July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

When is the wind gonna change and blow this isht outta here? 

Tonight it should dissipate...

[JustinRP37]

So much smoke today. Got worse heading back home after the game. 

[nycwinter]

who would have wanted a southerly more humid air mass to blow the smoke away instead of a drier air mass..

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

PHL: 88
TEB: 87
EWR: 85
JFK: 85
NYC: 85
LGA: 85
ACY: 84
New Brnswck: 84
ISP: 84
TTN: 84
BLM: 80 * missing readings

[SACRUS]

 

Storms approaching CPA

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

JFK has a shot at their first 80° July since 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	80.7	0
2	2011	79.8	0
3	2013	79.5	0
4	2025	79.3	6
-	2022	79.3	0
-	2020	79.3	0
5	2019	78.8	0
6	1999	78.7	0
-	1993	78.7	0
7	2016	78.6	0
-	1983	78.6	0
-	1949	78.6	0
8	2015	78.4	0
-	2012	78.4	0
9	1994	78.1	0
10	1955	78.0	0
11	2024	77.8	0
-	2023	77.8	0
-	2002	77.8	0
12	1995	77.7	0
13	1952	77.6	0
14	2008	77.3	0
-	1981	77.3	0
15	1971	77.2	0

wow nice, 2011 was oh so close

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

nws updated wednesday forecast high for 95 in the city now..

what about for Tuesday

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

nws updated wednesday forecast high for 95 in the city now..

I hope this air pollution from Canada doesn't interrupt our heat next week.

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

wow nice, 2011 was oh so close

 

Also was missing a few days highs which could have skewed the monthly 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Also was missing a few days highs which could have skewed the monthly 

hopefully we make it since the rest of the month looks very hot

[psv88]

86 today 

[psv88]

Beautiful night 

[LibertyBell]

somehow the smoke always goes away at night.....

[Snowlover11]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

somehow the smoke always goes away at night.....

Just harder to see.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Just harder to see.

If the moon was around we'd probably see it, as smoke or haze makes the moon look orange

[Stormlover74]

Probably going to weaken but radar is juiced in pa

[Snowlover11]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably going to weaken but radar is juiced in pa

Will miss northern nj, se ny.  central and southern nj wins again.

[nycwinter]

nyc threads the needle between two clusters of rain to the north and just to the south  lol..

[Snowlover11]

13 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

nyc threads the needle between two clusters of rain to the north and just to the south  lol..

yup nadda here once again.

[wdrag]

Monitoring potential 100F KEWR into central LI Tue-Wed, before a possible widespread heavy rain event late Wed-early Fri when it cools considerably.  

NWS heat products eventually for Wednesday as well, HI up near 105 then when the worst HI of the next 4 days. 

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 69 partly cloudy 0.10 / some light rain overnight.  Most storms/rain to the north , an area in PA.  On/off clouds mid 80s today with storms this afternoon.  Flow comes around from this onshore one , more N/NNW tomorrow brining a return of the heat, flow flattens later Tue - Thu with strong heat Tue/Wed for the area.  Thursday a race to the clouds / front which looks like the afternoon , any delay and the heat is prolonged a day.    Storms Thursday / Fri morning with the front could see some heavier totals.   Cooler period for a week to 9 days with drier / canadian air,  flow comes around to a warm-hot humid one by the 8/9th.

7/27 :  Onshore / cooler storms
7/28 - 7/31 :  Hot/Humid - Storms Thursday heat peak Tye/Wed
8/1 - 8/9 :   Cooler - overall  - Drier
8/9 - beyond :  Warm- Hot / Humid / wetter overall

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2005)
NYC: 98 (1963)
LGA: 100 (2005)
JFK: 97 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1977)
NYC: 55 (1920)
LGA: 59 (1962)
JFK: 59 (2001)



Historical:

 

1819: A hurricane affected the coast from Louisiana to Alabama. New Orleans was on the fringe of the storm and suffered no severe damage. Ships at the Balize experienced a strong gale for 24 hours that only grounded three ships. Lakes Pontchartrain and Borgne rose five to six feet during the storm, with farms along the lakes flooded by the storm tide. Forty-one lives were lost on the U.S. Man of War schooner Firebrand, a 150-ton gunship, while it lay off the west end of Cat Island. At 15 least 43 people died in all.

