July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[forkyfork]

46 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Summer sucks. 

All we get now is wildfire smoke, dewpoints of 90, or rain. 

Can we get on the geoengineering already. What can possibly go wrong that's not already fccked up

this is better than the 50s and cloudy we get all winter

[Stormlover74]

Interesting that Mt holly isn't going with any heat advisories or warnings 

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Interesting that Mt holly isn't going with any heat advisories or warnings 

the afd says they're waiting to see how dewpoints look in the morning

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Interesting that Mt holly isn't going with any heat advisories or warnings 

I think it could be just noise but the GFS backed off the extreme heat a little at 00Z. NAM would suggest it's still on for Wednesday.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thanks Chris and no sea breeze until after 4 pm each day?

The 0z Euro has the strongest offshore flow on Tuesday with 100° potential to JFK and Suffolk with compressional warming just north of the sea breeze front stalled near the beaches to Sunrise Highway.

 

[winterwarlock]

It was just last week where peeps were saying big heat was done for the year

[wdrag]

No thread from me on Tue-Fri til the last minute (Tue morning?).  GFS MOS seems a little cool on the maxes Tue and Wed and too low on chance of rain Thu, maybe Fri too.  

GEFS coming up on qpf now...  all ensembles under 2.5" but the EC OP Max #'s are interesting the past two cycles (isolated over 7" location-location?)

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

It was just last week where peeps were saying big heat was done for the year

Despite a cool start, August will likely be warmer than normal overall. There will be additional opportunities for 90+ heat especially after the 10th.

[winterwarlock]

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ010&warncounty=NJC035&firewxzone=NJZ010&local_place1=Belle Mead NJ&product1=Heat+Advisory&lat=40.465&lon=-74.6456

 

There is a heat advisory thru 8pm Wednesday 

[bluewave]

Another longer range modeling underestimation of the Southeast Ridge which has been a frequent occurrence last decade.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 0z Euro has the strongest offshore flow on Tuesday with 100° potential to JFK and Suffolk with compressional warming just north of the sea breeze front stalled near the beaches to Sunrise Highway.

 

Zero smoke today the skies are crystal clear and deep blue, smoke won't be an impediment to temperatures at all this week.

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another longer range modeling underestimation of the Southeast Ridge which has been a frequent occurrence last decade.

 

 

I hope this is a sign of a new global pattern of reduced sea breezes.  Maybe as we all heat up, oceans and land alike, sea breezes will be much less common.

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite a cool start, August will likely be warmer than normal overall. There will be additional opportunities for 90+ heat especially after the 10th.

This feels like one of this old time historic summers I always used to read about that had multiple heatwaves of 100 plus degrees.

2010 was great but had only one 100+ degree heatwave (granted it was 3 days of 100+ here).

1953 had two 100+ degree heatwaves (NYC) 1966 had three 100+ degree heatwaves (NYC) and 1983 had two 100+ degree heatwaves (JFK)

Those are the only years that have had multiple 100+ degree heatwaves for either NYC or JFK, Don???

 

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This feels like one of this old time historic summers I always used to read about that had multiple heatwaves of 100 plus degrees.

2010 was great but had only one 100+ degree heatwave (granted it was 3 days of 100+ here).

1953 had two 100+ degree heatwaves (NYC) 1966 had three 100+ degree heatwaves (NYC) and 1983 had two 100+ degree heatwaves (JFK)

Those are the only years that have had multiple 100+ degree heatwaves for either NYC or JFK, Don???

 

JFK: 1983

NYC: 1944, 1949, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1966

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK: 1983

NYC: 1944, 1949, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1966

wow NYC had many of these back in the day.....

that was some amazing extreme heat between 1944-1966

[SACRUS]

 

84 / 72 rising quickly.   Heat is on the next 84 hours.  Mid - upper 90s today, mid - upper 90s tomorrw (100 in the hot areas), same for Wed , pending on clouds.  Thursday race to the front / storms and clouds but looks topped in the 80s. Storms and slow moving boundary could produce strong storms and local flooding where the line sets up between Thu AM and Fri PM.  Behind the front a period of cooler - mainly onshore flow the first week of next month.   Ridge rebuilds into the middle of the country and expands east - rising heights and a more southerly flow by the 8th transitioning to a warm-hot / humid period.

