.

Tomorrow will again see highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows falling into the upper 60s in New York City. 

A new round of heat will likely begin to develop on Sunday. The region will likely experience a return of 90° or above heat next week. Temperatures could top out in the middle or perhaps even upper 90s in the hot spots when the heat peaks during the Tuesday through Thursday period.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +15.11 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.595 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[Sundog]

I was just at the nature preserve in Oceanside.

It was a gorgeous day to watch some birds. 

I saw a bunch of different species, geese and seagulls not included haha

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 85
TEB: 83
EWR: 82
NYC: 82
New Brnswck: 81
LGA: 81
TTN: 81
ISP: 80
ACY: 79
JFK: 79 * missing the intra hour highs
BLM: 77

[doncat]

80/58 temp split today...should make it into the 50's again by morning.

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

I was just at the nature preserve in Oceanside.

It was a gorgeous day to watch some birds. 

I saw a bunch of different species, geese and seagulls not included haha

Ospreys,Eggrets (lesser and greater) were probably there.

[WE GOT HIM]

Happy Friday everyone.

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Ospreys,Eggrets (lesser and greater) were probably there.

I saw those as well as willets and black crowned night herons. 

[SnoSki14]

Very pleasant 55F right now