July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LoboLeader1]

98/69

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why did we get that thing today-- you said no sea breeze remember

 

I didn’t say no sea breeze. The Euro had it stalling near the Belt Parkway and Sunrise Highway on the 12z run yesterday. It’s verifying a little more north than that. But the resolution on the Euro isn’t always high enough to show the exact location of the sea breeze front

This is why the 12z HRRR at a higher resolution showed the stronger sea breeze today. But it’s a short term model and doesn’t always do so well a day out.

Maybe when they upgrade the Euro resolution in the coming years it will be able to perform as well as some of the other higher resolution forecasts. The resolution is still a little too coarse for exact details like the sea breeze front location.

Plus JFK ASOS is always a roll of the dice since it’s right on Jamaica Bay near the border with the 5 towns south of the Belt Parkway.

[Sundog]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so close to 100, YOU CAN DO IT!

I'm stuck at 95 =\

 

I'm currently at 101/69 

Hopefully it will be 55 degrees Friday afternoon like the NAM says hahaha

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'm currently at 101/69 

Hopefully it will be 55 degrees Friday afternoon like the NAM says hahaha

you'll be lucky if it's 75

[Nibor]

5 hours ago, Sundog said:

But look how high quality it is! High frame rate and resolution, at least that's how it's perceived. And it's like 12 seconds long!

I take a screenshot and the image is more than the 1.9mb limit. Good luck reducing the file size on a phone. 

That’s why I recommend using a third party website to host photos like Imgur and then hot linking them. That’s how I’m able to embed high quality gifs. 

[Sundog]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

you'll be lucky if it's 75

Other models show upper 60s, which would be a miracle itself, I'll take that too. 

[ag3]

100.6 in my weather station.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Other models show upper 60s, which would be a miracle itself, I'll take that too. 

I'll take the over on any of that.   Unless it's heavy rain, forget it.

[lee59]

96 here was 98 earlier. Wind SSE giving a little relief.

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I didn’t say no sea breeze. The Euro had it stalling near the Belt Parkway and Sunrise Highway on the 12z run yesterday. It’s verifying a little more north than that. But the resolution on the Euro isn’t always high enough to show the exact location of the sea breeze front

This is why the 12z HRRR at a higher resolution showed the stronger sea breeze today. But it’s a short term model and doesn’t always do so well a day out.

Maybe when they upgrade the Euro resolution in the coming years it will be able to perform as well as some of the other higher resolution forecasts. The resolution is still a little too coarse for exact details like the sea breeze front location.

Plus JFK ASOS is always a roll of the dice since it’s right on Jamaica Bay near the border with the 5 towns south of the Belt Parkway.

to be honest, in June it didn't make it to Sunrise Hwy, I'm south of Sunrise Hwy and it always bakes here in scenarios like this.  I think the barrier islands keep it away.  Long Beach gets the sea breeze, Oceanside does not lol.  What caused the sea breeze? The ocean is much warmer now than it was in June.

in late June even Long Beach made it to 100+ from what I remember, if not, all the towns just north of the barrier islands (Oceanside, Island Park, East Rockaway, Freeport, etc.) all definitely did.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

96 here was 98 earlier. Wind SSE giving a little relief.

it just makes it more humid, the *relief* is an illusion.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Other models show upper 60s, which would be a miracle itself, I'll take that too. 

anything lower than 70 is too cold, 70-75 is just fine.

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I didn’t say no sea breeze. The Euro had it stalling near the Belt Parkway and Sunrise Highway on the 12z run yesterday. It’s verifying a little more north than that. But the resolution on the Euro isn’t always high enough to show the exact location of the sea breeze front

This is why the 12z HRRR at a higher resolution showed the stronger sea breeze today. But it’s a short term model and doesn’t always do so well a day out.

Maybe when they upgrade the Euro resolution in the coming years it will be able to perform as well as some of the other higher resolution forecasts. The resolution is still a little too coarse for exact details like the sea breeze front location.

Plus JFK ASOS is always a roll of the dice since it’s right on Jamaica Bay near the border with the 5 towns south of the Belt Parkway.

actually the five towns baked over 100 in June too, the boundary is usually stuck around Long Beach.  It was over 100+ all the way down to Far Rockaway in June.

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I didn’t say no sea breeze. The Euro had it stalling near the Belt Parkway and Sunrise Highway on the 12z run yesterday. It’s verifying a little more north than that. But the resolution on the Euro isn’t always high enough to show the exact location of the sea breeze front

This is why the 12z HRRR at a higher resolution showed the stronger sea breeze today. But it’s a short term model and doesn’t always do so well a day out.

Maybe when they upgrade the Euro resolution in the coming years it will be able to perform as well as some of the other higher resolution forecasts. The resolution is still a little too coarse for exact details like the sea breeze front location.

Plus JFK ASOS is always a roll of the dice since it’s right on Jamaica Bay near the border with the 5 towns south of the Belt Parkway.

by the way what do you see for tomorrow, can we keep the sea breeze away until 4 pm or later?

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it just makes it more humid, the *relief* is an illusion.

Yea, really doesn't make much difference anyway, 96 or 98.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea, really doesn't make much difference anyway, 96 or 98.

It would have been better if it hit 100 first before that darned thing came in lol

[dWave]

Up to 101 (!) dew 66.