1926 - A hurricane came inland near Daytona Beach, FL. The hurricane caused 2.5 million dollars damage in eastern Florida, including the Jacksonville area. (David Ludlum)

 

1926: A destructive Category 4 hurricane struck Nassau during the evening hours on the 25th. The hurricane passed just east of Cape Canaveral early on the 28th and made landfall near present-day Edgewater, Florida.

 

1930: High minimum temperature was 81° and the maximum of 99° gave a daily mean of 90° in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1939 - The temperature at Lewiston, ID, hit 117 degrees to establish an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1943 - On a whim, and flying a single engine AT-6, Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair and Colonel Duckworth were the first to fly into a hurricane. It started regular Air Force flights into hurricanes. (The Weather Channel)

 

1943: A "surprise," Category 2 Hurricane moved ashore near Galveston, Texas. Due to World War II, all news underwent censorship, including any weather reports making this the surprise storm. The hurricane killed 19 people and caused millions of dollars in damages. Of particular note, Lieutenant Colonel Joe Duckworth and Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair flew an AT-6 Texan into the eye of the hurricane, becoming the first flight into the eye of the storm. 

1987 - Thunderstorms in Minnesota spawned a tornado which moved in a southwesterly direction for a distance of thirty miles across Rice County and Goodhue County. Trees were uprooted and tossed about like toys, and a horse lifted by the tornado was observed sailing horizontally through the air. Thunderstorms drenched La Crosse, WI, with 5.26 inches of rain, their second highest 24 hour total of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Hot weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Williston, ND, reported a record high of 108 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the eastern U.S., and in southeastern Texas. Richland County, SC, was soaked with up to 5.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Yuma, AZ, experienced their most severe thunderstorm of record. Strong thunderstorm winds, with unofficial gusts as high as 95 mph, reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Yuma got nearly as much rain in one hour as is normally received in an entire year. The storm total of 2.55 inches of rain was a record 24 hour total for July. Property damage due to flash flooding and high winds was in the millions. (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin and northern Illinois to New England, with 103 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Thunderstorms in Wisconsin produced hail three inches in diameter near Oshkosh, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Germantown. (The National Weather Summary)

1993: The Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993: Rising water stopped all rail traffic through Kansas City, MO. Flood crests from the Missouri and Kansas Rivers pushed toward Kansas City, MO at the same time, prompting fears that the crests would arrive simultaneously, pushing water over the city's flood control levees. Fortunately, the crests arrived six hours apart, with water levels just lapping at the very tops of the levees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: Powhatan County, VA a woman received minor injuries when lightning struck her near the front door of her house. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1995: A heat wave began on this date across the southwest and continued through the 29th. Record highs included: Coachella, CA: 120 °F, Phoenix, AZ: 118 °F, San Jacinto, CA: 113 °F, Tucson, AZ: 113 °F, Riverside, CA: 112°, Banning, CA: 111 °F, Moreno Valley, CA: 111 °F, Sun City, CA: 111 °F and Yucaipa: 110 °F and Winslow, AZ: 103 °F. A male tourist from Ohio drowned in a rip current at Lake Worth Beach, FL. Strong easterly winds associated with the approach of Tropical Storm Erin caused the rip current. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: On this date 6.68 inches of rain fell at Oak Grove, AL, west of Birmingham. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: Across the western U.S. record highs included: Thermal, CA: 123°, Borrego Springs, CA: 119°, Yuma, AZ: 118°, Yakima, WA: 106°, Medford, OR: 106°, Eugene, OR: 105°, Olympia, WA: 99°, Seattle, WA: 95° and Quillayute, WA: 86°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: A severe thunderstorm produced a 100 mph wind gust 8 miles north of Hardin; MT. Several 5 to 6 foot diameter trees were blown down. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: A severe weather outbreak produced tornadoes and downburst wind damage across parts of Lower Michigan. A tornado with top winds around 80 mph touched down about one mile east of Augusta in Kalamazoo County. The tornado passed through Fort Custer in western Calhoun County, about one mile northwest of the Battle Creek airport. The damage path was approximately 800 yards wide and path length was 3 miles long. After the tornado ended, downburst damage continued for several more miles in Calhoun County. A severe thunderstorm struck a campground and mobile home park along Swan Lake in southern Allegan County. Trees were blown down onto mobile homes and small boats were blown out of the lake. Top winds with the downburst were estimated at 70 mph. Locally heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding affected parts of Ohio. Among the worst hit places were Dayton and Wilmington with 3.77 inches and 3.72 inches of rain respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[SACRUS]