 

7/28 - 7/31 :  Hot / Humid - Storms focused on Thu-Fri could be locally 2-4 inches
8/1 - 88 :   Cooler - Onshore - drier overall
8/8 - beyond :  Warm - Hot / Humid wetter overall

 

 

[SACRUS]

8 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think it could be just noise but the GFS backed off the extreme heat a little at 00Z. NAM would suggest it's still on for Wednesday.

WX/PT

Seems like a tendency for N?NNE flow a bit Mon/Tue kind of on /off on the models.  

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1949)
NYC: 97 (1999)
LGA: 98  (1948)
JFK: 98 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 58 (1962)
NYC: 55 (1920)
LGA: 60 (1984)
JFK: 57 (1977)


Historical:

 

 

1609: The Sea Venture was crippled by a hurricane as it headed to Jamestown, VA with provisions for the starving colonists. The 150 men, women and children found safe shelter on the Bahama Islands, which the captain named Somers Islands after the ship's captain. Most of the colonists moved into Virginia the next year, but the island still celebrates Somers Day each July 28. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1819: A small but intense hurricane passed over Bay Saint Louis, MS. The hurricane was considered the worst in fifty years. Few houses were left standing either at Bay Saint Louis or at Pass Christian, and much of the Mississippi coast was desolate following the storm. A U.S. cutter was lost along with its thirty-nine crew members. The storm struck the same area that was hit 150 years later by Hurricane Camille. (David Ludlum) (Ref. WxDoctor)

1819 - A small but intense hurricane passed over Bay Saint Louis, MS. The hurricane was considered the worst in fifty years. Few houses were left standing either at Bay Saint Louis or at Pass Christian, and much of the Mississippi coast was desolate following the storm. A U.S. cutter was lost along with its thirty-nine crew members. The storm struck the same area that was hit 150 years later by Hurricane Camille. (David Ludlum)

1898: A severe thunderstorm produced considerable hail (some stones to 11 ounces) in Chicago, Illinois business district. Some people were hurt, not by hail, but by several hundred runaway horses spooked by the hailstones.

1930 - The temperature at Greensburg, KY, soared to 114 degrees to set a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1934 - The temperature at Grofino, ID, climbed to 118 degrees to establish a record for Idaho. (The Weather Channel)

1935: Sheridan, WY recorded their all-time record high minimum temperature of 77°. The afternoon high of 106° was their second hottest temperature ever. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1952 - A severe storm with hail up to an inch and a half in diameter broke windows, ruined roofs, and stripped trees of leaves near Benson, AZ. The temperature dropped to 37 degrees, as hail was three to four inches deep, with drifts 46 inches high. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: The 99° temperature at Washington, DC set date record and month's mean of 80.9 gave 2nd warmest July. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

 

1974: Avon Park, Fla.--a 6-year old girl was killed by lightning while outside manually turning a TV-antenna pole for better reception. Fallsburg, NY - A mid-afternoon thunderstorm killed one golfer and injured another. Eastern Pennsylvania--One death and three injuries were reported to have resulted from lightning strikes. Hamilton County, Ohio--A boy was killed by lightning while walking from field to farmhouse. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1976: A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado causing F3 damage in Madison County in Illinois The twister destroyed 11 homes, two churches, and a school in the western part of New Douglas and was responsible for 3 deaths and 30 injuries. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1986 - Severe thunderstorms moving out of South Dakota across Iowa produce high winds which derailed eighteen piggyback trailer cars of a westbound freight train near Boone, IA. Sixteen of the cars fell 187 feet into the Des Moines River. The thunderstorms also spawned a number of tornadoes, including one which caused twenty-five to fifty million dollars damage at Sloan, near Sioux City, IA. (Storm Data)