Micronet nearby says 103

[dmillz25]

99/68 here

[Sundog]

LGA at 100 for the 3PM reading 

[Sundog]

97 degrees at NYC's largest natural cooling center

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

to be honest, in June it didn't make it to Sunrise Hwy, I'm south of Sunrise Hwy and it always bakes here in scenarios like this.  I think the barrier islands keep it away.  Long Beach gets the sea breeze, Oceanside does not lol.  What caused the sea breeze? The ocean is much warmer now than it was in June.

in late June even Long Beach made it to 100+ from what I remember, if not, all the towns just north of the barrier islands (Oceanside, Island Park, East Rockaway, Freeport, etc.) all definitely did.

 

It’s very rare for areas south the Belt Parkway near JFK to the Sunrise Highway in Nassau and into Suffolk to completely avoid a sea breeze. This is why June was the first 100° for many locations from JFK out into Suffolk since 2013. The ridge axis most of the time has been east of New England over the last decade leading to more onshore flow.

This summer it has been a little further west allowing  the 100° down to south the South Shore areas back in June. But the ridge is still not far enough west into the Great Lakes to give as much westerly flow as 2010. That’s why the sea breeze today was a bit stronger than forecast from yesterday.

2010 was the only time living in Long Beach that I had so much westerly flow right down to the beach. There were a few times that summer when the sea breeze stalled along the boardwalk with cooler on the beach and warmer along Broadway.

The ridge axis this summer so far has been a blend of 2010-2013 and 2018-2024. So this is why places like JFK are so far behind 2010 on 90° days through late July. But more 90° and 100° days than recent years. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s very rare for areas south the Belt Parkway near JFK to the Sunrise Highway in Nassau and into Suffolk to completely avoid a sea breeze. This is why June was the first 100° for many locations from JFK out into Suffolk since 2013. The ridge axis most of the time has been east of New England over the last decade leading to more onshore flow.

This summer it has been a little further west allowing  the 100° down to south the South Shore areas back in June. But the ridge is still not far enough west into the Great Lakes to give is as much westerly flow as 2010. That’s why the sea breeze today was a bit stronger than forecast from yesterday.

2010 was the only time living in Long Beach that I had so much westerly flow right down to the beach. There were a few times that summer when the sea breeze stalled along the boardwalk with cooler on the beach and warmer along Park Avenue. 

So the ridge axis this summer so far has been a blend of 2010-2013 and 2018-2024. So this is why places like JFK are so far behind 2010 on 90° days through late July. But more 90° and 100° days than recent years. 

the sea breeze isn't avoided, it just hits 100+ before the sea breeze  comes  and the sea breeze is delayed to after 4 pm.

Do you remember July 5, 1999-- it hit 102 at JFK and it was 1 degree hotter than Central Park

and on July 22-23, 2011 it hit 103 and 102 at JFK on back to back days.

Do you think the sea breeze can be held off for a few more hours tomorrow?

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s very rare for areas south the Belt Parkway near JFK to the Sunrise Highway in Nassau and into Suffolk to completely avoid a sea breeze. This is why June was the first 100° for many locations from JFK out into Suffolk since 2013. The ridge axis most of the time has been east of New England over the last decade leading to more onshore flow.

This summer it has been a little further west allowing  the 100° down to south the South Shore areas back in June. But the ridge is still not far enough west into the Great Lakes to give is as much westerly flow as 2010. That’s why the sea breeze today was a bit stronger than forecast from yesterday.

2010 was the only time living in Long Beach that I had so much westerly flow right down to the beach. There were a few times that summer when the sea breeze stalled along the boardwalk with cooler on the beach and warmer along Park Avenue. 

So the ridge axis this summer so far has been a blend of 2010-2013 and 2018-2024. So this is why places like JFK are so far behind 2010 on 90° days through late July. But more 90° and 100° days than recent years. 

Yes, this is a real summer, while 2014-2024 have not been that hot.

 

[psv88]

94/75/106 at MONTAUK

96/73/107 here. 
 

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

99F/RH 39%/DP 68

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the sea breeze isn't avoided, it just hits 100+ before the sea breeze  comes  and the sea breeze is delayed to after 4 pm.

Do you remember July 5, 1999-- it hit 102 at JFK and it was 1 degree hotter than Central Park

and on July 22-23, 2011 it hit 103 and 102 at JFK on back to back days.

Do you think the sea breeze can be held off for a few more hours tomorrow?

Back in 2010 there were several days when the flow stayed westerly nearly all day. And on the warmest days the sea breeze would often get delayed until mid or late afternoon. It was the only summer that this was the case when I lived in Long Beach. 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

you'll be lucky if it's 75

My P&C 71 lol

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

My P&C 71 lol

if we have a steady rain or something then yes-outside of that not happening.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Back in 2010 there were several days when the flow stayed westerly nearly all day. And on the warmest days the sea breeze would often get delayed until mid or late afternoon. It was the only summer that this was the case when I lived in Long Beach. 

Not in 1999, not even on the day it hit 102 at JFK (the high was late in the day too)?

and in 2011 when it was 103 and 102 on back to back days at JFK on July 22-23?

 

[weathermedic]

Down to 90 from a high of 97 at my station. DP is 75 with a HI of 105