 

Mostly attributed to storms today and then Thu/Fri with the front with the main focus (then) which could be a slow moving boundary

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Ridge to the north keeps the area cooler the next 7- 8 days from Friday (1st) likely opening the first week -3 to -5.   The rebound as the flow comes around to a more humid one and heat west builds east.

 

[bluewave]

The smoke may be so thick tomorrow that it prevents a run on 100°.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Good map to show source and projected smoke carry

 

https://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/current/

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The smoke may be so thick tomorrow that it prevents a run on 100°.

 

 

it's not supposed to be 100 anywhere tomorrow, thats for Tuesday and Wednesday.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2005)
NYC: 98 (1963)
LGA: 100 (2005)
JFK: 97 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1977)
NYC: 55 (1920)
LGA: 59 (1962)
JFK: 59 (2001)



Historical:

 

1819: A hurricane affected the coast from Louisiana to Alabama. New Orleans was on the fringe of the storm and suffered no severe damage. Ships at the Balize experienced a strong gale for 24 hours that only grounded three ships. Lakes Pontchartrain and Borgne rose five to six feet during the storm, with farms along the lakes flooded by the storm tide. Forty-one lives were lost on the U.S. Man of War schooner Firebrand, a 150-ton gunship, while it lay off the west end of Cat Island. At 15 least 43 people died in all.

1926 - A hurricane came inland near Daytona Beach, FL. The hurricane caused 2.5 million dollars damage in eastern Florida, including the Jacksonville area. (David Ludlum)

 

1926: A destructive Category 4 hurricane struck Nassau during the evening hours on the 25th. The hurricane passed just east of Cape Canaveral early on the 28th and made landfall near present-day Edgewater, Florida.

 

1930: High minimum temperature was 81° and the maximum of 99° gave a daily mean of 90° in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1939 - The temperature at Lewiston, ID, hit 117 degrees to establish an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1943 - On a whim, and flying a single engine AT-6, Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair and Colonel Duckworth were the first to fly into a hurricane. It started regular Air Force flights into hurricanes. (The Weather Channel)

 

1943: A "surprise," Category 2 Hurricane moved ashore near Galveston, Texas. Due to World War II, all news underwent censorship, including any weather reports making this the surprise storm. The hurricane killed 19 people and caused millions of dollars in damages. Of particular note, Lieutenant Colonel Joe Duckworth and Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair flew an AT-6 Texan into the eye of the hurricane, becoming the first flight into the eye of the storm. 

1987 - Thunderstorms in Minnesota spawned a tornado which moved in a southwesterly direction for a distance of thirty miles across Rice County and Goodhue County. Trees were uprooted and tossed about like toys, and a horse lifted by the tornado was observed sailing horizontally through the air. Thunderstorms drenched La Crosse, WI, with 5.26 inches of rain, their second highest 24 hour total of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Hot weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Williston, ND, reported a record high of 108 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the eastern U.S., and in southeastern Texas. Richland County, SC, was soaked with up to 5.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Yuma, AZ, experienced their most severe thunderstorm of record. Strong thunderstorm winds, with unofficial gusts as high as 95 mph, reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Yuma got nearly as much rain in one hour as is normally received in an entire year. The storm total of 2.55 inches of rain was a record 24 hour total for July. Property damage due to flash flooding and high winds was in the millions. (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin and northern Illinois to New England, with 103 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Thunderstorms in Wisconsin produced hail three inches in diameter near Oshkosh, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Germantown. (The National Weather Summary)

