July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[qg_omega]

We do not need rain 

[steve392]

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

My lawn has brown spots from blight, disease, from too much moisture.

I have large dead spots from fungus getting out of hand.  Gotta do a mini-renovation in September. 

[Dan76]

56 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We do not need rain 

Tell that to my lawn.

[doncat]

No measurable rain here for 10 days, but that was after a 2.91" deluge on day 11.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:


 

EWR: 92
TEB: 90
PHL: 90
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 87
LGA: 87
TTN: 86
JFK: 85  * readings back to normal
ACY: 85
ISP: 84
BLM: 81 * missing readings  / no intra hour highs

[TheClimateChanger]

A couple locations in far northern New York weren’t far from reaching record lows and record highs on consecutive days. Massena tied a record low of 47F yesterday, but fell 2F short of today’s record high. Plattsburgh missed a record low by 1F yesterday and missed a record high by 1F today.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Please stop drinking, washing clothes, showering, washing the car, watering the lawn and some other everyday stuff. That aquifer under the sand bar needs some help

And where is it that the water comes from that comes out of those hoses? Rain maybe? Nah...

My water bill for the past month was 9 dollars lol. (I got a credit because they overcharged me for the previous month.)  Not having a lawn saves a lot on watering costs. Not having a lawn has a number of environmental benefits too.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

We do not need rain 

Yep, reservoir levels are at 93%, 3% above normal.

[wdrag]

No thread Fri-Sun but have no changes on expectations...NYC-KEWR 100F has the least certainty.   sct svr, iso FF both Fri afternoon-Sunday.  Iso 72 hr total 5+. Will recheck with a little more time to digest tomorrow morning 6A. Plan on active Fri aft and Sunday. 

 

[psv88]

85 at home today, was upper 70s and beautiful in Newport all week. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

I do not need rain 

I fixed it for you. Speak for you’re location. This area contains many micro climates. Parts of the east end of the island received .05” during the big New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley flood event. It’s like claiming a region was hit by a hurricane because of a micro burst. Something that is still open to interpretation with colonial weather observations.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we have had plenty of rain, one can argue it's too much rain.  This is our first four day period without rain since early June.  I only expect or want rain one day per week at most.

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? 
During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. 
The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here.

I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory. 

[Monty]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? 
During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. 
The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here.

I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory. 

If he drives around, he had better have one hell of a data plan. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Is that Xmacis?

Yes. The most extreme rainfall event if that era was in August 1843. There  are some accounts of them calling it the great flood of 1843.

1843-08-05

74

61

67.5

-10.1

0

3

15.00

The coldest winter of that era was 1867-1868 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	24.7	0
-	1867-1868	24.7	23
2	1917-1918	25.0	17
3	1904-1905	25.3	1
4	1892-1893	25.4	40
5	1872-1873	25.7	17
6	1874-1875	26.2	13
7	1919-1920	26.7	25
8	1880-1881	27.0	15
9	1935-1936	27.1	0
-	1855-1856	27.1	11
10	1976-1977	27.6	0

The global temperatures were still cold enough in 1982 just before the baseline rise in 1983 for the most impressive April cold and snow going back to 1843. So the climate in the late 70s and early 80s wasn’t that far removed from the cold of the mid 1800s.

The low max at Newark of 30° following the April blizzard still stands to this day beating anything from that era. Plus the 12.0” of snow on 4-6-82 is still the latest foot of snow ever recorded at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1982	30	0
2	1938	32	0
3	1898	33	0
-	1862	33	1
5	1919	34	2
-	1896	34	1
-	1874	34	1
-	1868	34	1

 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1982	04-06 (1982)	12.8	02-11 (1983)	14.0	310
1915	04-03 (1915)	15.8	-	-	-
1956	03-19 (1956)	12.7	-	-	-
1852	03-17 (1852)	12.0	-	-	-
1941	03-08 (1941)	12.0	-	-	-
1960	03-03 (1960)	12.5	12-12 (1960)	16.7	283

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? 
During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. 
The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here.

I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory. 

I can't be concerned with a measly 4 days without rain when the number one killer on the planet is flooding and we've seen hundreds of people die from flooding.  I wouldn't mind if we didn't see rain for another month.  Having a lawn isn't important to me and I'm used to not seeing rain in the summer.  Our reservoirs are at 93% there really is no need for rain.  We get synoptic rains 9 months out of the year, there is zero need for that kind of rain in the summer.  Summer is supposed to be our dry season, I've been used to dry summers my entire life living here, I'm not sure where you got the idea that we're supposed to have a tropical rain forest kind of climate.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? 
During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. 
The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here.

