fall-ish banter

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i hope we get a lot of cold shots this fall to get people's hopes up and then winter is a snowless torch

cold falls suck, last year's fall was ideal.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

On the night of August 22–23, 2025, the sky will offer a double treat for stargazers—a Black Moon offering clear skies and the final chance to catch the Perseid meteor shower this year.

 

The Perseid Meteor Shower’s Last Act

 

The famous Perseids, which peaked around mid-August, will still be active until August 24. By the night of August 22–23, the rates will have dropped significantly from their peak, but under the moonless sky, even faint meteors will be visible. It’s your last opportunity this year to witness these swift “shooting stars” streaking from the constellation Perseus before they fade away.

 

The Black Moon

 

At 2:06 a.m. EDT on August 23, the Moon enters its new moon phase. Because this is the third new moon in a single season, astronomers call it a “seasonal Black Moon,” an event that occurs roughly once every 33 months. Unlike full moons or eclipses, you won’t see the Black Moon itself. But that’s precisely what makes the night special: with no moonlight, the skies will be exceptionally dark, perfect for deep-sky observing.

 

The real highlight of this night is the Milky Way. With the sky at its darkest thanks to the Black Moon, the luminous band of our galaxy will appear at its most striking. 

 

July and August are the prime months to see the Milky Way. From late June through August, Earth’s night-side faces directly toward the galactic core in the constellation Sagittarius. This is the densest, brightest part of our galaxy, packed with star clusters, glowing nebulae, and dark dust lanes. Around midnight, the Milky Way arches high across the sky, making July and August the best time of year to truly experience its full grandeur.

 

Viewers in the Northern Hemisphere will have the best view of these events.. Away from city lights, you’ll be able to trace its star clouds, dark dust lanes, and glowing nebulae stretching across the sky—an awe-inspiring reminder of our place in the cosmos.

 

 

Have to get away from the light pollution for the Milky Way.

Tonight will probably be the best night for stargazing of the entire month though.

 

[Sundog]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

cold falls suck, last year's fall was ideal.

Blasphemy 

[donsutherland1]

NOAA uses a 20th century (1901-2000) baseline for assessing anomalies for purposes of climate analysis. This is how NYC's summers look using the 20th century baseline:

For purposes of "normals," the latest baseline period is 1991-2020. Here's how NYC's summers look using that baseline:

The last summer cooler than the NOAA's long-term 20th century baseline was summer 2009. The last summer cooler than the 1991-2020 baseline was summer 2023. Summer 2025 will wind up warmer than both baselines.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

NOAA uses a 20th century (1901-2000) baseline for assessing anomalies for purposes of climate analysis. This is how NYC's summers look using the 20th century baseline:

For purposes of "normals," the latest baseline period is 1991-2020. Here's how NYC's summers look using that baseline:

The last summer cooler than the NOAA's long-term 20th century baseline was summer 2009. The last summer cooler than the 1991-2020 baseline was summer 2023. Summer 2025 will wind up warmer than both baselines.

How about if we use the 1951-1980 baseline we all want to use Don?

 

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How about if we use the 1951-1980 baseline we all want to use Don?

 

Here it is with 1951-1980 (which is used by NASA GISS):

The most recent summer that was cooler than the above baseline was summer 2017.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here it is with 1951-1980 (which is used by NASA GISS):

The most recent summer that was cooler than the above baseline was summer 2017.

Don there are some extremely cold summers prior to 1930, something we have not seen since.

There's a huge change pre 1930 to post 1930, what flipped in 1930 to do this?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NOAA uses a 20th century (1901-2000) baseline for assessing anomalies for purposes of climate analysis. This is how NYC's summers look using the 20th century baseline:

For purposes of "normals," the latest baseline period is 1991-2020. Here's how NYC's summers look using that baseline:

The last summer cooler than the NOAA's long-term 20th century baseline was summer 2009. The last summer cooler than the 1991-2020 baseline was summer 2023. Summer 2025 will wind up warmer than both baselines.

Using the 1991-2020 baseline the huge changed happened around 1940, but I like the other two baselines more, which shows that our summers changed a lot starting in 1930.

 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don there are some extremely cold summers prior to 1930, something we have not seen since.

There's a huge change pre 1930 to post 1930, what flipped in 1930 to do this?

 

Those really cold summers were 1903 and 1927. Both were very wet summers in a colder climate. Drier years followed and by the time a wetter cycle (internal variability and climate change-forced) returned, the climate had warmed quite a bit from where it was prior to 1930.

[dmillz25]

4 years since Ida sheesh time flies

[BxEngine]

Anyone have any insight on rocky mountain national park? Gonna be in colorado for a few days for a work thing in 2 weeks, most likely what we’ll spend our free time exploring i think.