1993: The Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993: Rising water stopped all rail traffic through Kansas City, MO. Flood crests from the Missouri and Kansas Rivers pushed toward Kansas City, MO at the same time, prompting fears that the crests would arrive simultaneously, pushing water over the city's flood control levees. Fortunately, the crests arrived six hours apart, with water levels just lapping at the very tops of the levees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: Powhatan County, VA a woman received minor injuries when lightning struck her near the front door of her house. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1995: A heat wave began on this date across the southwest and continued through the 29th. Record highs included: Coachella, CA: 120 °F, Phoenix, AZ: 118 °F, San Jacinto, CA: 113 °F, Tucson, AZ: 113 °F, Riverside, CA: 112°, Banning, CA: 111 °F, Moreno Valley, CA: 111 °F, Sun City, CA: 111 °F and Yucaipa: 110 °F and Winslow, AZ: 103 °F. A male tourist from Ohio drowned in a rip current at Lake Worth Beach, FL. Strong easterly winds associated with the approach of Tropical Storm Erin caused the rip current. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: On this date 6.68 inches of rain fell at Oak Grove, AL, west of Birmingham. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: Across the western U.S. record highs included: Thermal, CA: 123°, Borrego Springs, CA: 119°, Yuma, AZ: 118°, Yakima, WA: 106°, Medford, OR: 106°, Eugene, OR: 105°, Olympia, WA: 99°, Seattle, WA: 95° and Quillayute, WA: 86°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: A severe thunderstorm produced a 100 mph wind gust 8 miles north of Hardin; MT. Several 5 to 6 foot diameter trees were blown down. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: A severe weather outbreak produced tornadoes and downburst wind damage across parts of Lower Michigan. A tornado with top winds around 80 mph touched down about one mile east of Augusta in Kalamazoo County. The tornado passed through Fort Custer in western Calhoun County, about one mile northwest of the Battle Creek airport. The damage path was approximately 800 yards wide and path length was 3 miles long. After the tornado ended, downburst damage continued for several more miles in Calhoun County. A severe thunderstorm struck a campground and mobile home park along Swan Lake in southern Allegan County. Trees were blown down onto mobile homes and small boats were blown out of the lake. Top winds with the downburst were estimated at 70 mph. Locally heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding affected parts of Ohio. Among the worst hit places were Dayton and Wilmington with 3.77 inches and 3.72 inches of rain respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: The Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993: Rising water stopped all rail traffic through Kansas City, MO. Flood crests from the Missouri and Kansas Rivers pushed toward Kansas City, MO at the same time, prompting fears that the crests would arrive simultaneously, pushing water over the city's flood control levees. Fortunately, the crests arrived six hours apart, with water levels just lapping at the very tops of the levees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: Powhatan County, VA a woman received minor injuries when lightning struck her near the front door of her house. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1995: A heat wave began on this date across the southwest and continued through the 29th. Record highs included: Coachella, CA: 120 °F, Phoenix, AZ: 118 °F, San Jacinto, CA: 113 °F, Tucson, AZ: 113 °F, Riverside, CA: 112°, Banning, CA: 111 °F, Moreno Valley, CA: 111 °F, Sun City, CA: 111 °F and Yucaipa: 110 °F and Winslow, AZ: 103 °F. A male tourist from Ohio drowned in a rip current at Lake Worth Beach, FL. Strong easterly winds associated with the approach of Tropical Storm Erin caused the rip current. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

Big heat continued around this time in both 1993 and 1995 !!

[SACRUS]

 

 

Rain / storms approaching the NW/NJ border

 

 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not supposed to be 100 anywhere tomorrow, thats for Tuesday and Wednesday.

But the 0z Euro dropped its highs for Monday compared to the GFS. Thinking it’s the Euro having better representation of the smoke. The only day the Euro has 100° is on Wednesday. It’s possible that this would have been a 3 day run of reaching 100° without any smoke.
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aerosol-forecasts?base_time=202507270000&layer_name=composition_aod550&projection=classical_north_america&valid_time=202508010000