July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[CoastalWx]

It’s similar to how I had 6.5” in like 3 hrs here. I think it’s hard in the summer if you’re relying on 850-700 stuff to deliver the goods. Give me a 30kt+ LLJ at 925 ripping over the WF.

[ineedsnow]

Congrats CT on the 12z Euro

[CoastalWx]

Good soaker CT into BOS. Well north of mesos. Not sure I buy that area as the jack. 

[CoastalWx]

12Z RRFS targets a narrow area from SE NY into SW CT. Lets wash away Oxford again.

[WxWatcher007]

I could use the rain 

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Congrats CT on the 12z Euro

He already told you it's not raining in Connecticut. New Jersey and South.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This might be more of a beneficial, widespread soaking rain than anything. Localized flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas where there is greater convective enhancement. 

late to the party today but it may also be a shifted to far south for that, too

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

late to the party today but it may also be a shifted to far south for that, too

I am still very torn on this. I mean it's certainly going to rain and I think at least a general widespread 1-2" is likely but am very skeptical on something like a widespread 2-4" with a strip of say 4-7". I think the NAM may be overamped with the degree of the 925 jet and despite how juiced the NAM is, there isn't a ton of convective precip. I also think we're going to see robust convection across where the SPC has the marginal (probably eventually upped a a slight risk) and that is going to (negatively) influence areas north of that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah that consensus is more of a strata layout deal N of the Pike from what I'm seeing and knowing how these modeled synoptic scenarios tend to go.  There's likely to be some bumpy clumps on the satellite training along southern zones for a time, but the whole axis is settling SE. Seems Friday may correct toward breaking cloud in the afternoon, because the subtle but crucial small tendency to flatten the whole thing means that it is also slightly accelerating almost unnoticed as well. 

Saturday may be up there among the best quality days this summer's had to offer -

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy.

6.89” this month here.

The three nearest stations are 6-7”.

1.5 miles SW drops to 4.09”

It’s crazy how a localized 2.5” footprint or two can skew summer rainfall.

3.57 month to date at MPV, .40 below normal.  

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, mreaves said:

3.57 month to date at MPV, .40 below normal.  

About 5 inches total for June and July here. Don't mind a bit.

[Typhoon Tip]

lot of 96 and 97 around again this afternoon.   Won't make 100 but damn this is still hot and are still Big Heat numbers

[metagraphica]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
240 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-311000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0005.250731T1800Z-250801T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast
Suffolk-
240 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following
  areas, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New
  London, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven and Southern New
  London and southeast New York, including the following areas,
  Northeast Suffolk, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk and
  Southwest Suffolk.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Isolated to scattered instances of urban, poor drainage
  and riverine flash flooding are possible, particularly Thursday
  afternoon and Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely, with localized
    amounts up to 3 inches. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per
    hour will be possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

[metagraphica]

1st official heat wave IMBY.  95/69 currently.  Nice and hot!

[kdxken]

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

You do realize that is an 11 year old . LMAO

[kdxken]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is it even going to rain?

 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do realize that is an 11 year old . LMAO

How old is Ryan? 10? See above

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, kdxken said:

 

Right mainly for  far southern CT

[kdxken]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Right mainly for  far southern CT

I thought you said New Jersey?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, kdxken said:

How old is Ryan? 10? See below.

Why are you following young boys on Twitter.. and even worse posting them here?

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Right mainly for  far southern CT

Oh so you're not getting any rain?

[weatherwiz]

maybe a few tornadic supercells are southern PA tomorrow...though 0-1 shear ay be a bit weak

[dendrite]

Was 96° in North Concord driving home…most of the ride was 92-95°. CON was at least 95°.

Peaked at 88.5° here. Looks like showers moving in.

[weatherwiz]

Is @OceanStWx around? what the heck is this stuff?

[CoastalWx]

Another day approaching the mid 90s as sea turned into a land breeze here. What a summer.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

LBSW

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Right mainly for  far southern CT

So is far Southern Connecticut is the same as Northern Connecticut ? 

"* Flood watch is in effect for northern Connecticut from 2pm

   Thursday through 2pm Friday but may need to be expanded with later forecast cycles"

[CoastalWx]

Maybe a narrow area gets 2-4” but given dry conditions I think this isn’t really a flood deal. Perhaps a tiny narrow zone gets it. Just how I see it.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Is @OceanStWx around? what the heck is this stuff?

Hourly max hail swath at the surface, hourly max through the entire atmosphere, and hourly max at the 0.1 sigma level.