1987 - Thunderstorms in Nevada produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Searchlight, reducing visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Thunderstorms in Montana drenched Lonesome Lake with 3.78 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Wilmington, NC, with 3.33 inches of rain, bringing their monthly total 14.46 inches. Seven cities in Michigan and Minnesota reported record high temperatures for the date. Marquette, MI, hit 99 degrees, and the record high of 94 degrees at Flint MI was their tenth of the month. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Massachusetts. Early evening thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 68 mph at Fort Myers, and evening thunderstorms in South Dakota produced nearly two inches of rain in twenty minutes at Pierpoint. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: A 15-year-old girl was struck and killed in Northampton County as she walked along Smith Beach, VA. Also on this day, in Danville, VA a woman was slightly injured by lightning while standing near a window in her house. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)


1995: A heat wave prevailed across the southwestern U.S. Yuma, AZ reached its all-time high temperature reading with 124°. Palm Springs, CA hit 123° on this date and the 29th tying their all-time record high (7/10/1979 & 8/1/1993). It was 121° at Borrego Springs, CA, their highest temperature on record for July and their second highest temperature ever. Other record highs included: Riverside, CA: 107°, Idyllwild, CA: 95° and Big Bear Lake, CA: 90°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Arlington, VA a man and woman were struck by lightning in the Pentagon's parking lot; the man was listed in serious condition. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)  8 to 10 inches of rain fell across the Spring Creek basin near Fort Collins, CO during the evening hours. The water pooled behind a railroad track bed that acted as a dam, building the water level to a height of 20 feet. When the water began rushing over the top of the track bed, it quickly eroded the earthen embankment, and a wall of water 10 feet to 20 feet high rushed through two trailer parks in the city. 120 mobile homes and 19 houses were destroyed. Damage totaled $200 million dollars. The disaster hit just days before the 21st anniversary of the Big Thompson River flood, which killed 145 people about 20 miles southwest of Fort Collins. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)  In what was described by local residents as the worst flooding in 14 years, severe thunderstorms pounded Needles, CA with damaging winds and torrential rain. Rainfall estimates between 2 and 3 inches in less than one hour inundated and damaged part of a highway and made many local roads impassable. The strong wind gusts destroyed some car ports and downed numerous trees and power lines, further blocking traffic. No injuries were reported.

2000: 16 people were injured when Pam Am flight 165, a Boeing 727 traveling from Orlando, FL to Pittsburgh, PA encountered severe clear air turbulence. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: Three young girls wading in knee deep water in the inlet between Rockaway and Atlantic Beach in Queens were swept away and drowned as dangerous rip currents funneled through the inlet. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Heavy rain produced flash flooding across western north Texas and south-central Oklahoma. Up to 8 inches of rain fell across Archer and Knox counties, with nearly 5 inches across Wichita and Clay counties. Runoff caused several rivers to spill their banks, including the South Wichita River, which eventually crested nearly 5 feet above flood stage near Benjamin, the 3rd highest crest on record for that site. Ardmore, OK received nearly 5 inches as well, along with flash flooding at the Chickasaw National Recreation Center. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2011: 122-year rainfall record for July falls, more storms coming Two passing storms overnight dumped enough rain to make this July the wettest one in the city's history. They also knocked out power to tens of thousands of area residents and raised fears of more flooding. The wave of storms, which spurred tornado and flood watches across the area, raised this month's rainfall total to 9.75 inches, drowning the previous record of 9.56 inches set in July 1889. (July 28, 2011|By William Lee a Chicago Tribune reporter)

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Seems like a tendency for N?NNE flow a bit Mon/Tue kind of on /off on the models.  

thats a hotter wind for the south shore

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1949)
NYC: 97 (1999)
LGA: 98  (1948)
JFK: 98 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 58 (1962)
NYC: 55 (1920)
LGA: 60 (1984)
JFK: 57 (1977)


Historical:

 

 

1609: The Sea Venture was crippled by a hurricane as it headed to Jamestown, VA with provisions for the starving colonists. The 150 men, women and children found safe shelter on the Bahama Islands, which the captain named Somers Islands after the ship's captain. Most of the colonists moved into Virginia the next year, but the island still celebrates Somers Day each July 28. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1819: A small but intense hurricane passed over Bay Saint Louis, MS. The hurricane was considered the worst in fifty years. Few houses were left standing either at Bay Saint Louis or at Pass Christian, and much of the Mississippi coast was desolate following the storm. A U.S. cutter was lost along with its thirty-nine crew members. The storm struck the same area that was hit 150 years later by Hurricane Camille. (David Ludlum) (Ref. WxDoctor)

