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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 8/7/2025 at 6:34 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Euro has all-time mid-August heat in the forecast. Just using Newark as a reference point, it gets places like Newark to 102°. That ties for the warmest ever recorded for this time of year. You can also see that Central to Northern Queens could reach 100°.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures August 11th through 20th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2005-08-20 102 0
- 1949-08-20 102 0
- 1944-08-20 102 0
2 2002-08-20 100 0


IMG_4338.thumb.png.f830eaf541c1f1668046b289af42e172.png

actually that's not true Chris, on August 7, 1918 Newark hit 105 and NYC hit 104

August 2001 gets honorable mention for hitting 103.

We have a long way to go to match the kinds of heatwaves we had back then.

 

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forkyfork
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and november and december and january and february

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80 and sunny somewhere just north of the bahamas in the atlantic….

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cleetussnow

Parts unknown…shawagunks sunset tonight.  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 8/6/2025 at 8:38 PM, Sundog said:

Looks like the models have the bigger heat a hair inland as I see lots of southerly winds next week. 

It's also not that hot, some days are not hot at all. 

Good news for big heat haters. 

No those southerly winds are much worse, if we get a westerly wind we will get nice 100 degree dry heat, which is much better than 75 degree dew points

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

actually that's not true Chris, on August 7, 1918 Newark hit 105 and NYC hit 104

August 2001 gets honorable mention for hitting 103.

We have a long way to go to match the kinds of heatwaves we had back then.

 

 

EWR Top August temps

 

1918: 105
2001: 105
1948: 103
1948: 102
1953: 102
1949: 102
1944: 102
2005: 102

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Officially the coolest start to August since 2013 which was a nice break from the wall to wall heat since late June. Hoping the 0z Euro has a clue about the more onshore flow and the 100° heat misses to the north in Maine. But the GFS still has more westerly flow and gets the warm spots to 101° on Wednesday. We are one of the parts of the country where a small shift to more southerly flow can make the difference between 90s and low 100s.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ August 1-7 Average Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2025-08-07 74.5 1
2024-08-07 81.7 0
2023-08-07 75.6 0
2022-08-07 83.1 0
2021-08-07 75.6 0
2020-08-07 78.7 0
2019-08-07 77.9 0
2018-08-07 82.2 0
2017-08-07 74.9 0
2016-08-07 75.8 0
2015-08-07 79.1 0
2014-08-07 75.9 0
2013-08-07 73.2 0
2012-08-07 80.4 0
2011-08-07 80.6 0
2010-08-07 79.9 0

The cool start was even more impressive in other parts of the area:

Bridgeport, Central Park, Newark: Coolest since 2013

JFK: Coolest since 1996

LGA: Coolest since 1985

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR Top August temps

 

1918: 105
2001: 105
1948: 103
1948: 102
1953: 102
1949: 102
1944: 102
2005: 102

Tony, how hot was the August 2001 heatwave at both EWR and NYC, did we come close to having three straight days of 100+? I know JFK never made it to 100 in 2001 but they hit 98 on one day and 99 the next day I think?

I was looking for your 8-7-2001 historic records post but could not find it.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR Top August temps

 

1918: 105
2001: 105
1948: 103
1948: 102
1953: 102
1949: 102
1944: 102
2005: 102

1944 had 3 100+ days at both NYC and EWR, 1948 had three in a row at both NYC and EWR and 2 in a row at JFK, I think that might have been our  most extreme August heat, although 1953 definitely needs to be mentioned as having our longest heatwave on record.

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony, how hot was the August 2001 heatwave at both EWR and NYC, did we come close to having three straight days of 100+? I know JFK never made it to 100 in 2001 but they hit 98 on one day and 99 the next day I think?

I was looking for your 8-7-2001 historic records post but could not find it.