I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory. 

I'm also used to seeing dry lawns when I drive around, it's normal around here in the summer and nothing to be concerned about.  Lawns are ornamental only and serve no environmental purpose whatsoever.  In the storm you referenced I got about 1.5 inches of rain.  You're acting like we haven't had any rain in 8 weeks.  We do NOT need any rain, our area is used to having dry summers, that is NORMAL for here.  As a matter of fact, the Long Islanders I know who grow grapes and make wine LOVE dry summers.  The only people I know who whine about lack of rain are weather weenies like you.  I can understand wanting snow in the winter, I see ZERO reason for ANYONE to want rain during the beach season in the summer, you get rain 9 months out of the year, we need a break from rain for a few weeks so people can enjoy their beach season.

 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes. The most extreme rainfall event if that era was in August 1843. There  are some accounts of them calling it the great flood of 1843.

1843-08-05

74

61

67.5

-10.1

0

3

15.00

The coldest winter of that era was 1867-1868 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	24.7	0
-	1867-1868	24.7	23
2	1917-1918	25.0	17
3	1904-1905	25.3	1
4	1892-1893	25.4	40
5	1872-1873	25.7	17
6	1874-1875	26.2	13
7	1919-1920	26.7	25
8	1880-1881	27.0	15
9	1935-1936	27.1	0
-	1855-1856	27.1	11
10	1976-1977	27.6	0

The global temperatures were still cold enough in 1982 just before the baseline rise in 1983 for the most impressive April cold and snow going back to 1843. So the climate in the late 70s and early 80s wasn’t that far removed from the cold of the mid 1800s.

The low max at Newark of 30° following the April blizzard still stands to this day beating anything from that era. Plus the 12.0” of snow on 4-6-82 is still the latest foot of snow ever recorded at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1982	30	0
2	1938	32	0
3	1898	33	0
-	1862	33	1
5	1919	34	2
-	1896	34	1
-	1874	34	1
-	1868	34	1

 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1982	04-06 (1982)	12.8	02-11 (1983)	14.0	310
1915	04-03 (1915)	15.8	-	-	-
1956	03-19 (1956)	12.7	-	-	-
1852	03-17 (1852)	12.0	-	-	-
1941	03-08 (1941)	12.0	-	-	-
1960	03-03 (1960)	12.5	12-12 (1960)	16.7	283

That's hard to digest Chris, the climate was already markedly warming in the 1950s.....

As a matter of fact some of our greatest heatwaves were in the 40s and 50s.  Those have not been matched since.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I fixed it for you. Speak for you’re location. This area contains many micro climates. Parts of the east end of the island received .05” during the big New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley flood event. It’s like claiming a region was hit by a hurricane because of a micro burst. Something that is still open to interpretation with colonial weather observations.

 

I know a lot of east enders who grow grapes those guys love their dry summers.  The best Long Island wines come from dry summers.

Look I would understand if the reservoirs were at 60%, but they are above normal at 93%, there is no need for rain.  Wait until they drop below 90% at least.

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know a lot of east enders who grow grapes those guys love their dry summers.  The best Long Island wines come from dry summers.

Look I would understand if the reservoirs were at 60%, but they are above normal at 93%, there is no need for rain.  Wait until they drop below 90% at least.

The need for rain is more than just reservoir and well levels. Again, I’m not fretting, but the vegetation that doesn’t grow in a reservoir could use a drink. It’s not the end of the world but it’s reality. If some brush fires get going soon I’m sure all the first responders will find solace knowing that the reservoirs are full. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

The need for rain is more than just reservoir and well levels. Again, I’m not fretting, but the vegetation that doesn’t grow in a reservoir could use a drink. It’s not the end of the world but it’s reality. If some brush fires get going soon I’m sure all the first responders will find solace knowing that the reservoirs are full. 

I understand; tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers, they all need a lot of rain (I used to grow them, now I grow only flowers-- they need less watering lol).  It's a fine line between rain and fungus/mold though ;-)  I wouldn't mind rain Saturday night, it wouldn't interrupt anyone's beach plans.

[WestBabylonWeather]

What is the timing on the storms that are going to be crossing LI later? 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's hard to digest Chris, the climate was already markedly warming in the 1950s.....