1819 - A small but intense hurricane passed over Bay Saint Louis, MS. The hurricane was considered the worst in fifty years. Few houses were left standing either at Bay Saint Louis or at Pass Christian, and much of the Mississippi coast was desolate following the storm. A U.S. cutter was lost along with its thirty-nine crew members. The storm struck the same area that was hit 150 years later by Hurricane Camille. (David Ludlum)

1898: A severe thunderstorm produced considerable hail (some stones to 11 ounces) in Chicago, Illinois business district. Some people were hurt, not by hail, but by several hundred runaway horses spooked by the hailstones.

1930 - The temperature at Greensburg, KY, soared to 114 degrees to set a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1934 - The temperature at Grofino, ID, climbed to 118 degrees to establish a record for Idaho. (The Weather Channel)

1935: Sheridan, WY recorded their all-time record high minimum temperature of 77°. The afternoon high of 106° was their second hottest temperature ever. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1952 - A severe storm with hail up to an inch and a half in diameter broke windows, ruined roofs, and stripped trees of leaves near Benson, AZ. The temperature dropped to 37 degrees, as hail was three to four inches deep, with drifts 46 inches high. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: The 99° temperature at Washington, DC set date record and month's mean of 80.9 gave 2nd warmest July. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

 

1974: Avon Park, Fla.--a 6-year old girl was killed by lightning while outside manually turning a TV-antenna pole for better reception. Fallsburg, NY - A mid-afternoon thunderstorm killed one golfer and injured another. Eastern Pennsylvania--One death and three injuries were reported to have resulted from lightning strikes. Hamilton County, Ohio--A boy was killed by lightning while walking from field to farmhouse. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1976: A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado causing F3 damage in Madison County in Illinois The twister destroyed 11 homes, two churches, and a school in the western part of New Douglas and was responsible for 3 deaths and 30 injuries. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1986 - Severe thunderstorms moving out of South Dakota across Iowa produce high winds which derailed eighteen piggyback trailer cars of a westbound freight train near Boone, IA. Sixteen of the cars fell 187 feet into the Des Moines River. The thunderstorms also spawned a number of tornadoes, including one which caused twenty-five to fifty million dollars damage at Sloan, near Sioux City, IA. (Storm Data)

1987 - Thunderstorms in Nevada produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Searchlight, reducing visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Thunderstorms in Montana drenched Lonesome Lake with 3.78 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Wilmington, NC, with 3.33 inches of rain, bringing their monthly total 14.46 inches. Seven cities in Michigan and Minnesota reported record high temperatures for the date. Marquette, MI, hit 99 degrees, and the record high of 94 degrees at Flint MI was their tenth of the month. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Massachusetts. Early evening thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 68 mph at Fort Myers, and evening thunderstorms in South Dakota produced nearly two inches of rain in twenty minutes at Pierpoint. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: A 15-year-old girl was struck and killed in Northampton County as she walked along Smith Beach, VA. Also on this day, in Danville, VA a woman was slightly injured by lightning while standing near a window in her house. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)


1995: A heat wave prevailed across the southwestern U.S. Yuma, AZ reached its all-time high temperature reading with 124°. Palm Springs, CA hit 123° on this date and the 29th tying their all-time record high (7/10/1979 & 8/1/1993). It was 121° at Borrego Springs, CA, their highest temperature on record for July and their second highest temperature ever. Other record highs included: Riverside, CA: 107°, Idyllwild, CA: 95° and Big Bear Lake, CA: 90°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Arlington, VA a man and woman were struck by lightning in the Pentagon's parking lot; the man was listed in serious condition. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)  8 to 10 inches of rain fell across the Spring Creek basin near Fort Collins, CO during the evening hours. The water pooled behind a railroad track bed that acted as a dam, building the water level to a height of 20 feet. When the water began rushing over the top of the track bed, it quickly eroded the earthen embankment, and a wall of water 10 feet to 20 feet high rushed through two trailer parks in the city. 120 mobile homes and 19 houses were destroyed. Damage totaled $200 million dollars. The disaster hit just days before the 21st anniversary of the Big Thompson River flood, which killed 145 people about 20 miles southwest of Fort Collins. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)  In what was described by local residents as the worst flooding in 14 years, severe thunderstorms pounded Needles, CA with damaging winds and torrential rain. Rainfall estimates between 2 and 3 inches in less than one hour inundated and damaged part of a highway and made many local roads impassable. The strong wind gusts destroyed some car ports and downed numerous trees and power lines, further blocking traffic. No injuries were reported.