Almost 4 at EWR

2001:

 

EWR:

 

8/5 : 88 / 69
8/6: 97 / 73
8/7: 100 / 77
8/8: 101 / 82
8/9: 105/ 77
8/10: 99 / 76


NYC:

 

2001:

8/5: 90 / 70
8/6: 94 / 75
8/7: 99 / 78
8/8: 99 / 79
8/9: 103 / 82
8/10: 97 / 75


JFK:

2001:

 

8/5: 83/ 68
8/6: 86 / 71
8/7: 96 / 75
8/8:  99 / 80
8/9: 98 / 76
8/10: 90 / 74 


LGA:

2001:

8/5: 89 / 72
8/6: 93 / 77
8/7: 99 / 81
8/8: 98 / 81
8/9: 104 / 82
8/10: 98 / 77

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow this has to be the greatest August heatwave that I lived through, do you have the same list for NYC and JFK too? I think they came close to 100 on more than one day too.

Added it above to the main post.  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Almost 4 at EWR

2001:

 

EWR:

 

8/5 : 88 / 69
8/6: 97 / 73
8/7: 100 / 77
8/8: 101 / 82
8/9: 105/ 77
8/10: 99 / 76


NYC:

 

2001:

8/5: 90 / 70
8/6: 94 / 75
8/7: 99 / 78
8/8: 99 / 79
8/9: 103 / 82
8/10: 97 / 75


JFK:

2001:

 

8/5: 83/ 68
8/6: 86 / 71
8/7: 96 / 75
8/8:  99 / 80
8/9: 98 / 76
8/10: 90 / 74 


LGA:

2001:

8/5: 89 / 72
8/6: 93 / 77
8/7: 99 / 81
8/8: 98 / 81
8/9: 104 / 82
8/10: 98 / 77

what I find ironic is that JFK's 99 was actually on the day prior to the hottest day in the other locations.

LGA and EWR set the monthly records with their 104 and 105 and NYC was only one degree off with their 103.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Almost 4 at EWR

2001:

 

EWR:

 

8/5 : 88 / 69
8/6: 97 / 73
8/7: 100 / 77
8/8: 101 / 82
8/9: 105/ 77
8/10: 99 / 76


NYC:

 

2001:

8/5: 90 / 70
8/6: 94 / 75
8/7: 99 / 78
8/8: 99 / 79
8/9: 103 / 82
8/10: 97 / 75


JFK:

2001:

 

8/5: 83/ 68
8/6: 86 / 71
8/7: 96 / 75
8/8:  99 / 80
8/9: 98 / 76
8/10: 90 / 74 


LGA:

2001:

8/5: 89 / 72
8/6: 93 / 77
8/7: 99 / 81
8/8: 98 / 81
8/9: 104 / 82
8/10: 98 / 77

NYC came extremely close to having three days of 100+ which is outrageous in this era of foliage blockage and the fact that this happened in August, not July.  It still did not match August 1948's three straight days of 100+ but this was the closest we've gotten to since then for three straight 100+ days at NYC in August.

 

Tony could you post the 100+ days in August 1948 at all of these locations please-- I think this was the first month that the sensor at JFK came into operation.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

August 1948 Newark Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
       
90 64 0.00 0.0
96 70 0.00 0.0
103 73 0.00 0.0
99 73 0.00 0.0
102 75 0.00 0.0
97 77 0.00 0.0
88 71 0.00 0.0
         

 

August 1948 New York City Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
       
84 69 0.00 0.0
95 72 0.00 0.0
103 78 0.00 0.0
101 79 0.00 0.0
100 78 0.00 0.0
95 78 0.00 0.0
87 73 0.00 0.0
         

 

 

August 1948 JFK Airport Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
       
94 71 0.00 0.0
100 76 0.00 0.0
101 76 0.00 0.0
98 77 0.00 0.0
96 78 0.00 0.0
90 72 0.00 0.0
83 63 0.00 0.0

 

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FPizz

FPizz

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Sundog said:

I briefly fell to 59 degrees this morning. Nice

For last month, zero electric bill, and just got my SREC check, $535.  I'm sure my electric bill would have been $400+ easily with the rates going way up.  So in one month, that was nearly +1k for me.  You really should look into getting panels if you can.  