As a matter of fact some of our greatest heatwaves were in the 40s and 50s.  Those have not been matched since.

 

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

Wasn't 2014 much cooler than 2010-2013-- we had less than 10 90 degree days in 2014.

Many of those long heatwave records and number of 95+ degree days and number of 100+ degree days  from summers like 1953 and 1955 and 1966 have not been matched since.

 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

What is the timing on the storms that are going to be crossing LI later? 

Looks like mid to late afternoon. Hopefully if they come from the N in CT they hold together better than usual. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

wow 1944 and 1949 were even better than 1953 and 1955 (although the latter two were more concentrated and even more extreme at their peak.)

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

Wasn't the summer of 1984 much cooler than the historic summer of 1983 (my first summer on Long Island, after we moved from Brooklyn in November of 1982, my two benchmark Long Island events were the February 1983 Blizzard and the historic Summer of 1983.)

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

Having 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, one right after the other was pretty wild too-- the only interruption was 1992 and that was because of Pinatubo erupting.

 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't the summer of 1984 much cooler than the historic summer of 1983 (my first summer on Long Island, after we moved from Brooklyn in November of 1982, my two benchmark Long Island events were the February 1983 Blizzard and the historic Summer of 1983.)

 

The last cool summer here was in 2014. But it wasn’t as cool as 2009 which had the coolest June and July since the 1940s. Our summers switched to much warmer and 2010. So there have been no cool summers with 15 or lower 90° days since the 15-16 baseline jump in temperatures. We would frequently get a few warmer summers followed a much cooler one. Now it’s all well above the historical 90° norms with no cool summers anymore. As you can see on the charts below, we had plenty of those cooler summers in the 1940s and 1950s. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
-	1946	12	0
7	2004	13	0
8	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
-	1956	14	0
11	2014	15	0
-	1976	15	0
-	1969	15	0
-	1960	15	0
-	1942	15	0
-	1940	15	0

 

Coldest June-July since 1940Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1940-07-31	71.5	0
2	2009-07-31	71.6	0
3	1947-07-31	71.7	0
4	1958-07-31	72.2	0
-	1946-07-31	72.2	0
5	1945-07-31	72.4	0
6	1956-07-31	72.5	0
7	1985-07-31	72.8	0
8	1951-07-31	72.9	0
-	1950-07-31	72.9	0
-	1941-07-31	72.9	0
9	2000-07-31	73.0	0
10	1967-07-31	73.1	0
-	1962-07-31	73.1	0
-	1948-07-31	73.1	0
-	1942-07-31	73.1	0

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yes. The most extreme rainfall event if that era was in August 1843. There  are some accounts of them calling it the great flood of 1843.

1843-08-05

74

61

67.5

-10.1

0

3

15.00

The coldest winter of that era was 1867-1868 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	24.7	0
-	1867-1868	24.7	23
2	1917-1918	25.0	17
3	1904-1905	25.3	1
4	1892-1893	25.4	40
5	1872-1873	25.7	17
6	1874-1875	26.2	13
7	1919-1920	26.7	25
8	1880-1881	27.0	15
9	1935-1936	27.1	0
-	1855-1856	27.1	11
10	1976-1977	27.6	0

The global temperatures were still cold enough in 1982 just before the baseline rise in 1983 for the most impressive April cold and snow going back to 1843. So the climate in the late 70s and early 80s wasn’t that far removed from the cold of the mid 1800s.

The low max at Newark of 30° following the April blizzard still stands to this day beating anything from that era. Plus the 12.0” of snow on 4-6-82 is still the latest foot of snow ever recorded at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1982	30	0
2	1938	32	0
3	1898	33	0
-	1862	33	1
5	1919	34	2
-	1896	34	1
-	1874	34	1
-	1868	34	1

 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1982	04-06 (1982)	12.8	02-11 (1983)	14.0	310
1915	04-03 (1915)	15.8	-	-	-
1956	03-19 (1956)	12.7	-	-	-
1852	03-17 (1852)	12.0	-	-	-
1941	03-08 (1941)	12.0	-	-	-
1960	03-03 (1960)	12.5	12-12 (1960)	16.7	283

Thank you. I will have to check it out once I get back from Maine next week.

[Sundog]

13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

We do not need rain 

Summer rains are almost always hit and miss and coverage can vary. 

Some spots are browning, others are good.