2000: 16 people were injured when Pam Am flight 165, a Boeing 727 traveling from Orlando, FL to Pittsburgh, PA encountered severe clear air turbulence. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: Three young girls wading in knee deep water in the inlet between Rockaway and Atlantic Beach in Queens were swept away and drowned as dangerous rip currents funneled through the inlet. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Heavy rain produced flash flooding across western north Texas and south-central Oklahoma. Up to 8 inches of rain fell across Archer and Knox counties, with nearly 5 inches across Wichita and Clay counties. Runoff caused several rivers to spill their banks, including the South Wichita River, which eventually crested nearly 5 feet above flood stage near Benjamin, the 3rd highest crest on record for that site. Ardmore, OK received nearly 5 inches as well, along with flash flooding at the Chickasaw National Recreation Center. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2011: 122-year rainfall record for July falls, more storms coming Two passing storms overnight dumped enough rain to make this July the wettest one in the city's history. They also knocked out power to tens of thousands of area residents and raised fears of more flooding. The wave of storms, which spurred tornado and flood watches across the area, raised this month's rainfall total to 9.75 inches, drowning the previous record of 9.56 inches set in July 1889. (July 28, 2011|By William Lee a Chicago Tribune reporter)

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1949)
NYC: 97 (1999)
LGA: 98  (1948)
JFK: 98 (1949)

 

Big heat this time of year in 1948, 1949 and 1999, it's interesting that no one made it to 100 besides Newark (they had 8 100+ days in 1949, only beaten by 1993's 9!!!) Maybe we can change that this week.....

[Stormlover74]

Euro has 1 to 2" of rain Thursday into Friday. Looks like we won't clear out until friday afternoon but should be sunny and comfortable for the upcoming weekend

[forkyfork]

looks like less smoke than expected today

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite a cool start, August will likely be warmer than normal overall. There will be additional opportunities for 90+ heat especially after the 10th.

Totally agree with this. The heat just keeps on building back possibly into early September. In addition, I do not think the "cool down" is going to be quite as cool as it earlier appeared to be.

WX/PT

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Totally agree with this. The heat just keeps on building back possibly into early September. In addition, I do not think the "cool down" is going to be quite as cool as it earlier appeared to be.

WX/PT

The cool down Friday might be more due to clouds and rain. The weekend looks a tad below average then we're right back to normal.  At least low dewpoints should make for comfy weather

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The cool down Friday might be more due to clouds and rain. The weekend looks a tad below average then we're right back to normal.  At least low dewpoints should make for comfy weather

Nice we've gotten a few breaks from the heat but the models have been terrible with pushing the ridge west-won't buy into that anymore.

[SnoSki14]

50 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Totally agree with this. The heat just keeps on building back possibly into early September. In addition, I do not think the "cool down" is going to be quite as cool as it earlier appeared to be.

WX/PT

This sucks. There's nothing redeeming about it. The only happy people are the ones that work in AC offices and never have to worry about the heat. 

[Jersey Andrew]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Totally agree with this. The heat just keeps on building back possibly into early September. In addition, I do not think the "cool down" is going to be quite as cool as it earlier appeared to be.

WX/PT

So second half of August looks hot now? Was hoping for humidity and heat to back off for NYC trip August 15.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This sucks. There's nothing redeeming about it. The only happy people are the ones that work in AC offices and never have to worry about the heat. 

whats redeeming is if you hit 100 and make history

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Totally agree with this. The heat just keeps on building back possibly into early September. In addition, I do not think the "cool down" is going to be quite as cool as it earlier appeared to be.

WX/PT

are you comparing this to 1983, 1993 and 2010 in those regards?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

looks like less smoke than expected today

yup, but more clouds

where do these clouds come from anyway?