July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest summer so far for 70° minimums across the Northeast. High dew points and clouds keeping the lows up. Plenty of onshore flow with all the high pressure east of New England.

 

 

73F at Williamsport, PA, and 72F at Scranton, PA, also matched record high minima.

[TheClimateChanger]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

73F at Williamsport, PA, and 72F at Scranton, PA, also matched record high minima.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest summer so far for 70° minimums across the Northeast. High dew points and clouds keeping the lows up. Plenty of onshore flow with all the high pressure east of New England.

 

Anecdotally, the atmosphere seems thicker and more "vaporous" than it did decades ago. More Venusian might be a good way to describe it. In my hometown, the normal July minima used to be in the 50s, but now reaching the 50s there is like a big achievement in the month of July. Normal lows from decades ago are now seen as a nice break from the heat. Very weird to see in the absence of any UHI increases. All very bizarre.

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW, is the cloud departure for the Pacific Northwest tied to the ongoing SST anomalies in the western Pacific? Thank you, As always …

 

We started seeing these very strong ridges over the Pacific Northwest and Northeast in recent years. A general expansion of the subtropical ridges leading record SSTs and land temperatures under these near to record 500mb ridges. So the WPAC has seen one of the more dramatic ridge expansions leading record SSTs in recent years. 

 

 

[anthonymm]

33 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Anecdotally, the atmosphere seems thicker and more "vaporous" than it did decades ago. More Venusian might be a good way to describe it. In my hometown, the normal July minima used to be in the 50s, but now reaching the 50s there is like a big achievement in the month of July. Normal lows from decades ago are now seen as a nice break from the heat. Very weird to see in the absence of any UHI increases. All very bizarre.

Just too much water in the atmosphere. Many of our problems would go away if we just had less water vapor lying around.

[SACRUS]

 

84 / 73 sun been out much more the last hour.

[SACRUS]

 

Noon Roundup


JFK: 87
EWR: 86
LGA: 86
New Brnswck: 86
BLM: 85
ACY: 85
TEB: 84
PHL: 84
ISP: 82
TTN: 82

NYC: 81

[Wannabehippie]

84 degrees. DP 75, making it feel so gross outside. Partially sunny skies. I feel like I had to chew the air before I could breath it due to it feeling so heavy, thick.

[steve392]

Storms starting to fire up all around me in Paramus, NJ

[ForestHillWx]

Pouring in Bridgewater/Pluckemin near the office. 

[SACRUS]

 

Invest now

[SACRUS]

 

 

[steve392]

35 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Guaranteed to fall apart by the time it reaches Bergen County or split, go around bergen and re-intensify over bronx and westchester.  

[steve392]

Things getting very interesting on radar!  Can the Bergen Bubble finally get burst!

[Snowlover11]

Approaching 3” of rain.

[Wannabehippie]

Got some thunder, brief downpour in Riverdale, NJ.

 

[steve392]

Finally raining in Paramus.  Really thought it was going to go right over us without raining.  

[donsutherland1]

Showers and heavy thunderstorms will affect parts of the region into early tomorrow morning. North and west of New York City will likely see a general 1"-3" of rain with locally higher amounts exceeding 4".

Already, Scranton has picked up 2.32" of rain through 4:41 pm today. That breaks the daily record of 1.69" from 2017. That is also the 20th highest daily rainfall for any day in July. 

Heavy rain was also falling at Newark with 0.43" over the past 41 minutes.

It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising through Thursday or Friday. The heat will likely peak on Thursday and Friday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm and mainly dry weekend will follow.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +1.05 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.077 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal). 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anyone concerned about flooding here. These are slow moving thunderstorms, I mean this could be a disaster in some areas, maybe i'm panicking!

[Sundog]

Beautiful day at the shore right now:

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone concerned about flooding here. These are slow moving thunderstorms, I mean this could be a disaster in some areas, maybe i'm panicking!

That's why we have a separate thread. Very concerned

[Sundog]

Ironic with all the rain inland

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone concerned about flooding here. These are slow moving thunderstorms, I mean this could be a disaster in some areas, maybe i'm panicking!

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

73F at Williamsport, PA, and 72F at Scranton, PA, also matched record high minima.

If it wasn't for the late June heat this summer would be extremely boring and mediocre.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Ironic with all the rain inland

LGA seems to have gotten quite a bit of rain too.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest summer so far for 70° minimums across the Northeast. High dew points and clouds keeping the lows up. Plenty of onshore flow with all the high pressure east of New England.

 

The extreme heat was confined to two days in June, the rest of the summer has been mediocre.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Its been record hot????

for two days.....

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The minimums have set a new record across the area at spots like SMQ for the first half of summer. The average maximum was 7th warmest. But since last year featured the warmest average high, 7th place this year feels cooler by comparison. So it’s all relative to what we are getting acclimated to.

Warmest Minimum Temperatures through 7-13Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-07-13	62.6	0
2	2013-07-13	62.2	0
3	2024-07-13	61.1	0
4	2021-07-13	60.8	0
-	2005-07-13	60.8	0
5	2006-07-13	60.7	0
6	2010-07-13	60.1	0
7	2020-07-13	59.9	0
-	2014-07-13	59.9	0
8	2015-07-13	59.8	17
9	2008-07-13	59.7	0
10	2011-07-13	59.5	0
-	1999-07-13	59.5	8

 

Warmest Average Maximum Temperature Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-07-13	87.7	0
2	2010-07-13	86.3	0
3	2020-07-13	85.5	0
4	1999-07-13	85.3	8
5	2008-07-13	85.0	0
6	2021-07-13	84.7	0
-	2012-07-13	84.7	0
7	2025-07-13	84.4	0
8	2016-07-13	84.2	0
-	2005-07-13	84.2	0
9	2022-07-13	84.0	0
10	2014-07-13	83.9	0
-	2011-07-13	83.9	0

Last year wasn't that hot either, Chris.

Our last really hot summer was in 2013, I don't put much stock in averages.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Sundog said:

@Brian5671, more rain, higher dewpoints and minimums, more clouds, overall higher temperatures AND @FPizz can't generate as much electricity?

Sounds like a nightmare bro, that last point about his solar panels not producing dividends for @FPizzkeeps me up at night. 

yeah more water vapor in the atmosphere is actually worse than more co2 in the atmosphere

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Higher humidity equals more clouds.

 

and not the higher highs we saw in 2010-2013, which were much easier to endure than the higher humidity type of lower end heat we get now