[gravitylover]

I haven't been there in 30 years but one thing that's probably the same is the east side of the park is significantly more crowded. There's also a fair chance that it will be snowy over ~9k feet. It could be 95° in Boulder, 90 in Estes and 25 going over the top. The west side is (was) much greener and more peaceful.

[donsutherland1]

With ECMWF seasonal maps coming out, focus briefly turns to the coming winter. While it is far too soon to expect much skill from the models, recent winter outcomes suggest that New York City is beginning to put distance between the present and a golden snowfall era.

The core of winter (December-February) was especially snowy for the most part from Winter 1999-00 through Winter 2017-18. Storms dumped an average of 2.9" per event and there were 30 days with 6" or more snow, including 9 with 10" or more. The December-February periods saw an average of 28.2" of snow. For all other winters, storms averaged 1.9" per event with the December-February period averaging 20.8".

[MJO812]

[rclab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Anthony, I’m not well versed to any depth but the hope is that the stormy arrow line, with a prayer, is going to the bench mark. The reality, sadly, is that hugger or in land runner based on that arrow offers the more likely solution. However, all the NYC uber rich in their penthouses on billionaires row will likely see accumulating snow on their 1,000’ terraces while we, the great unwashed, take a cold one with rain.                                                                                                                                         I know …. If I could comment on myself I’d give myself a weinie.  

[STORMANLI]

On 9/4/2025 at 6:48 AM, BxEngine said:

Anyone have any insight on rocky mountain national park? Gonna be in colorado for a few days for a work thing in 2 weeks, most likely what we’ll spend our free time exploring i think.

Check out FOX Weather PARK'D Rocky Mountain National Park on a search engine.  At least 2 videos. Also on weekend evenings the show PARK'D airs on FOX Weather.  I have seen RMNP and others as they repeat. Good luck, enjoy!

[MJO812]

Snow plows are out in NYC. Winter is coming!

[IrishRob17]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snow plows are out in NYC. Winter is coming!

Fitting since this weather is similar to our winters now.

[forkyfork]

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

[Sundog]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

yep even the day 15 fantasy heat maps weren't there

[forkyfork]

24 minutes ago, Sundog said:

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

second year nina with a raging negative pdo. i hope you have a good supply of zoloft for this winter

[rclab]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

second year nina with a raging negative pdo. i hope you have a good supply of zoloft for this winter

The coastal plain will celebrate with December holiday Luau’s. As always ….

[IrishRob17]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

Once you've seen one above freezing January low you've seen them all. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

hey guys about 90 days until we snow

[MJO812]

On 9/8/2025 at 2:33 PM, rclab said:

The coastal plain will celebrate with December holiday Luau’s. As always ….

 

I had snow last year on Christmas Eve

[MJO812]

https://pix11.com/news/local-news/potential-cold-and-snowy-winter-ahead-in-ny-forecast-models-signal/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAMxeuljbGNrAzF6zmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEeDTQavMwZnpEczs6X4BgX_lSBSjMQnmbvwDgJNzkJwCOMQ9a5_BK_Au-Uqyc_aem_ZGS55PROynVyAOLdzJcilw

[LibertyBell]

On 9/8/2025 at 11:40 AM, Sundog said:

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

I liked that it didn't rain much (although it did rain last weekend.)

[Dark Star]

I'm having a civil discussion (or so I think) on a social media site.  I was under the impression that the oceans were absorbing CO2, which has led to increased warming of the oceans.  The other person said that according to Henry's Law, as the oceans warm, the they degas CO2.  Does anyone have an in depth explanation?  

My naive assumption was based on something I had heard years ago.  Earlier projections on the warming global temperatures were thought incorrect during a decreased period, I believe that occurred in the 1980s?  The explanation was that the oceans began absorbing CO2, which slowed the atmospheric warming during that period?  Perhaps I remembered incorrectly, which wouldn't be the first time.

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'm having a civil discussion (or so I think) on a social media site.  I was under the impression that the oceans were absorbing CO2, which has led to increased warming of the oceans.  The other person said that according to Henry's Law, as the oceans warm, the they degas CO2.  Does anyone have an in depth explanation?  

My naive assumption was based on something I had heard years ago.  Earlier projections on the warming global temperatures were thought incorrect during a decreased period, I believe that occurred in the 1980s?  The explanation was that the oceans began absorbing CO2, which slowed the atmospheric warming during that period?  Perhaps I remembered incorrectly, which wouldn't be the first time.

The oceans will continue to absorb C02, just because they got a little warmer doesn't mean they have reached the degassing point. 

They just won't absorb CO2 (or any gas) as well as they did when they were colder. That creates a positive feedback loop for global warming unfortunately. 

But they will continue to absorb gases, just not at the same rate.