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

For last month, zero electric bill, and just got my SREC check, $535.  I'm sure my electric bill would have been $400+ easily with the rates going way up.  So in one month, that was nearly +1k for me.  You really should look into getting panels if you can.  

the problem here is I don't know how long we'll be in the house-boys are 16 and this place is 4000 SQ FT.   Not sure I need all that for the time it would take to recoup my investment....some of the panels here actually look decent-beveled edges alot nicer that some of the early panels which were truly hideous on the front of the house

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FPizz

FPizz

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the problem here is I don't know how long we'll be in the house-boys are 16 and this place is 4000 SQ FT.   Not sure I need all that for the time it would take to recoup my investment....some of the panels here actually look decent-beveled edges alot nicer that some of the early panels which were truly hideous on the front of the house

Yeah, for me I'm on year 12 of them and they are still producing big time.  Over the years they got a better looking than mine, but mine still aren't too bad.  I have 3900 or so sq feet including my basement and my kids are older than yours (17, 17, 19).  But, we are still a good 16 years from retirement, so we will be here for many more years.  If people know they are going to be in their homes for a while, I think they are totally worth it. I've mentioned before I didn't install them, I moved in here when they were 4 years old.  But with the savings and checks, these would have been paid off in less than 5 years (prior owner paid off up front).  The main issue, on year 9, I had a problem with an inverter box.  By then, the guys coming out to try to fix them acted like they were looking at a dinosaur and weren't trained on "old" systems.  Tech has jumped a ton over that period and it took around 20 months to finally find someone that knew what they were doing.  

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

actually that's not true Chris, on August 7, 1918 Newark hit 105 and NYC hit 104

August 2001 gets honorable mention for hitting 103.

We have a long way to go to match the kinds of heatwaves we had back then.

 

I was talking about the August 10-17 period in that post. Thankfully, we have not seen the kind of drought which drove those 103° to 105° August and September heatwaves.

All our 103°-105°+ heat since the record summer warmth began in 2010 has occurred in June and July. Those 40s and 50s heatwaves and a few earlier events occurred later in the season. 

Next week is looking like more of an over the top heat wave. Latest runs have more onshore flow. So both models showing 102° a few days ago for next Wednesday have cooled 3-4° down to a 98°-99° max. But it wouldn’t  take much for somebody at the usual warm spots to reach 100°.

So it continues to look like our peak heat in 2025 was back in June. With each succeeding heatwave moderating a bit as the season goes on. 

It’s impressive that both models have 98°-100° potential for parts of Maine and Canada. This is part of the record Canadian heat and drought resulting in the unprecedented wildfires in Canada. 

So with all this onshore flow in recent years, the JFK 32 days reaching 90° back in 2010 will be safe for another year.

 

IMG_4357.thumb.png.bcbeb2c38d16626502c7d5430704e896.png

IMG_4358.thumb.png.278fb27f2082be8788babb5c13bfccf2.pngIMG_4359.thumb.png.b2891dfd21b6568fe57affdeed74e023.png

 

 

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

This morning, the temperature fell to 64° in Central Park. That was the third consecutive day with a low of 64° or below and the second such streak during the first 10 days of August. The last time that happened was way back in 1921.

Tomorrow will again see highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows falling into the upper 60s in New York City. 

A new round of heat will likely begin to develop on Sunday. The region will likely experience a return of 90° or above heat next week. Temperatures could top out in the middle or perhaps even upper 90s in the hot spots when the heat peaks during the Tuesday through Thursday period.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +15.11 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.595 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Sundog said:

I was just at the nature preserve in Oceanside.

It was a gorgeous day to watch some birds. 

I saw a bunch of different species, geese and seagulls not included haha

Ospreys,Eggrets (lesser and greater) were probably there.

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