August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[wdrag]

5H Trough generally in the eastern half of the USA this month with a strong ridge in the Rockies,  possibly shifting west?  

Tropics eventually should get going... but impact up here in the NYC subforum unknown to this poster. 

[Stormlover74]

Curious if ewr can manage a sub 85 high during this cool dry stretch to open August

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Curious if ewr can manage a sub 85 high during this cool dry stretch to open August

Did they have a sub 80 high during our recent cool stretch?

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did they have a sub 80 high during our recent cool stretch?

No. 80 on Tuesday 

[Stormlover74]

The euro has us back in the 90s by next Tuesday afternoon a 4 day reprieve

[SnoSki14]

Interesting Euro op had some tropical activity. 

With all that ridging and warm subtropical SSTs that's something to watch out for 

[Stormlover74]

yes its the nam but it shows the crazy difference in rainfall amounts over a relatively small area

 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem has heaviest further to the north

[Stormlover74]

Euro quite wet especially Friday 

[IrishRob17]

Hoping it can clear out by Friday late afternoon/evening, the other models seem to be moving it out a bit quicker than the Euro, we shall see.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I'm currently at 101/69 

Hopefully it will be 55 degrees Friday afternoon like the NAM says hahaha

 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

you'll be lucky if it's 75

 

3 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

My P&C 71 lol

My p&c is 69 for a high on Friday, I'd bet the over on that.

[winterwx21]

On 7/28/2025 at 2:15 PM, Stormlover74 said:

The euro has us back in the 90s by next Tuesday afternoon a 4 day reprieve

I see the Euro backed down from that and now keeps it comfortable next week. It certainly would be nice to get a long break from the heat. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see the Euro backed down from that and now keeps it comfortable next week. It certainly would be nice to get a long break from the heat. 

the first 8 days of August will be in the 80s or less.

[Stormlover74]

6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Hoping it can clear out by Friday late afternoon/evening, the other models seem to be moving it out a bit quicker than the Euro, we shall see.

Euro has it mostly out of here by midday now 

[donsutherland1]

Historic frequency of 90° or above days at New York City (Central Park):

August 23 is a statistical oddity with just 7 cases on which the temperature reached 90° or above.

Only June 2-4 during summer had a similar or lower percentage of 90° days. September 7 was the next day with a similar figure. Then, the next similar or lower figure occurred on September 12.

[donsutherland1]

Although August will start cool, there is a distinct heat signature showing up on the EFI chart for August 11-18. The period is also forecast to be warmer than normal on the ECMWF weekly guidance.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although August will start cool, there is a distinct heat signature showing up on the EFI chart for August 11-18. The period is also forecast to be warmer than normal on the ECMWF weekly guidance.

so it looks like we could get as hot as we are now or possibly even hotter Don?

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Historic frequency of 90° or above days at New York City (Central Park):

August 23 is a statistical oddity with just 7 cases on which the temperature reached 90° or above.

Only June 2-4 during summer had a similar or lower percentage of 90° days. September 7 was the next day with a similar figure. Then, the next similar or lower figure occurred on September 12.

Two things that really stand out are that 104 degrees from August 2018 (wow!) and that three day 100+ extreme heatwave that happened at the end of August 1948 (triple wow!!)-- when JFK had back to back 100+ days.  The only other time JFK has hit 100 in August was during the endless summer of 1983 (when it also hit 100+ in July).

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Historic frequency of 90° or above days at New York City (Central Park):

August 23 is a statistical oddity with just 7 cases on which the temperature reached 90° or above.

Only June 2-4 during summer had a similar or lower percentage of 90° days. September 7 was the next day with a similar figure. Then, the next similar or lower figure occurred on September 12.

The third thing that really stands out, I just remembered how incredibly rainy August 14, 2011 was lol, we had 10 inches of rain here and I think it was on a Saturday? No thunder or lightning just absolutely endless heavy rain all day long!!

 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so it looks like we could get as hot as we are now or possibly even hotter Don?

If the numbers are taken as is, there would be 90s. The signal gets damped down over time due to the spread among the ensemble members. It's still fairly prominent at this timeframe.

[nycwinter]

average temps start decreasing in august.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

average temps start decreasing in august.

we had a three day stretch of 100+ at NYC after August 25 (and two day stretch of 100+ at JFK in the same time period) in 1948 and hit 100 after August 20th at JFK in 1983, we can get big heat any time in the month (NYC hit 103 in August in 2001 on the 9th.)

[nycwinter]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we had a three day stretch of 100+ at NYC after August 25 (and two day stretch of 100+ at JFK in the same time period) in 1948 and hit 100 after August 20th at JFK in 1983, we can get big heat any time in the month (NYC hit 103 in August in 2001 on the 9th.)

and it can get chilly in august like this friday will be i remember august 1997 we had a 2 day stretch of highs were 69 and 73 with sunshine and a cool northeast wind

[JBG]

20 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I see the Euro backed down from that and now keeps it comfortable next week. It certainly would be nice to get a long break from the heat. 

It would be even better to have a real summer for once. The last four were disappointing.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

and it can get chilly in august like this friday will be i remember august 1997 we had a 2 day stretch of highs were 69 and 73 with sunshine and a cool northeast wind

yes my first year viewing the perseid meteor shower (I forget which year, either 1986 or 1987) it got down close to 50 at night with clear skies and felt like early fall, zero haze too.

 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we had a three day stretch of 100+ at NYC after August 25 (and two day stretch of 100+ at JFK in the same time period) in 1948 and hit 100 after August 20th at JFK in 1983, we can get big heat any time in the month (NYC hit 103 in August in 2001 on the 9th.)

And I see 12z GFS now brings in the blazing heat during the 2nd week of the month, maybe the hottest weather of the summer. A long way to go for details on how hot it will get, but we have building support for significant heat as Don pointed out. We need to enjoy the comfortable 1st week of the month before it gets very hot again. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And I see 12z GFS now brings in the blazing heat during the 2nd week of the month, maybe the hottest weather of the summer. A long way to go for details on how hot it will get, but we have building support for significant heat as Don pointed out. We need to enjoy the comfortable 1st week of the month before it gets very hot again. 

Yes this strong signal from so far away makes it more concerning.

 

[Stormlover74]

Euro keeps backing off Fridays rain