August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[wdrag]

5H Trough generally in the eastern half of the USA this month with a strong ridge in the Rockies,  possibly shifting west?  

Tropics eventually should get going... but impact up here in the NYC subforum unknown to this poster. 

[Stormlover74]

Curious if ewr can manage a sub 85 high during this cool dry stretch to open August

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Curious if ewr can manage a sub 85 high during this cool dry stretch to open August

Did they have a sub 80 high during our recent cool stretch?

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did they have a sub 80 high during our recent cool stretch?

No. 80 on Tuesday 

[Stormlover74]

The euro has us back in the 90s by next Tuesday afternoon a 4 day reprieve

[SnoSki14]

Interesting Euro op had some tropical activity. 

With all that ridging and warm subtropical SSTs that's something to watch out for 

[Stormlover74]

yes its the nam but it shows the crazy difference in rainfall amounts over a relatively small area

 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem has heaviest further to the north

[Stormlover74]

Euro quite wet especially Friday 

[IrishRob17]

Hoping it can clear out by Friday late afternoon/evening, the other models seem to be moving it out a bit quicker than the Euro, we shall see.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I'm currently at 101/69 

Hopefully it will be 55 degrees Friday afternoon like the NAM says hahaha

 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

you'll be lucky if it's 75

 

3 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

My P&C 71 lol

My p&c is 69 for a high on Friday, I'd bet the over on that.

[winterwx21]

On 7/28/2025 at 2:15 PM, Stormlover74 said:

The euro has us back in the 90s by next Tuesday afternoon a 4 day reprieve

I see the Euro backed down from that and now keeps it comfortable next week. It certainly would be nice to get a long break from the heat. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see the Euro backed down from that and now keeps it comfortable next week. It certainly would be nice to get a long break from the heat. 

the first 8 days of August will be in the 80s or less.

[Stormlover74]

6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Hoping it can clear out by Friday late afternoon/evening, the other models seem to be moving it out a bit quicker than the Euro, we shall see.

Euro has it mostly out of here by midday now 

[donsutherland1]

Historic frequency of 90° or above days at New York City (Central Park):

August 23 is a statistical oddity with just 7 cases on which the temperature reached 90° or above.

Only June 2-4 during summer had a similar or lower percentage of 90° days. September 7 was the next day with a similar figure. Then, the next similar or lower figure occurred on September 12.

[donsutherland1]

Although August will start cool, there is a distinct heat signature showing up on the EFI chart for August 11-18. The period is also forecast to be warmer than normal on the ECMWF weekly guidance.